Alan Kelly’s Tips
Alan heads to Chepstow on Saturday for his best bet of the day
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Latest Profit & Loss Figures
Not the best of weeks in the lead up to the Christmas period with a loss of -£10.89.
Impose Toi advertised his Stayers Hurdle claims with a victory in Saturday’s Long Walk Hurdle and still looks decent value at the 8/1 currently available with bet365.
Held-up right at the back in a slowly run race, Saturday’s nap Mondo Man was always going to struggle in an effort to make up the ground, but there is a decent handicap to be won with Gary & Josh Moore’s charge this season.
- P/L for the week ending Sunday, 21 December: -£10.89
- P/L for the year 2025 to date: +£45.02
- P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
- P/L since 1st September 2022: +£531.01
Alan Kelly's Tips - Saturday, 27 December
ITV Racing's coverage on Saturday afternoon features five races for Kempton Park and four from Chepstow. The main betting race of the afternoon is the Coral Welsh Grand National at 2:50pm.
1:05pm Chepstow - Passing Kate (Each-Way)
An open two mile handicap chase to begin ITV’s nine-race coverage, the vote going to the Matt Sheppard-trained PASSING KATE (Each-Way). The daughter of Passing Glance won three races last season, the most recent when eased-down close home to record a comfortable victory on this course back in February.
Following narrow defeats on heavy ground at Uttoxeter and Bangor last month, the mount of 5lb claimer Ned Fox will appreciate today’s less testing conditions and is more than capable of going close in an open contest.
Recommendation: Passing Kate (Each-Way) - 7/1 with bet365 (3 places)
1:20pm Kempton - Gaye Legacy (Each-Way)
In a wide-open mares handicap hurdle, the vote goes to the Tom Symonds-trained GAYE LEGACY (Each-Way), runner-up in this race 12 months ago off a 4lb lower mark before going one better in a similar race at Newbury the following month.
Ben Poste’s mount is sure to come on for her run at Ascot last month and looks fair value (each-way) at the 16/1 available with Paddy Power.
Recommendation: Gaye Legacy (Each-Way) - 16/1 with Paddy Power (3 places)
1:40pm Chepstow - Manlaga
The ex French-trained pair of Macktoad and MANLAGA dominate the betting for this Grade 2 juvenile hurdle, the former an impressive winner at Sandown on his first start for the Gary & Josh Moore stable earlier this month. Now with trainer Nicky Henderson, the filly Manlaga has not been seen since winning a beginners hurdle on heavy ground at Auteuil back in March. In a race which makes little appeal from a betting perspective, the Seven Barrows runner gets a tentative vote in receipt of 5lb from her main market rival.
Recommendation: Manlaga - 3/1 with bet365
1:55pm Kempton - Lump Sum
No match for Nicky Henderson’s Lulamba when asked to concede 6lb to next year’s Arkle favourite in Sandown’s Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices’ Chase earlier in the month, the form of LUMP SUM's third place and previous victory at Uttoxeter sets the standard for this Wayward lad Novices’ Chase. Sam Thomas’s charge gets the vote over Ben Pauling’s Mambonumberfive.
Recommendation: Lump Sum - 6/4 with Coral
2:10pm Chepstow - Patriotik (Each-Way)
Despite a couple of modest efforts at Cheltenham this season, I expect a much better effort from the Evan Williams-trained PATRIOTIK (Each-Way) in this Class 2 handicap hurdle run over just short of 3m. Running off the same mark of 121 as when finishing 5th of 17 in the Silver Trophy on this course last season, the six-year-old will be better suited by this longer trip, as when winning a Doncaster handicap in March before being beaten a little over a length when third in a valuable contest on Uttoxeter’s Midlands Grand National card.
Recommendation: Patriotik (Each-Way) - 11/1 with bet365 (3 places)
2:30pm Kempton - Gabriel’s Getaway
In a race featuring four potential front runners, this could be set up nicely for something coming from off what is sure to be a strong pace. Calgary Tiger, Sans Bruit, Saint Segal and Thistle Ask all enjoy bowling along at the head of affairs, the last named a big improver since joining the Dan Skelton stable from that of James Ewart three months ago.
Harry Skelton’s mount now runs off a mark 31lb higher than winning the first of three races for Skelton, the most recent coming with an all-the-way victory over fellow rival Saint Segal in Exeter’s Grade 2 Haldon Gold Cup last month. In receipt of a stone from the likely market leader, I like the chances of GABRIEL'S GETAWAY from a stable in excellent form, that of Anthony Honeyball.
Four from 11 over fences, Rex Dingle’s mount got to within three quarters of a length of winning a valuable Premier Handicap at Ascot last month and could be the one to take advantage if the pace collapses at the business end of the race, despite racing from 3lb out of the handicap.
Recommendation: Gabriel’s Getaway - 11/2 with bet365
2:50pm Chepstow - Git Maker (Each-Way) (Nap)
No one would deny Sara Bradstock’s Mr Vango victory in this Coral Welsh Grand National following the nine-year-old’s narrow defeat in Aintree’s Becher Chase earlier in the month. Despite being 3lb well-in for this early closing race, I still think Jack Tudor’s mount faces a difficult task with 11st 11lb to carry, a remark which also applies to Rebecca Curtis’ Haiti Couleurs on 11st 13lb.
At a massive price, it would be no surprise to see Venetia Williams’ Tanganyika outrun his odds. However, the vote goes to the Jamie Snowden-trained GIT MAKER (Each-Way) (Nap) and jockey Gavin Sheehan.
Second in last year’s Kim Muir behind subsequent Gold Cup winner Inothewayurthinkin before finishing an excellent 3rd of 26 in Ayr’s Scottish Grand National, the Saddler Maker gelding had a spin over hurdles at Lingfield last month to blow the cobwebs away and with just 10st 6lb to carry, make plenty of each-way appeal.
Recommendation: Git Maker (Each-Way) (Nap) - 7/1 with William Hill (5 places)
3:07pm Kempton - Prince Zaltar
Another race sure to be run at a decent pace with Paul Nicholls’ top weight Viroflay expected to take the field along. After leaving the stable of Irish trainer Philip Rothwell for that of Dan Skelton, the eight-year-old PRINCE ZALTAR made his chasing debut for the stable at Doncaster two weeks ago following three decent runs over hurdles, including a victory at the first time of asking at Newton Abbot in September.
After travelling well for most of the race on Town Moor, Prince Zaltar could never quite get to grips with the first two horses home, Docpickedme and Alcedo, but looked as if he would come on plenty for that first run over the bigger obstacles since crossing the Irish Sea, the son of Prince Gibraltar winner of a 18-runner Punchestown handicap chase during the summer.
In another open race, Harry Skelton's mount gets the vote ahead of Kap Vert and Bective Abbey.
Recommendation: Prince Zaltar - 4/1 with William Hill
3:37pm Kempton - Wandering Ego
Harry Fry’s Trustintimes is on a four-timer over hurdles following a couple of wins at Uttoxeter before outbattling subsequent Cheltenham winner Fortune De Mer at Ascot. The four-year-old will find this tougher off a revised mark of 125, while Emma Lavelle’s Indemnity is respected based on a couple of creditable efforts in defeat after winning his first three starts in handicap company.
Slight preference, however, is for Olly Murphy’s handicap debutante WANDERING EGO, the mount of jockey James Bowen. The wide margin winner of a novices’ hurdle at Stratford two months ago, Wandering Ego faced an impossible task when attempting to concede 6lb to Nicky Henderson’s Old Park Star at Kempton last month and could have been let in lightly off an opening mark of 124.
Recommendation: Wandering Ego - 7/2 with Coral
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
You can follow Alan Kelly on Twitter for more racing insight.
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