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Another excellent week with 5 winning days out of 7 and 5 from 6 winning naps (one non-runner) resulting in a profit of +£16.83 over the seven days.
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Alan Kelly's Tips - Tuesday, 3 February
While the ground at both Taunton in Britain and Fairyhouse in Ireland is sure to be very testing, the third jumps card on Tuesday at Carlisle is expected to take place under conditions described as being on the soft side of good.
3:05pm Carlisle - Celestial Fashion (Nap)
An 18 length winner at Wetherby 12 days ago, Ian Duncan’s ultra-consistent CELESTIAL FASHION (Nap) should take plenty of beating in an effort to make it 3 from 7 over fences, despite now racing off a career-high mark of 102 in this Challenger Mares’ Chase Series Qualifier.
The only time the eight-year-old has finished out of the first two over fences was when stepping-up to 3m for the first time at Ayr on her penultimate start. After holding every chance in the soft conditions at the Scottish track, the mare weakened to finish fourth, looking as if she would be suited by dropping back in distance.
Returning to a more appropriate extended 2m 3f at Wetherby, Callum Bewley’s mount never looked in any danger, going clear from 2 out after making all. While today’s trip of 2m 5f is probably as far as she wants to go, the forecast good to soft ground will make the race less of a stamina test.
The weights are headed by Joe Tizzard’s Ilovethenightlife, who, while possessing plenty of ability, has disappointed in her four starts this season. A bigger danger to Celestial Fashion may be the Russell/Scudamore contender Lady In The Park, although the stable could be in better form and the eight-year-old has an absence of over 9 months to overcome.
Recommendation: Celestial Fashion (Nap) - 7/4 with bet365
4:04pm Carlisle - Shadow Chaser & Rob Roy Macgregor
My two against the field for this Go North Red Rum Series Qualifier are a couple of unexposed chasers in Sandy Thomson’s ROB ROY MACGREGOR, and SHADOW CHASER, who will be having his first start for trainer Mark Walford since the seven-year-old left the Thomson stable just a few days ago.
The latter made a promising start over fences when runner-up to fellow rival Uptown Harry at Newcastle last month and can reverse the form with that 12-year-old on 8lb better terms. Jamie Hamilton’s mount failed to win in nine attempts over hurdles but went close on his first start for Thomson at Ayr in November when beating all bar favourite Tread Softly Now and looks sure to be winning soon over fences now stepping up to a more suitable trip.
Rob Roy Macgregor proved disappointing over hurdles, despite attracting support on several occasions, but produced his best performance over the smaller obstacles when finishing 3rd of 16 in a handicap at Ayr last March before being switched to fences.
While showing only minor promise on his first three outings over the bigger obstacles, Patrick Wadge’s mount was supported into odds of 5/1 at Ayr on his most recent start, staying-on strongly in the closing stages to beat all bar Nicky Richards’ lightly-raced Big Zouk. That run was a big improvement on the gelding’s first three efforts over fences; off a mark of just 84, Rob Roy Macgregor looks more than capable of winning a race of this nature.
Recommendations: Shadow Chaser - 4/1 with bet365 & Rob Roy Macgregor - 4/1 with bet365
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
You can follow Alan Kelly on Twitter for more racing insight.
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