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Alan Kelly's Tips - Tuesday, 18 November
Kelso and Lingfield stage Tuesday's jumps racing in Britain, the ground at both courses expected to ride on the soft side of good.
12.55pm Kelso - Victory Club
While the Rebecca Menzies stable could be in better form at the moment, this conditional jockeys’ handicap hurdle can provide the Stockton-On-Tees trainer with her first winner in over a fortnight courtesy of the eight-year-old VICTORY CLUB, the mount of talented claimer Charlie Maggs.
Victory Club’s sole win to date came on his final start for trainer Dan Skelton when taking a Stratford handicap during the summer by 11 lengths. Now racing off a 7lb higher mark, the Soldier Of Fortune gelding, following two defeats over the bigger obstacles for Menzies, returned to hurdles for a couple of runs at Wetherby last month, running with credit on both occasions.
After making most of the running in both of those races, Victory Club only gave best late on and can be marked up for his latest effort when running into an unexposed horse of Ben Paulings. The selection meets nothing of that calibre today and should prove too good for main rivals Be The Difference and Burning It Up.
Recommendation: Victory Club - 11/4 with bet365
1:55pm Kelso - Eagles Reprieve (Nap)
After winning a Bumper at Wetherby last December, the Russell/Scudamore–trained EAGLES REPRIEVE (Nap) has had to settle for the runner-up spot on all three outings over hurdles, the most recent when beaten by less fancied stablemate Smoke Trail on this course last month.
The Wings Of Eagles gelding is clearly well thought of and now stepping-up to today’s trip of 2m 5f for the first time, the four-year-old can finally open his account over the smaller obstacles, the 5lb claim of rider Jack Power meaning that the selection receives a handy 6lb from all of his rivals.
The Bowen stable is represented by Fairlawn Skipper, who wasn’t disgraced in finishing third in a Go North Brindisi Breeze Series Qualifier at Newcastle last time, while point-to-point winner Solid Performer is worth a check in the market on his debut for Donald McCain.
However, the main danger to Eagles Reprieve may come in the shape of Nicky Richards’ Saint Malinas, disqualified from third spot at Carlisle earlier in the year when testing positive for a banned substance when in the care of trainer Pauline Robson.
Recommendation: Eagles Reprieve (Nap) - 11/10 with bet365
2:45pm Lingfield - Realisation & Followcato
Champion jockey Sean Bowen rides the Sarah Humphrey-trained Eureka Creek in this Class 4 handicap chase, the nine-year-old sure to improve for his run at Bangor last month, the gelding’s first start for 338 days. Emma Lavelle’s Star Of Diamonds is worth noting on his chasing debut, Harry Cobden’s mount, an Irish point-to-point winner last year, and despite failing to make the frame in three starts over hurdles, was sent off favourite for two of those races.
However, my two against the field for this 2m 6f contest are Ben Pauling’s FOLLOWCATO and Charlie Longsdon’s bottom weight REALISATION. The former was fancied to make a winning debut over fences on this course last week, only to unseat jockey Ben Jones at the second fence.
Far from disgraced when seventh in a novices’ Premier Handicap at Sandown on Imperial Cup Day, the son of Notnowcato looks sure to make a better chaser than hurdler and does not look harshly treated off an opening mark of 113.
This will be the 7th chase start for Realisation, who went close to opening his account over fences when beaten a head on this course 12 months ago off a 3lb higher mark. Richie McLernon’s mount looked as if he would come on for the run when fourth at Carlisle on his reappearance last month, holding every chance until lack of condition told over the last couple of fences.
Recommendations: Realisation - 5/1 with bet365 & Followcato - 7/2 with bet365
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
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