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With 15 winning days out of the last 17, another very good week with a profit of +£18.37, making it the third successful week in a row, the highlights being the victories of Sea Thrift (11/1 on Thursday) and Pep Talking (16/1 with a 5p R4 on Saturday).
- P/L for the week ending Sunday, 2 November: +£18.37
- P/L for the year 2025 to date: +£60.94
- P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
- P/L since 1st September 2022: +£546.93
Alan Kelly's Tips - Tuesday, 4 November
Light rain is forecast for the meetings at Redcar (flat) and Warwick (jumps) on Tuesday afternoon which are likely to make conditions at both courses on the soft side of good.
1:55pm Redcar - Obito
Alan King’s stable is in good form at the moment (4 winners from their last 7 runners as I write) and his Alcarath is interesting on his handicap debut in this mile and a quarter contest off an opening mark of 90. The Acclamation gelding has improved with each of his three runs in novice company, most recently when defeating odds-on favourite Gamai by eight and a half lengths at Epsom towards the end of September.
The Gosden’s runner-up has been beaten again since then, putting a question mark over the value of that runaway victory of Rossa Ryan’s mount. While the unexposed Alcarath is greatly respected, I prefer the chances of one of the other 3 three-year-olds in the race, OBITO, one of two contenders from the David O’Meara stable.
After winning a handicap at Ayr over today’s trip in August, the Blue Point gelding has found one to good on each of his three subsequent starts the following month, at Haydock, Redcar and Ayr. David Nolan’s mount can be classed as unfortunate, as the winners of those three races, King Of The Sea, Debora’s Dream and Cisco Disco have recorded 8 unbeaten wins between them over the last few months.
In receipt of 8lb from Alcarath, Obito is fancied to record another well-deserved success with conditions to suit.
Recommendation: Obito - 9/2 with bet365
2:02pm Warwick - Go West (Nap)
An informative novices chase with 11lb covering the marks of all 5 runners, headed by the 128-rated pair of Jipcot and Go West. The former will be having his fifth start over fences, but has yet to open his account and is rated 3lb higher over hurdles. Following some decent runs over the smaller obstacles last season, the Jonjo & A J O’Neill-trained six-year-old is worth another try at chasing, although preference is for Paul Nicholl’s chasing debutante GO WEST (Nap).
Harry Cobden's mount made all of the running to win novice hurdles at Fakenham, Taunton and Kempton last season before stepping up in class to contest a classy Listed race at Perth, won by Willie Mullins’ Kiss Will, with Dan Skelton’s 138-rated Royal Infantry taking the runner-up spot.
Running far too freely, it was no surprise to see Go West eventually being pulled-up after attempting to make all of the running when racing over that 3m trip for the first time. Go West’s biggest asset is his slick jumping, and I expect the son of Westerner to make his mark over the bigger obstacles in the months ahead.
Recommendation: Go West (Nap) - 9/4 with bet365
2:32pm Warwick - Goodbyemick (Each-Way)
The safest proposition in this 2m handicap hurdle is probably last year’s winner Ez Tiger, who has been running consistently well since taking this Class 5 contest 12 months ago, most recently when recording a 5th victory over the smaller obstacles with a convincing success off a 4lb lower mark at Plumpton two weeks ago.
Alex Hales’ charge now runs off a career-high mark of 101 however, in which case it could be worth taking a chance on the Max Comley-trained GOODBYEMICK (Each-Way), who receives a handy 16lb from Bryan Carver’s mount. For a relatively new trainer (took out a full licence 12 months ago), Comely is a name to look out for in the future, the Cotswold handler successful with two of his last three runners.
While Goodbyemick has yet to finish any better than fourth in 7 starts over hurdles, the mount of David Bass was backed into favouritism at Exeter last month, only to weaken into 4th place after taking up the running 2 out before idling close home. The seven-year-old, visored for the first time, clearly has ability, and if ridden with a bit more restraint on this occasion, should be capable of winning a race of this nature.
Recommendation: Goodbyemick (Each-Way) - 14/1 with bet365 (3 places)
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
You can follow Alan Kelly on Twitter for more racing insight.
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