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Latest Profit & Loss Figures
A good start to Grand National week with the 9/1 victory of Soldier In Milan in Monday’s Irish Grand National. However, the best we could manage in Saturday’s feature race was the seventh place finish of our 50/1 long-range pick Final Orders.
The rain which fell at Aintree on Friday night and during racing on Saturday didn’t help the chances of our ante-post selection.
- P/L for the week ending Sunday, 12 April: -£11.25
- P/L for the year 2026 to date: +£57.35
- P/L for the year 2025: +£22.38
- P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
- P/L since 1st September 2022: +£558.01
Alan Kelly's Tips - Thursday, 16 April
The final day of Newmarket’s Craven meeting features two Group 3 races, the Zyn Abernant Stakes at 3:00pm followed by the Betway Craven Stakes at 3:35pm. With little rain forecast, the ground is expected to remain good (watered).
1:50pm Newmarket - Treanmor (Nap)
Godolphin trainer Charlie Appleby runs both Silent Applause and TREANMOR (Nap) in this 6f handicap, the latter dropping down in trip following a couple of runs in Meydan this year. Long odds-on to win on his debut over today’s course and distance12 months ago, the son of Frankel didn’t disappoint, William Buick’s mount cruising clear of his 5 rivals without being extended.
On the back of that run, Treanmor was sent off the 5/4 favourite for Royal Ascot’s Chesham Stakes on his next start, only to finish a disappointing fifth after hanging badly to his right for much of the race. Given a break until reappearing at Meydan in January, Treanmor ran with credit on both occasions, after which he was gelded.
On his most recent start, Treanmor finished a close third behind a horse, Title Role, who has since gone on to win the Jumeirah 2000 Guineas. On his first attempt at this kind of trip, an opening handicap mark of 93 may have underestimated the ability of a horse we have yet to see the best of. Towards the bottom of the weights, Saffie Osborne rides the Pinatubo filly Albaydaa for trainer William Haggas, who is worth noting for any market support on her handicap debut.
Recommendation: Treanmor (Nap) - 4/1 with bet365
3:00pm Newmarket - Washington Heights (Each-Way)
A cracking renewal of this Group 3 sprint named in honour of one of the great sprinters of the post-war period between the late 1940’s and early 1950’s. The race was dominated by the Dick Hern-trained Boldboy in the 1970s with four victories. What this year’s renewal lacks class-wise, it certainly makes up for in its competitiveness.
While it is easy to make a case out for many of the 14 contenders, in particular Aramram, Completely Random, Diligent Harry and Quinault, who all have victories to their name this year, the vote goes to the Kevin Ryan-trained WASHINGTON HEIGHTS (Each-Way) and jockey Kevin Stott.
The six-year-old son of Washington DC won this race two years ago, beating subsequent July Cup winner Mill Stream by three quarters of a length. Just found wanting when upped to Group 1 level, Washington Heights has an excellent record at headquarters with form figures reading 2-2-1-4, the latest of which came when staying-on to finish fourth in the 5f Palace House Stakes at last year’s Guineas meeting. Kevin Stott’s mount is probably better over today’s extra furlong these days and another big run is expected.
Recommendation: Washington Heights (Each-Way) - 9/1 with bet365 (4 places)
3:35pm Newmarket - Commander’s Intent (Each-Way)
Ballydoyle’s Group 1 Futurity winner Hawk Mountain sets the standard for this 2000 Guineas Trial, the Wootton Bassett colt currently a best price 20/1 with bet365 for the first Classic of the season, four points behind the 16/1 on offer with Betvictor about fellow rival Hidden Force from the powerful Godolphin stable of Charlie Appleby.
A top price 10/1 for the Derby at Epsom, it may well be that we will not see the best of Hawk Mountain until the colt steps up to middle distances. With many of the Ballydoyle horses needing their first outing of the season, Ryan Moore’s mount is worth opposing on his reappearance.
The beautifully-bred Hidden Force, by Frankel and out of the Shamardal mare Winter Lightning, will be having his first start on turf following a couple of wins on Kempton’s all-weather surface, and is clearly a horse with huge potential. Roger Varian’s Avicenna and Karl Burke’s Hankelow are closely matched on Doncaster’s Flying Scotsman form when a nose separated the pair. However, at a big price, and with several firms going 3 places, it could be worth taking a chance on George Scott’s COMMANDER'S INTENT (Each-Way).
James Doyle's mount has a few pounds to find on ratings, but whereas most of these have bigger targets ahead, the Victor Ludorum colt could take advantage in a race which may be more open than the betting would suggest.
Recommendation: Commander’s Intent (Each-Way) - 25/1 with Betfred (3 places)
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
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