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Despite three winning naps out of six (5/2, 3/1 and 7/4) we ended the week with a loss of -£8.02, the result of some very poor picks on Wednesday and Thursday.
P/L for the week ending Sunday, 20 September: -£8.02
P/L for the year to date: +£158.53
P/L for the year 2025: +£22.38
P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
P/L since 1st September 2022: +£659.09
Alan Kelly's Tips - Saturday, 26 September
Saturday's ITV Racing coverage comprises five races from Newmarket's Cambridgeshire meeting, for which the big handicap is due to get underway at 3:40pm, and two races from Haydock Park. Newmarket's card also includes a couple of Group 1 races, the Cheveley Park Stakes and Middle Park Stakes.
1:22pm Newmarket - Next Of Kin (Each-Way)
Ralph Beckett’s Sierra Belle did us a favour when winning on Kempton’s all-weather surface earlier in the month and does not look badly treated on her handicap debut racing off a mark of 81. However, at a double figure price, slight preference is for William Haggas’s Kingman filly NEXT OF KIN (Each-Way).
Tom Marquand’s mount won at the second time of asking when beating subsequent winner Myesme (rated 84) at Ayr last month before running much better than her finishing position of 7th would suggest at Newbury 8 days ago. I think Next Of Kin is much better than her current mark of 76.
Recommendation: Next Of Kin (Each-Way) - 9/1 with Sky Bet (4 places)
1:35pm Haydock - Centigrade
Back in handicap company after pulling too hard when beating only two horses home in a Listed race at Sandown 10 days ago, I think the Ralph Beckett-trained CENTIGRADE is worth another chance to fulfil his earlier promise, which included an easy victory over the 101-rated Furthur and subsequent Ebor winner Daiquiri Bay (110) at Newbury as a juvenile.
One place in front of fellow rival Eternal Force when 6th in a Heritage Handicap at York’s Ebor meeting, Hector Crouch’s mount should take plenty of beating in today’s company off a mark of 100 if settling better than at the Esher racecourse.
Recommendation: Centigrade - 7/2 with Coral
1:55pm Newmarket - Rocket Boy (Each-Way)
A wide-open Royal Lodge Stakes, a race which poses more questions than answers. With several bookmakers offering 3 places on this Group 2 contest, the each-way vote goes to the Marco Botti-trained ROCKET BOY (Each-Way), the mount of jockey Marco Ghiani.
The son of Soldier’s Call is closely matched with the better fancied Godolphin pair of First Law and Quest For Stars, and is likely to be better suited by today’s ground rather than the heavy conditions experienced when beaten three quarters of a length by the former at Haydock earlier in the month.
Recommendation: Rocket Boy (Each-Way) - 11/1 with Betfred (3 places)
2:10pm Haydock - King Of Light
Yet to finish any better than 5th on his last six starts, the bare form fails to do justice to Stuart Williams’ handicap sprinter KING OF LIGHT, who deserves to win a race of this nature following some excellent efforts in defeat over the last couple of months or so.
Eighth of 27, beaten less than three lengths in Goodwood’s Stewards Cup when failing to obtain the clearest of runs, Daniel Tudhope’s mount was last seen running a creditable race when 5th (again meeting trouble in running) in Doncaster’s Portland (Heritage Handicap) at the St Leger meeting. The four-year-old Mehmas gelding has dropped to a mark of 94, and granted a bit more luck in running on this occasion, is fancied to get the better of main rivals Ancient State and Trilby.
Recommendation: King Of Light - 10/3 with Paddy Power
2:27pm Newmarket - Senorita Bonita
A cracking Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes consisting of five potentially top class fillies (the Ballydoyle maiden Snowing possibly in to ensure a true-run race for stablemate Sun Goddess). In a race which is sure to provide plenty of clues regarding the outcome of next year’s 1000 Guineas, preference is for the Simon & Ed Crisford-trained SENORITA BONITA.
The Starspanglebanner filly beat fellow rivals Libertango and Alwaysanangel in Newmarket’s Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes on the July course and was even more impressive when pulling well clear of her rivals in Deauville’s Prix Morny last month. Oisin Murphy’s mount has won on ground ranging from soft to good to firm and is taken to just get the better of Ballydoyle’s Sun Goddess.
Recommendation: Senorita Bonita - 15/8 with bet365
3:00pm Newmarket - Orthodox
Unlike the earlier Cheveley Park Stakes, I don't think this is a vintage Middle Park, although time may prove me to be wrong. The Ballydoyle pair of Confucius and Marco Polo are probably some way down the Coolmore pecking order, with best of the Irish quartet possibly Michael O’Callaghan’s unbeaten Kodi Bear colt, Push The Boat Out.
Clive Cox’s ORTHODOX failed to handle the soft ground in the Prix Morny last time and is better judged on his comfortable victory in Royal Ascot’s Norfolk Stakes. Rossa Ryan’s mount was having his first outing in over two months in that Deauville Group 1 contest and is worth another chance under today’s more suitable conditions.
Inner City Blues represents the powerful Godolphin stable of Charlie Appleby. The well-regarded Blue Point colt takes a step-up in class but could well prove up to the task, although at current odds of 7/4, William Buick’s mount has been well found in the market.
Recommendation: Orthodox - 11/4 with BetVictor
3:40pm Newmarket - Erzindjan (Each-Way) (Nap)
I have had this race in mind for the TJ Kent-trained ERZINDJAN (Each-Way) (Nap) for some time; the booking of jockey of the moment Billy Loughnane for the eight-year-old just confirms my opinion that connections have targeted this historic nine furlong handicap since the son of Lope De Vega’s unlucky 4th place finish in the race 12 months ago.
Off a mark only 2lb lower than that of today, Erzindjan was full of running approaching the final furlong only to find himself short of room before staying-on better than anything to be beaten just a length and a half. In a race dominated by horses drawn in single figures, the gelding’s performance can be marked up coming out of stall 23.
At the age of 8, the each-way selection is always going to prove vulnerable to a less exposed rival, in this case possibly the John & Thady Gosden-trained market leader Gavriel. The well-bred son of Frankel, a comfortable winner on his handicap debut at Ascot earlier in the month, may prove to be better than a 99-rated handicapper, but at a best price 5/1, Robert Havlin’s mount is short enough in a race of this nature. At a massive price, I wouldn’t put anyone off Jim Goldie’s lightly-weighted Altareq, who looks the ideal type for the race, despite several disappointing efforts of late.
Recommendation: Erzindjan (Each-Way) (Nap) - 12/1 with BetVictor (5 places)
This is Alan's Nap of the Day selection - see how it stacks up against Charlie McCann's pick too.
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Free Bets in 2008.
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