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A small loss of -£3.17 for the week ending Sunday, 8 February, despite three winning naps out of five, taking our recent naps total to 17 from 24.
- P/L for the week ending Sunday, 8 Feburary: -£3.17
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- P/L since 1st September 2022: +£520.87
Alan Kelly's Tips - Tuesday, 10 February
With the abandonment of a waterlogged Ffos Las, the only surviving jumps meeting in Britain on Tuesday is that of Ayr in Scotland where the ground is currently described as good to soft, soft in places.
2:05pm Ayr - Ballymackie (Nap)
A dual Irish point-to-point winner back in 2023, the Califet gelding BALLYMACKIE (Nap) was highly tried when trained by Laura Morgan last season, the eight-year-old taking on the likes of L’Eau du Sud and Jango Baie in races at Cheltenham. While totally outclassed in that kind of company, Ballymackie has now been switched to the Olly Murphy stable, the horse making his debut for new connections at Leicester over the Christmas period.
Sent off at odds of 5/6 for that 2m 4f novices’ handicap chase, Ballymackie had little trouble in beating his 7 rivals, headed by previous Uttoxeter winner Moor End. Raised 8lb to a mark of 108, Sean Bowen’s mount could still prove to be some way ahead of the handicapper and can follow up in this Go North Monet’s Garden Series Qualifier for a stable which continues in good form, despite having sent out a total of 7 seconds so far this month.
Top weight Heads Or Harps is best watched at the moment until the Russell/Scudamore stable shows signs of a revival, which leaves Fergal O’Brien’s Sleeping Satellite as the one to give the selection most to do. After winning races at Stratford and Catterick towards the end of last year, Jonathan Burke’s mount looked in the grip of the handicapper when 3rd of 4 at Musselburgh on his most recent start and may have to settle for a minor placing on this occasion.
Recommendation: Ballymackie (Nap) - 8/13 with bet365
3:35pm Ayr - Better Be Definite
The Russell/Scudamore stable are going through a bit of a lean spell at the moment with a losing run of 48 over jumps as I write. The stables’ Biglesisback had to settle for second place on her three last runs over hurdles, all at short prices, and a current mark of 107 looks quite stiff considering the daughter of Walk In The Park’s record to date.
Gordon Elliott’s Irish challenger Kasanova’s Dream is also rated 107, the six-year-old a well-beaten 6th on his handicap debut at Gowran Park last month. Donald Whillan’s Shoeshine Boy is in fine form at the moment and is on a hat-trick following recent wins over today’s course and distance.
While a big run from Craig Nicol’s mount is expected, the 10-year-old may struggle to confirm the form of his penultimate victory with the fourth horse home BETTER BE DEFINITE. Now 8lb better off for the three and a half lengths which separated the two horses, Nick Alexander’s charge, a previous course and distance winner, was staying on nicely at the end of that race and is sure to appreciate today’s less testing conditions. In receipt of weight from all of his rivals, Bruce Lynn’s mount gets the vote.
Recommendation: Better Be Definite - 7/1 with bet365
4:05pm Ayr - Jirko
Chris Kellett’s I See The Sea heads the weights for this Go North Red Rum Series Qualifier, the ex Hobbs/White-trained seven-year-old already successful for new connections courtesy of a win in a conditional jockeys’ handicap at Catterick in November.
Runner-up to Sam England’s Defence Witness at the North Yorkshire course last month, Ryan Mania’s mount looks sure to run another decent race, a remark which also applies to last month’s comfortable course and distance winner Cowboy Cooper, the 10-year-old now running off a career-high mark of 93.
However, on just his fourth start over fences, and following a couple of promising efforts on heavy ground here, this looks a good opportunity for Nick Alexander’s JIRKO to open his account over fences in the hands of jockey Bruce Lynn.
The son of Balko, despite a far from fluent round of jumping, led until after jumping the last when finishing third, beaten four lengths, behind Nicky Richards’ promising chasing debutante Big Zouk over today’s course and distance last month. Under today’s much less testing conditions, Jirko is fancied to improve upon that effort racing off the same mark of 89.
Recommendation: Jirko - 5/1 with Coral
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
You can follow Alan Kelly on Twitter for more racing insight.
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