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Alan Kelly's Tips - Friday, 13 February
Friday’s jumps action comes from the meetings at Kelso, Chepstow and Fakenham, with soft conditions expected at all three fixtures. There is also the possibility of snow showers at both Kelso and Fakenham.
2:30pm Kelso - Triple Crown Ted (Nap)
With a current losing run of 53 over jumps, the Russell/Scudamore stable have been struggling to find their form over the last few weeks. However, with four seconds so far this month, there have been signs that their next winner can not be far away. With decent chances in most of the races on this afternoon’s Kelso card, I expect the Arlary House stable to leave the Borders racecourse with at least one winner, possibly two.
Making his handicap debut off an opening mark of 110, the stable’s Triple Crown Ted makes plenty of appeal in this Challenger Two Mile Hurdle Series Qualifier. This will be just the fourth start over hurdles for the Walk In The Park gelding, whose one victory to date came over today’s course and distance back in November.
Sent off the well-backed 5/6 market leader, Derek Fox’s mount only had to be pushed out to record a comfortable success over Donald McCain’s Godfrey Bouillon with fellow rival Lance Les Des back in third place. On 5lb worse terms, I expect Triple Crown Ted to confirm the form of that race.
Fourth in a competitive novices’ hurdle at Ayr on his most recent start when attempting to make all of the running in the testing conditions, the selection has plenty of improvement still to come, unlike the majority of his 9 rivals. Chris Grant’s Chase A Fortune has been running well of late, but looks high enough in the weights at the moment, leaving old rival Lance Les Des and Heart Above as the ones most likely to cause Triple Crown Ted most problems.
Recommendation: Triple Crown Ted (Nap) at 8/1 (bet365)
2:40pm Chepstow - Juby Ball
A field of only 4 for this novices’ limited handicap chase, headed by the Olly Murphy-trained The Four Sixes, the mount of champion jockey Sean Bowen. Two from 4 over fences, it is hard to evaluate the merit of those two easy victories as they came in a match at Wetherby and a three-horse affair at Kelso just after Christmas.
While there is no doubting the eight-year-old’s form over hurdles, which included impressive wins at Bangor and Ayr towards the end of last season, a chase mark of 144 looks high enough on what the son of Westerner has achieved so far over fences, in which case I prefer the chances of Evan Williams’ Juby Ball, who receives a handy 15lb from the Murphy runner.
Two from two over hurdles, the seven-year-old would have won on his first two starts over fences as well but for falling 3 out at Ffos Las on the second occasion when going much better than eventual winner Pour Les Filles. Runner-up to Noel George’s Stencil on this course towards the end of last month, Juby Ball was far from disgraced in trying to give that classy performer 10lb. A repeat of that run should make Ben Jones’s mount hard to beat, racing off a mark of 129.
Recommendation: Juby Ball at 5/6 (PP)
3:35pm Kelso - Moon Phases
On just his second start over fences, the seven-year-old Moon Phases provided the Russell/Scudamore stable with their most recent winner, that coming courtesy of a narrow victory at Newcastle in the middle of last month. The lightly-raced seven-year-old showed plenty of determination in withstanding the sustained challenge of Warren Greatrex’ runner-up Quantock Hill with the Harry Derham-trained Jus De Siton just behind.
A promising neck second on his chasing debut on this course back in November, Derek Fox’s mount was raised only 3lb for that Newcastle victory over 2m 4f and looks sure to be suited by the extra furlong and a half of today’s race. Top weight Queensbury Boy has not really fulfilled the promise of his early form over hurdles, and following three defeats over fences, does not look particularly well treated racing off a mark of 127.
A bigger danger to Moon Phases is likely to come in the shape of Nicky Richards’ Milcree, a comfortable winner on his first run over fences at Ayr last month, the form of which was boosted when the third horse home, Jipcot, went on to win by 10 lengths at Leicester next time. The 10lb that Moon Phases receives from Sean Quinlan’s mount may just prove to be the deciding factor.
Recommendation: Moon Phases at 6/1 (PP)
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
You can follow Alan Kelly on Twitter for more racing insight.
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A successful punter, with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights down the years, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Free Bets.




