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A decent profit of +£6.30 for the week ending Sunday, 13 September, although it ended with a poor weekend, despite 5/4 and 6/4 winning naps.
P/L for the week ending Sunday, 13 September: +£6.30
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P/L since 1st September 2022: +£667.11
Alan Kelly's Tips - Saturday, 19 September
Saturday’s ITV Racing coverage features plenty of exciting Flat action consisting of five races on the Ladbrokes Ayr Gold Cup card, while the highlight of the four races covered from the meeting at Newbury is the Group 2 Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes.
1:02pm Newbury - Starlust
With no outstanding contender for this Group 3 sprint, a tentative vote goes to the Ralph Beckett-trained STARLUST, who deserves to win for the first time in almost two years following some top class efforts, including several in Group 1 company.
A repeat of the five-year-old’s second to American speedstart Bacio in York’s Nunthorpe Stakes last month would make Rossa Ryan’s mount hard to beat in this lower grade.
Recommendation: Starlust - 7/2 with Paddy Power
1:20pm Ayr - Hawksbill
George Boughey’s McMurray is on a five-timer and may well be the answer to the outcome of this one mile handicap, although slight preference is for Richard Spencer’s HAWKSBILL, who, despite being on a losing run of 17, deserves to win a decent prize following several excellent efforts in defeat this season.
On his most recent start, the four-year-old stayed on to finish 4th of 14 in a Heritage Handicap at York’s Ebor meeting. Off a career-low mark of 92, George Wood’s mount has every chance of getting his head in front for the first time in over two years.
Recommendation: Hawksbill - 6/1 with bet365
1:37pm Newbury - Primo Lara
An average renewal of this extended 1m 5f Autumn Cup and a good opportunity for Jane Chapple-Hyam’s PRIMO LARA to make it three wins from four starts since leaving the stable of Jack Morland during the summer. Sandwiched between victories at Ascot and Kempton Park, the New Bay gelding finished 4th of 16 in a Heritage Handicap at York’s Ebor meeting, two places behind fellow rival French Duke.
Ryan Moore takes over in the saddle for the first time on a horse I think will appreciate today’s step-up in trip.
Recommendation: Primo Lara - 4/1 with bet365
1:55pm Ayr - Ice Max
A moderate renewal of this Listed Doonside Cup, the vote going to the Karl Burke-trained ICE MAX, who joined the George Boughey stable at the end of July only to return to Burke a month later. The grey son of Dark Angel is at his best with plenty of cut in the ground and boasts an excellent win ratio with 7 victories from 23 career starts.
Unlike several of his rivals, the mount of Sam James looks sure to run his race.
Recommendation: Ice Max - 3/1 with Paddy Power
2:12pm Newbury - Cut A Dash (Each-Way)
Michael Dods’ unbeaten Gimcrack winner Arapaho Gold is clearly the one they all have to beat in this 8-runner Mill Reef Stakes. At odds of around 6/5 the northern raider is short enough considering the gelding’s 3lb Group 2 penalty, in which case it could be worth taking a chance on Richard Hannon’s CUT A DASH (Each-Way).
Beaten just a length when finishing 4th in the Coventry at Royal Ascot, the son of Starspangledbanner didn’t seem at home in Goodwood’s Richmond Stakes next time before stepping-up to 7f at Deauville last month when weakening to finish 4th of the 5 runners.
Jamie Spencer's mount is better than he has shown on his last two starts and will appreciate the return to today’s 6f trip. At a big price, I expect the selection to outrun his current odds of around 20/1.
Recommendation: Cut A Dash (Each-Way) - 20/1 with bet365 (3 places)
2:30pm Ayr - Rapper’s Delight (Each-Way)
Thursday’s 20-runner sprint handicap failed to shed any light regarding any possible draw advantage for today’s Silver and Gold Cups, although that may change following Friday’s Bronze Cup (writing this on Thursday afternoon).
Fresh from her historic victory in last week’s St Leger, Saffie Osborne takes the ride on RAPPER'S DELIGHT (Each-Way) for trainer Richard Spencer, and sporting blinkers for the first time will come out of stall 3. This will be just the 12th career start for the Harry Angel gelding, who can go close if in the same kind of form as when beaten a head by stablemate Twilight Calls at Newmarket in July.
Recommendation: Rapper’s Delight (Each-Way) - 12/1 with William Hill (5 places)
2:47pm Newbury - Balzac
Third in Derby Trials at Epsom and Lingfield before finishing a well beaten 11th in the main event behind Christmas Day, Jane Chapple-Hyam’s BALZAC will be more at home in this Class 2 handicap. After being gelded during the summer, the son of Japan finished runner-up in a handicap over today’s trip at Ascot two weeks ago when partnered by an inexperienced 7lb claimer.
With Ryan Moore taking over in the saddle today, Balzac is fancied to go one better at the main expense of another horse from the classic generation in the Ed Bethell-trained Capall Rasa.
Recommendation: Balzac - 13/2 with Paddy Power
3:05pm Ayr - Silent Beauty (Nap)
Despite finishing 23rd in Royal Ascot’s Albany Stakes, 19 places behind fellow rival Dark Issue, I expect Kevin Philippart De Foy’s SILENT BEAUTY (Nap) to reverse that form with a victory in this Group 3 Firth Of Clyde (Challenge Cup).
Quietly fancied for that 6f contest at the royal meeting, the Amo Racing-owned daughter of Night Of Thunder wasn’t given a hard time of it when her chance had gone in that field of 25 runners. David Egan’s mount is better judged on her comfortable debut victory at Yarmouth in May when beating a horse rated 99, and more recently when cruising home in Ripon's Champion Two Yrs Old Trophy.
Today’s trip of 6f on soft ground should prove ideal conditions for this talented filly, who may have most to fear from Richard & Peter Fahey’s Ruby Moon.
Recommendation: Silent Beauty (Nap) - 13/8 with Paddy Power
This is Alan's Nap of the Day selection - see how it stacks up against Charlie McCann's pick too.
3:40pm Ayr - Binhareer
Successful with 7/2 favourite Nahaarr in this valuable sprint handicap in 2020, trainer Wiliam Haggas is responsible for the horse currently heading the market for this year’s renewal in the shape of BINHAREER, an unlucky 6th in the Silver Cup last year when missing the break.
The grey son of Dark Angel is now rated 103 based on some excellent efforts this season, including an impressive win in York’s Coral Sprint Trophy. Tom Marquand’s mount possibly found the ground a little too fast when 6th of 27 as the 4/1 favourite for the Wokingham at Royal Ascot, since when the four-year-old has finished a creditable fourth in Newbury’s Group 3 Hackwood Stakes.
Current odds of 9/2 may appear short enough in a race of this nature, but I expect Binhareer to take plenty of beating, providing his draw in stall 2 does prove to be a significant disadvantage.
Recommendation: Binhareer - 9/2 with William Hill
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Free Bets in 2008.
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