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Latest Profit & Loss Figures
After a poor start, we ended the week with a 9/1 winner on Friday before successes at 3/1, 3/1, 2/1, and 7/1 (Nap) from Saturday’s ITV Racing tips, resulting in a profit over the six days of +£11.61.
- P/L for the week ending Sunday, October 12th: +£11.61
- P/L for the year 2025 to date: -£3.17
- P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
- P/L since 1st September 2022: +£482.82
Alan Kelly's Tips - Saturday, October 18th
The ITV Racing cameras will cover all seven races on Champions Day at Ascot on Saturday afternoon, and we have selections for the whole card which features no less than five races at Group 1 level.
12:55pm Ascot - No Bet
Impressive Ascot Gold Cup winner Trawlerman should win this race for a second time, the first coming with a neck victory over Kyprios two years ago. However, in what is sure to be a tactical affair, I will pass this one over with the Gosden runner no bigger than 1/2 as of Thursday afternoon.
1:30pm Ascot - Division (Each-Way)
Odds-on with all firms as of Thursday afternoon, Godolphin’s Mill Reef Stakes winner Words Of Truth should complete a four-timer in this £250k contest if in the same kind of form. However, the Lope De Vega gelding makes little appeal at such cramped odds against a field of 13 mainly progressive juveniles.
I would rather back Wathnan Racing’s DIVISION (Each-Way) at the 11/2 currently available with Paddy Power. After making a promising debut when runner-up at Windsor in August, the Kingman colt is now unbeaten in three subsequent starts, the most recent when winning York’s Listed Rockingham Stakes seven days ago. Rated 9lb behind Charlie Appleby’s charge, I think James Doyle’s mount has the potential to prove better than his mark of 103.
Recommendation: Division (Each-Way) - 11/2 with bet365
2:05pm Ascot - Kind Of Blue (Each-Way)
Yet another wide-open Group 1 sprint in which many can be given a chance. Most of these ran in Haydock’s Betfair Sprint Cup last month, a race won by Mick Appleby’s Big Mojo, although Tom Marquand’s mount is far from guaranteed to confirm the form of that Group 1 contest.
Sixth in that race at the Merseyside racecourse was Kevin Ryan’s Inisherin, and it would be no surprise to see the Shamardal colt go close at a double-figure price. The vote, however, goes to last year’s winner KIND OF BLUE (Each-Way) from the James Fanshawe stable,
The son of Blue Point reserves his best for this time of the year and did well to finish second to Big Mojo at Haydock after being hampered 2 out before staying-on strongly inside the closing stages. A repeat of last year’s narrow victory over Swingalong and fellow rival Flora Of Bermuda should be good enough to see Kind Of Blue go close once again.
Recommendation: Kind Of Blue (Each-Way) - 7/1 with Paddy Power (4 places)
2:45pm Ascot - Estrange
Hopefully, there will be enough cut in the ground for David O’Meara’s talented grey ESTRANGE to produce her best form. The daughter of Night Of Thunder had to miss the Arc due to a minor setback, which may prove to be a blessing in disguise for Daniel Tudhope’s mount, who goes into this mile and a half contest a fresh horse on just her fourth start of the year, unlike top rated Kalpana who had a hard race when finishing 7th on the Bois De Boulogne.
No match for narrow Arc runner-up Minnie Hauk in the Yorkshire Oaks last time on ground which wouldn’t have suited, Estrange can end her season on a high with a victory in this Group 1 contest for fillies and mares worth over £300k to the winner.
Recommendation: Estrange - 4/1 with bet365
3:25pm Ascot - Docklands (Each-Way)
Impressive Irish 2000 Guineas and St James’s Palace Stakes winner Field Of Gold has been uneasy in the betting over the last few days, the grey son of Kingman last seen finishing a well-beaten fourth in Goodwood’s Sussex Stakes when clearly not right. No one would begrudge a victory for Richard Hannon’s Rosallion, who has encountered desperate luck on more than one occasion this season.
With most bookmakers offering 4 places on this Group 1 contest, it would be no great surprise to see another result similar to that of 33/1 winner Bayside Boy in 2022. One horse who reserves his best for Ascot is the James Eustace-trained DOCKLANDS (Each-Way), with form figures on the course reading 1-1-3-2-2-2-1.
A nose winner over Rosallion in the Queen Anne Stakes at the royal meeting, Tom Marquand’s mount, beaten just over a length in Deauville’s Prix Jacques le Morois last time, looks decent each-way value against the two principles at odds of around 14/1.
Recommendation: Docklands (Each-Way) - 12/1 with Betfred (4 places)
4:05pm Ascot - Calandagan (Nap)
A fascinating renewal of this Group 1 Champion Stakes in which Ombudsman and Delacroix take each other on for the third time this season, the score currently standing at one each. John & Thady Gosden’s charge was an emphatic winner over Ballydoyle’s runner in the International at York, a race in which the winner benefitted from the tactics employed by pacemaker Birr Castle.
While both horses are greatly respected, I think this potential highlight of the flat season can go to the French for the 6th time this century, courtesy of the trainer jockey combination of Francis-Henri Graffard and Mickael Barzalona, responsible for Arc winner Daryz. The horse in question being the gelding CALANDAGAN (Nap), not seen since winning the King George V1 & Queen Elizabeth Stakes on this course during the summer.
Beaten half a length by Anmaat in this race 12 months ago on soft ground, the son of Gleneagles should be more at home under today’s conditions and is fancied to go one better. Best of those at a double-figure price may be Ed Walker’s Almaqam.
Recommendation: Calandagan (Nap) - 11/4 with Coral
4:40pm Ascot - Arisaig (Each-Way)
As you would expect for this £200k Balmoral Handicap, the finale on a fascinating Champions Day, one of the most competitive one mile handicaps of the entire flat season. The Charlie Johnston stable won this with The Gatekeeper two years ago and I think it is worth giving his ARISAIG (Each-Way) another chance to open her account for the season following some excellent efforts in defeat.
The daughter of Harry Angel has performed well on previous visits to Ascot, unless scuppered by a poor draw, and has a master of Ascot’s straight course on board in Jamie Spencer. Everything looks primed for a big run from the filly, who would certainly not be winning out of turn.
Recommendation: 4:40pm Ascot - Arisaig (Each-Way) - 14/1 with Parimatch (5 places)
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
You can follow Alan Kelly on Twitter for more racing insight.
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