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Alan Kelly's Tips - Saturday, 22 August
Along with the Sky Bet Ebor (Heritage Handicap), York’s final day of the festival features the Group 1 Sky Bet City Of York Stakes.
The ITV Racing cameras will cover the first four races on the Knavesmire together with a couple of races on the Roodee at Chester
1:50pm York - Geryon (Each-Way)
John & Thady Gosden’s Damysus will appreciate this drop back to Group 3 level, the mount of James Doyle last seen finishing third behind Wednesday’s Juddmonte International winner Item in the extended 1m 2f Sky Bet York Stakes on the Knavesmire last month.
Today’s shorter trip is probably ideal for the Frankel colt, who has to concede weight to his 12 rivals. After finishing second in Goodwood’s Group 3 Gordon Stakes last time, Ger Lyon’s Lope De Vega colt GERYON (Each-Way) returns to the same kind of trip as when running out a comfortable winner of Leopardstown’s Meld Stakes two weeks earlier.
Gary Carroll’s mount lost nothing in defeat at the Sussex racecourse, only getting a clear run when the winner Enceladus had gone for home. In receipt of 7lb from Damysus, the Irish runner gets the vote.
Recommendation: Geryon (Each-Way) - 11/2 with William Hill (4 places)
2:05pm Chester - Asuka (Nap)
While George Boughey’s charge could have been better drawn (12 of 14) his lightly-raced Night Of Thunder gelding ASUKA (Nap) is likely to be held-up anyway by the title-chasing Billy Loughnane for this extended 7f contest, a horse who may well, in time, turn out to be better than a 92-rated handicapper.
This will be the 5th start for the Late Sheikh Mohammed Obaid-owned four-year-old, whose only defeat to date came when just failing to catch Ed Bethell’s Rogue Invincible on Wolverhampton’s all-weather track at the beginning of last month.
Making his handicap debut at Thirsk three weeks ago, Asuka was good value for more than the head which separated him from runner-up Angel Hunter, the pair clear of the other 13 runners. The selection still looked a work in progress at the North Yorkshire racecourse and is a good prospect for connections going forward.
Recommendation: Asuka (Nap) - 3/1 with William Hill
2:25pm York - Vantage Code (Each-Way)
No match for Maltese Cross and company in Longchamp’s Group 1 Grand Prix de Paris, Joseph O’Brien’s narrow Queen’s Vase winner Limestone makes his handicap debut in this valuable Melrose (Heritage Handicap) off a mark of 105. While Ryan Moore’s mount has a touch of class, the New Bay colt will do well to concede between 8lb and 21lb to his 16 rivals.
In a race featuring plenty of unexposed young stayers, the vote goes to the Emmet Mullins-trained VANTAGE CODE (Each-Way). The mount of Rory Cleary only won a minor 1m 6f handicap at the Galway Festival on the final day of last month, but such was the ease of that 12 length victory over his 17 rivals that the handicapper put the gelding up 15lb to a mark of 84.
While this is a big step-up in class for the son of Ghaiyyath, the each-way selection comes from a stable always to be respected when contesting valuable handicaps on both sides of the Irish Sea.
Recommendation: Vantage Code (Each-Way) - 14/1 with BetMGM (5 places)
2:40pm Chester - Lazy Griff
Godolphin’s By The Book is one of jockey Billy Loughnane’s best rides on the Chester card, the son of Frankel more at home in today’s Listed class as opposed to taking on the likes of Calandagan when last of 6 in a Group 1 at Meydan back in March. With the Andrew Balding stable in such good form, it would be no surprise to see his Fantasy World go well, although Rob Hornby’s mount failed to make an impact over hurdles for Nicky Henderson earlier in the year.
Despite having to concede weight to his 7 rivals, I think Charlie Johnston’s LAZY GRIFF can prove up to the task in the hands of jockey Callum Shepherd. Runner-up to Lambourn in last year’s Derby at Epsom (3rd at the Curragh 22 days later), the son of Protectionist wasn’t knocked about when unable to match strides with Scandinavia and Trawlerman in the Goodwood Cup last time, but a repeat of his Sandown victory of last month would make him hard to beat in this company.
Recommendation: Lazy Griff - 9/4 with Betfred
3:00pm York - Notable Speech
This race has been on my radar for some time for the William Haggas-trained Lake Forest, narrowly beaten in last year’s renewal when failing to get the clearest of runs. Well fancied for last month’s Group 1 Sussex Stakes (supported into 17/2 from 16/1), the five-year-old was once again a victim of circumstance, as Cieren Fallon’s mount finished the race full of running after being trapped on the rails inside the last couple of furlongs.
I would have been more confident regarding the chances of the No Nay Never gelding but for the rain which has fallen on the Knavesmire over the last few days. With that in mind, I am switching camps in favour of Godolphin’s NOTABLE SPEECH, who is clearly not a fan of Ascot; William Buick’s is mount better judged on his Lockinge victory of three months ago, a repeat of which would make the Qipco 2000 Guineas winner of two years ago hard to beat. Best of those at a double-figure price may be Wathnan Racing’s Flora Of Bermuda.
Recommendation: Notable Speech - 3/1 with bet365
3:35pm York - Hopewell Rock (Each-Way)
Hopefully, the ground on the Knavesmire is no worse than good to soft for Saturday’s feature handicap as I am keen on the chances of the George Boughey-trained HOPEWELL ROCK (Each-Way), who did us a favour when winning a Class 2 contest over today’s trip on the final day of Glorious Goodwood.
The form of that race received a boost when the runner-up, Small Fry, ran out a convincing winner of an extended 2m handicap at York on Wednesday. 1lb Well-in under a 4lb penalty, Callum Rodriguez’ mount would not want the ground as testing as when 9th of 22 in Doncaster’s November Handicap on his final outing of last season.
The New Bay gelding does handle some give in the ground but is at his best on genuine good going. The Wathnan Racing-owned four-year-old improved for the step-up to a mile and three quarters at the Sussex racecourse and looks just the type for this £500k Heritage Handicap, the race which dates back to 1843 and as competitive as ever, but far from one of the strongest recent renewals.
Leading Irish jumps trainer Willie Mullins is represented by both Mr Hollywood and Love Me Tender. The latter, with William Buick in the saddle, just makes the cut on his first start for the Closutton handler since joining the stable from Germany and is worth noting for any market confidence.
Recommendation: Hopewell Rock (Each-Way) - 12/1 with Paddy Power (6 places)
4:10pm York - Realign (Each-Way)
A typically wide-open sprint handicap on the Knavesmire, a race in which the draw is likely to play a leading role, as has been the case throughout the week. Geoff Oldroyd’s Air Force One has a 5lb penalty to carry for his win here on the opening day, but has been handed a good draw in stall 3. Wathnan Racing are responsible for 3 of the 20 runners, including Coral Stewards’ Cup winner Evening Saigon.
However, I think it is worth taking a chance on Wathnan’s REALIGN (Each-Way) for trainer William Haggas and jockey Tom Marquand. The Blue Point gelding has been set some stiff tests this season but wasn’t beaten far in both the Wokingham and Stewards’ Cup. The four-year-old won’t be inconvenienced by the likely soft conditions and is favourably drawn in stall 2.
Recommendation: Realign (Each-Way) - 16/1 with Coral (5 places)
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Free Bets in 2008.
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