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An eventful week, the most controversial being the falls of Constitution Hill and our nap The New Lion in Saturday’s Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle.
It’s a case of back to the drawing board for the Seven Barrows superstar; I for one would like to see the eight-year-old jump a fence, as the Blue Bresil gelding would need to have more respect for his obstacles, something which has been sadly missing on three of his last four starts.
I still feel that The New Lion will still prove the one to beat come next March’s Champion Hurdle.
- P/L for the week ending Sunday, 30 November: -£10.75
- P/L for the year 2025 to date: +£60.38
- P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
- P/L since 1st September 2022: +£546.37
Alan Kelly's Tips - Sunday, 7 December
Sunday afternoon sees some excellent jumps action, the main races at Huntingdon, Kelso and Cork in Ireland part of ITV Racing's nine-race coverage.
We have tips for three of the races, including a selection for the Scottish Borders National at Kelso.
2:00pm Kelso - Breeze Of Wind (Each-Way)
With the ground already described as soft at the Borders racecourse and the prospect of further rain, this extended four mile Scottish Borders National is going to prove something of a war of attrition. Four of the 11 contenders will be racing from out of the handicap, one of which is the Stuart Coltherd-trained BREEZE OF WIND (Each-Way) and jockey Sean Quinlan.
The outsider of the party at 20/1 with Paddy Power (4 places), the Arctic Cosmos gelding has shown his best form when racing over an extreme trip on testing ground, conditions the grey eight-year-old is guaranteed to get in this £50k contest.
A winner over 4m at Hexham last March on heavy going, Breeze Of Wind finished a close fourth in the same race 12 months later on ground less testing. Of the each-way selection’s five wins to date, one came on soft ground and the other four on heavy. Despite being 6lb wrong in the weights, this thorough stayer is expected to outrun his odds.
The Evan Williams stable is going well at the moment and his Neo King gives the impression he will relish this kind of trip, while last season’s Eider Chase fourth Gold Clermont is worth considering on his second start for trainer Olly Murphy. De Legislator and Diamond Dealer are improving chasers but unproven beyond three miles.
Recommendation: Breeze Of Wind (Each-Way) - 20/1 with Paddy Power (4 places)
2:50pm Cork - Energumene
Majborough’s only defeat in four starts over fences came in the Arkle at the Cheltenham Festival back in March, the J P McManus-owned five-year-old possibly an unlucky loser after making mistakes at both of the last two fences. Mark Walsh’s mount is far from straightforward however and often jumps out to his left.
While Willie Mullins’ charge clearly has an engine, last year’s Triumph Hurdle winner is a risky proposition to take this Grade 2 Hilly Way Chase at odds of around 4/6, in which case I would rather back the favourite’s stablemate ENERGUMENE, who will attempt to win this 2m 1f contest for the fourth year running.
The 11-year-old has a tremendous record following a break, and with conditions similar to those of 12 months ago when beating the talented mare Dinoblue by 10 lengths, Paul Townsend’s mount is capable of teaching his younger rival a thing or two. Found A Fifty is the other one to consider, although Gordon Elliott’s runner may be at his best over a slightly longer trip.
Recommendation: Energumene - 11/2 with bet365
3:00pm Huntingdon - Saint Sam (Nap)
While I'm a big fan of the Venetia Williams-trained Djelo, the stable has been struggling to get going so far this season, one exception being the seven-year-old’s game victory in Wetherby’s Charlie Hall Chase of five weeks ago. An impressive winner of this Grade 2 contest 12 months ago, Charlie Deutsch’s mount may be better over slightly further these days, in which case the odds-on market leader could prove vulnerable to Willie Mullins’ Irish raider SAINT SAM (Nap).
Jockey Harry Cobden has been booked to ride the Closutton contender (Freddie Gingell rides Hitman for trainer Paul Nicholls) who has a good record fresh and probably has his ideal conditions for this Peterborough Chase. I expect Cobden to dictate matters from the front on Saint Sam, who can take advantage should Djelo fail to bring his A-game to the table.
Recommendation: Saint Sam (Nap) - 7/2 with William Hill
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
You can follow Alan Kelly on Twitter for more racing insight.
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