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An excellent week with five winning days out of six (a minor loss of -£0.25 on Thursday) resulting in healthy profit of +£18.32.
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Alan Kelly's Tips - Saturday, 2 May
Newmarket stages the first Classic of the season on Saturday afternoon courtesy of the Betfred 2000 Guineas, the final leg of ITV Racing's seven-race coverage.
The Group 1 contest which dates back to 1809 is due to get underway at 3:35pm.
1:30pm Goodwood - Argentine Tango
This will be the 14th career start for the Tim Easterby-trained ARGENTINE TANGO, the daughter of Mattmu, a winner at Pontefract, Beverley and Newmarket as a juvenile, the most recent when taking a Listed race at the July meeting at headquarters.
While David Allan’s mount ended her two-year-old campaign with seven subsequent defeats, there was a lot to like about her first outing at three when finishing a close fourth in the Group 3 Prix Sigy at Chantilly last month. In an open Listed race for fillies, the northern raider gets the tentative vote.
Recommendation: Argentine Tango - 8/1 with bet365
1:45pm Newmarket - Double Rush
An impressive winner at Newmarket’s Craven meeting on his first start for the Andrew Balding stable, the ex Charles Hills-trained DOUBLE RUSH is due to go up 13lb in the future but runs in this £100k Heritage Handicap with a 5lb penalty, making the son of Blue Point an attractive proposition off a mark of 95 for a horse who may well prove up to Listed class at the very least.
Not surprisingly, Shane Foley’s mount is no bigger than 6/5 in the early betting exchanges since the final field of 10 was declared for this 6f contest. While those odds are very short for a sprint handicap, Double Rush should prove up to the task, the main danger likely to come in the shape of Clive Cox’s Addison Grey, who was just touched off in a 16-runner handicap at Newbury two weeks ago.
Recommendation: Double Rush - 11/10 with William Hill
2:05pm Goodwood - Blue Bolt (Nap)
There's a decent prize to be won with the Charlie Johnston-trained Arisaig at some point this season, probably when I decide to oppose a mare I have backed on numerous occasions in the past, but now on a losing run of 13.
Jamie Spencer's mount found only Andrew Balding’s Mister Winston too good on her reappearance at the Craven meeting, but may have to settle for a minor placing once again behind another horse from the Kingsclere stable in the shape of Juddmonte’s BLUE BOLT (Nap).
Colin Keene’s mount progressed from winning a Listed race at Sandown in July to finishing second in a Group 3 on that course the following month, before ending the year with a creditable second behind multiple Group 1 winner Fallen Angel in Newmarket’s Sun Chariot Stakes in the autumn.
The daughter of Blue Point looks the type to improve again as a four-year-old and can take this Listed race before stepping back up into Group company.
Recommendation: Blue Bolt (Nap) - 11/8 with bet365
2:20pm Newmarket - Erzindjan & Botanical
Andrew Balding’s Mister Winston will be fancied by many to follow up his win over a furlong shorter on this course at the Craven meeting, while top weight Bullet Point, runner-up in last year’s Royal Hunt Cup, could prove to be better than a handicapper as the season develops. However, my two against the field for this £100k Heritage Handicap are Karl Burke’s BOTANICAL and ERZINDJAN from the TJ Kent stable.
The former, on his first start for Burke since leaving trainer George Boughey, ran a cracker off top weight to finish fourth in Doncaster’s historic Lincoln Handicap, beaten less than two lengths. Off the same mark of 104, Clifford Lee’s mount would have an outstanding chance based on his John Smith’s second to the classy Enfjaar (receiving 8lb) as a three-year-old.
An unlucky fourth of 23 behind Botanical’s stablemate Boiling Point in last year’s Cambridgeshire when failing to get anything like a clear run, Erzindjal has a valuable handicap within him this season and looks overpriced at the 14/1 currently available.
Recommendations: Erzindjan - 10/1 with BetVictor & Botanical - 7/1 with BetVictor
2:40pm Thirsk - Mirsky (Each-Way)
A wide-open Thirsk Hunt Cup, the vote going to the seven-year-old MIRSKY (Each-Way), one of two runners for trainer David O’Meara, the other being Rhoscolyn, the mount of 7lb claimer Conor Whiteley. The Siyouni gelding has been competing in many valuable 7f/1m handicaps since joining O’Meara from France two years ago, the mount of Mark Winn successful in races at Thirsk and Epsom around this time last year.
Third on his reappearance at Musselburgh last month with a couple of today’s rivals behind, Mirsky has clearly been primed with today’s race in mind and looks sure to go well.
Recommendation: Mirsky (Each-Way) - 11/1 with Paddy Power (4 places)
2:55pm Newmarket - Night Raider
One of the most open renewal of this Group 3 Palace House Stakes which I can remember, the field of 14 headed by Prix de L’Abbaye winner Asfoora. Now in the care of trainer Lemos De Souza, Oisin Murphy’s mount has a Group 1 penalty to carry on his first start for 7 months. In a race where it is difficult to rule out any of the runners, the vote goes to Karl Burke’s NIGHT RAIDER.
The Dark Angel gelding set a scorching pace in last year’s July Cup, having most of his rivals in trouble until weakening inside the closing stages to finish 11th, beaten a little over 5 lengths. James Doyle’s mount has shown blistering early pace in the past, and over today’s minimum trip is expected to make a bold bid from the front.
Recommendation: Night Raider - 8/1 with Betfred
3:35pm Newmarket - Distant Storm
The first Classic of the season is unlikely to unearth a potential superstar among the field of 15 runners. While George Boughey’s Bow Echo and Ballydoyle’s Gstaad have strong claims based on their juvenile form, I fancy the combination of owner Godolphin, trainer Charlie Appleby and jockey William Buick to record a third successive victory in the race following those of Notable Speech in 2024 and Ruling Court 12 months ago.
While the stable’s King’s Trail is unbeaten on both of his starts to date, they came on Kempton’s all-weather surface, whereas stablemate DISTANT STORM ended last season finishing third in the Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes behind Andrew Balding’s Gewan and fellow rival Gstaad.
Doing his best work at the end of that race after being held up, the son of Night Of Thunder is better judged on his previous effort when running out a wide margin winner of Newmarket’s Tattersalls Stakes. Distant Storm has been trained with this race in mind for some time and I expect a big run from this talented colt.
With the John & Thady Gosden stable in such good form at the moment, it would be dangerous to rule out their comfortable Craven winner Oxagon, while ‘Fozzy’ Stack’s Thesecretadversary is capable of making the frame at a big price.
Recommendation: Distant Storm - 9/2 with Coral
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
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