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Alan Kelly's Tips - Wednesday, 19 August
The first day of York’s Ebor Festival features one of the most anticipated races of the Flat season, the clash between the John & Thady Gosden-trained five-year-old Ombudsman and Ballydoyle’s leading three-year-old middle distance colt Constitution River, the two horses unbeaten on all three starts this season. A race to savour.
3:00pm York - Pierre Bonnard (Nap)
There is likely to be a shake-up in the St Leger ante-post market following the result of this significant trial for the final English classic of the season next month. Epsom Derby 1-2, Christmas Day and Maltese Cross, currently head the market for the world’s oldest classic, the former just shading favouritism at a best price 10/3 with Unibet.
I’m surprised that Ryan Moore has chosen to ride Christmas Day in preference to stablemate PIERRE BONNARD (Nap), who will be partnered by super-sub Wayne Lordan. The son of Camelot was backed into favouritism at Epsom (due to the controversial decision to make Benvenuto Cellini a non-runner) but failed to produce his best on the testing ground in finishing 7th of the 14 runners.
A neck behind Christmas Day in third place behind Benvenuto Cellini in the Irish Derby on his most recent start, Pierre Bonnard meets his stablemate of 5lb better terms today. Also in receipt of 5lb from narrow Grand Prix de Paris winner Maltese Cross, Wayne Lordan’s mount can enhance his St Leger claims (7/1 with William Hill) with a victory in this significant trial.
The dark horse of the race is John & Thady Gosden’s Superior Choice, winner of all three races this season, the latest coming in Hamilton’s Listed Glasgow Stakes last month. A big run from the son of Dubawi would come as no surprise.
Recommendation: Pierre Bonnard (Nap) - 3/1 with bet365
3:35pm York - Almaqam (w/o Ombudsman & Constitution River)
I was among the crowd on the rails at York 54 years ago to witness the only defeat of the great Brigadier Gerard in this race, known then as the Benson and Hedges Gold Cup. The memory of that year’s Derby winner Roberto trouncing Dick Hern’s champion is still fresh in the mind.
In a race which has produced its fair share of shocks over the years, this year's renewal looks to rest between the Godolphin-owned Ombudsman, impressive winner of the race 12 months ago, and Ballydoyle's Prix de Jockey Club and Coral-Eclipse hero Constitution River. From a betting perspective, I am more interested in the market without the big two.
With both camps fielding pacemakers, and the likelihood of cat and mouse tactics from Buick and Moore, I think the 5/1 on offer from William Hill about ALMAQAM without the two favourites represents decent value. Ed Walker’s charge beat Ombudsman fair and square in last year's Brigadier Gerard Stakes at Sandown in receipt of 3lb, and looked as good as ever when taking the Group 1 Tattersalls Gold Cup on his reappearance.
Only fourth behind Ombudsman in Royal Ascot’s Prince Of Wales's Stakes last time, Kieren Shoemark’s mount is better than that and more than capable of outrunning his current odds. French raider Zaydann takes a big step-up in class following a win in a Vichy Group 3 contest, while Item still has plenty to prove in this exalted company, leaving Ballydoyle number two, Hawk Mountain, as the other one to consider.
Recommendation: Almaqam (w/o Ombudsman & Constitution River) - 5/1 with William Hill
4:10pm York - Small Fry & Ride The Thunder
The winner of 5 of his 13 starts when trained in this country by Gary & Josh Moore, the five-year-old Small Fry has yet to open his account in 6 attempts for Irish handler Joseph O’Brien (two over hurdles), but based on his last two runs, the first when 6th of 20 in the Ascot Stakes followed by a staying-on second behind Ebor hopeful Hopewell Rock at Glorious Goodwood, the mount of the excellent Dylan Browne McMonagle is probably the one they all have to beat in this Sky Bet Stayers Handicap.
Denied a clear run on several occasions at the Sussex racecourse, SMALL FRY got to within three quarters of a length of the winner in that 1m 6f handicap, although I thought George Boughey’s New Bay gelding won with a bit in hand. My other selection for this 2m Heritage Handicap is the Roger Varian-trained RIDE THE THUNDER, although Ray Dawson’s mount could have been better drawn (17 of 17)
I’m convinced that there is a valuable staying handicap to be won with the Night Of Thunder gelding, who has done little wrong in three runs this season since being gelded. Beaten less than 5 lengths when 6th in Newcastle’s Northumberland Plate, the four-year-old didn’t get the best of runs when finishing a close third at Newbury on his most recent start, and providing his draw is not a major disadvantage, Ride The Thunder is fancied to go close.
Recommendations: Small Fry - 10/3 with bet365 & Ride The Thunder - 15/2 with bet365
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Free Bets in 2008.
You can follow Alan Kelly on X for more racing insight.
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