Alan Kelly’s Tips
Alan heads to Cheltenham on Saturday with his strongest fancy of the day
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A frustrating week ending Sunday 7th December with seven seconds, including that of 25/1 selection Breeze Of Wind in Kelso’s Scottish Borders National on Sunday, resulting in a small loss of -£4.47 over the seven days.
- P/L for the week ending Sunday 7th December: -£4.47
- P/L for the year 2025 to date: +£55.91
- P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
- P/L since 1st September 2022: +£541.90
Alan Kelly's Tips - Saturday, 13 December
ITV Racing's eight-race coverage on Saturday afternoon features five races from Cheltenham and three from the card at Doncaster on Town Moor.
Soft going and cloudy conditions are expected at both fixtures.
1:15pm Cheltenham - Realta Liath (Each-Way)
No stable is in better form at the moment than that of Warren Greatrex who has had 8 winners from his last 16 runners as I write this on Thursday evening. The trainer is represented by the six-year-old REALTA LIATH (Each-Way) in this 16-runner Challenger Mares’ Chase Series Qualifier, the daughter of Kingston Hill, an easy winner on her chasing debut at Fontwell last month.
Champion jockey Sean Bowen has been booked to ride the mare for the first time, and despite having to race off an 8lb higher mark, gets the vote over another couple of unexposed rivals in Theonewedreamof and She Is For Me Boys.
Recommendation: Realta Liath (Each-Way) - 7/1 with bet365 (5 places)
1:50pm Cheltenham - Martator & Es Perfecto
A slightly disappointing turnout of 11 runners for this £125k Premier Handicap but a wide-open contest all the same, my two against the field at double-figure prices being the Venetia Willaims-trained MARTATOR and ES PERFECTO from the Alan King stable.
The former stayed-on to finish second to the Skelton’s Calico in a valuable 2m 1f handicap chase at Ascot last month, and while Charlie Deutsch's mount has won over that trip in the past, I think the eight-year-old is better over today’s extra three and a half furlongs.
Es Perfecto deserves to win a race of this nature, Tom Bellamy’s mount having several creditable efforts to his name on this course, the Shirocco gelding ending last season when finishing 5th of 19 in the Jack Richards Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase at the festival behind Caldwell Potter, the 10-year-old losing second spot on the run-in.
Pulled-up behind Panic Attack in the Paddy Power Gold Cup on his reappearance when holding every chance until weakening late-on, Es Perfecto will strip fitter with that run under his belt and can outrun his current odds of 18/1.
Recommendation: Martator - 16/1 with bet365 & Es Perfecto - 18/1 with Coral
2:05pm Doncaster - Prince Zaltar
Hard to dismiss any of the seven runners for this three mile handicap chase, the tentative vote going to bottom weight PRINCE ZALTAR. This will be the first outing over fences since the eight-year-old joined the Dan Skelton stable three months ago, the mount of 3lb claimer Tristan Durrell winner of a 18-runner handicap chase at Punchestown for previous handler Philip Rothwell during the summer.
Prince Zaltar has been running well over hurdles for Skelton, most recently when finishing second to Kikijo (won again at Sandown last weekend) at Cheltenham last month and is rated 3lb lower back over fences.
Recommendation: Prince Zaltar - 7/2 with bet365
2:25pm Cheltenham - David’s Well
Yet to taste defeat in three starts over fences, Neil Mulholland’s DAVID'S WELL now runs off a mark 22lb higher than when recording the first of those successes at Leicester 12 months ago. After following up on Chepstow’s Welsh Grand National card, the six-year-old was not seen again until reappearing at Haydock last month.
In beating Harry Derham’s Escapeandevade by a length and a half, it was the least impressive of the gelding’s three victories. With jockey Harry Cobden taking over from Freddie Gordon in the saddle, David’s Well can be expected to improve with that first run for 330 days under his belt and is fancied to continue his winning run at the main expense of the Joe Tizzard pair of JPR One and Triple Trade.
Recommendation: David’s Well - 11/4 with William Hill
2:40pm Doncaster - No Bet
Rated at least 8lb higher than any of her 4 rivals, this Listed mares’ hurdle should go to Dan Skelton’s Kateira. However, at a very short price the race makes little appeal from a betting perspective.
3:00pm Cheltenham - Conman John (Nap)
Not the strongest of Grade 2 races and a good opportunity for northern challenger CONMAN JOHN (Nap) to follow-up his victory on the Old course here back in October. The second and 5th horses home in that race have come out and won since, unlike main market rival They Call Me Hugo, the form of his Ffos Las victory of last month taking a few subsequent knocks.
The Russell/Scudamore-trained Conman John has always been held in high regard by connections and it will be disappointing should Derek Fox’s mount fail to see off today’s opposition before a potential trip to the festival for the Albert Bartlett Final.
Recommendation: Conman John (Nap) - 11/8 with Parimatch
3:17pm Doncaster - Amancio
Ben Pauling’s stable continues in decent form and his Lanesborough could prove the one to beat if straight enough on his first start since running out the easy winner of a Warwick handicap back in February. There are no such fitness doubts regarding the Faye Bramley-trained AMANCIO however, the son of Sixties Icon getting the vote in the hands of 7lb claimer Benjamin Macey.
After winning a maiden hurdle at Chepstow on his first start for the stable back in April, Amancio followed up in a mile and a half handicap on the flat at Newbury the following month. Making his handicap debut over hurdles off a mark of 122 following a comfortable victory in a Go North Night Nurse Series Qualifier at Sedgefield last month, the selection could take plenty of pegging back if similar front-running tactics are employed.
Recommendation: Amancio - 6/1 with William Hill
3:35pm Cheltenham - Jubilee Alpha
Is Paul Nicholls’ classy top weight JUBILEE ALPHA capable of conceding the best part of two stone to Joe Tizzard’s hat-trick scorer Sweet Caryline in today’s Cheltenham's finale? That is the big question regarding the outcome of this extended 2m 4f mares’ handicap hurdle. The two horses met at Wincanton last month with the latter coming out on top by a length, the pair clear of the remaining five runners.
On 1lb better terms, I expect that form to be reversed, especially following the bad mistake made by Harry Cobden’s mount two out at the Somerset track on the mares’ first start for 205 days. The daughter of Flemensfirth, 8th of 23 in the Dawn Run at the Cheltenham Festival, is fancied to outclass her rivals, despite having to concede at least a stone to the field.
Recommendation: Jubilee Alpha - 5/2 with Betfred
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
You can follow Alan Kelly on Twitter for more racing insight.
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