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Despite an excellent day on Wednesday, including a 6/1 winning nap, it was a week of hard lines and bad luck, starting with the fall of our 13/8 nap Grain Trade at Market Rasen on Tuesday, the horse stumbling after jumping the last with the race won.
The most frustrating, however, was the performance of 17/2 chance All In You in Saturday's Scottish Champion Hurdle, James Bowen's mount still cruising behind leader Tutti Quanti, only to be almost brought down by the favourite at the second last. A bit of good fortune in the week ahead would be very welcome.
- P/L for the week ending Sunday, 19 April: -£8.57
- P/L for the year 2026 to date: +£48.78
- P/L for the year 2025: +£22.38
- P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
- P/L since 1st September 2022: +£549.44
Alan Kelly's Tips - Saturday, 25 April
ITV Racing will be covering four races from Sandown Park on the final day of the 2025/26 jumps season on Saturday, the feature handicap being the Bet365 Gold Cup at 3:30pm.
Along with the action from the Esher racecourse, the afternoon coverage will also include races from Haydock Park and Leicester.
1:45pm Sandown - Kadastral
Despite having been beaten a total of just over 40 lengths on his last two starts, I expect to see the Dan Skelton-trained KADASTRAL go close in this valuable Bet365 Novices’ Championship Final Handicap Hurdle, now that the six-year-old encounters some decent ground for the first time since giving 10lb and a beating to the 146-rated hurdler Talk The Talk in a valuable Newbury Bumper 13 months ago.
Runner-up twice to Supreme Novices’ Hurdle second Sober Glory, Harry Skelton’s mount failed to handle the heavy ground at Newbury on the second occasion, again the case when not at his best on soft ground at Uttoxeter last month. The selection makes his handicap debut off an opening mark of 125, a rating which may underestimate the potential of a horse we have yet to see the best of.
With a field of 19 for this £100k contest, Kadastral may need a little luck in running, the main dangers likely to come in the shape of Paul Nicholls’ Minella Yoga and the Chris Gordon pair of Cosmic Connection and Knocktail Bleu.
Recommendation: Kadastral - 4/1 with bet365
2:05pm Leicester - Strike Red (Each-Way)
A wide-open sprint handicap, the vote going to the Richard & Peter Fahey-trained STRIKE RED (Each-Way), the mount of apprentice Warren Fentiman. Rated 8lb higher when finishing second of 27 in last year’s Coral Stewards’ Cup (Heritage Handicap), the Dark Angel gelding ran well to finish a close third on his reappearance at Newcastle 12 days ago.
Today’s conditions should prove ideal for the eight-year-old, who runs off his lowest mark since his three-year-old days. The 3lb claim of his talented rider is another plus.
Recommendation: Strike Red (Each-Way) - 9/1 with bet365 (4 places)
2:20pm Sandown - Mahons Glory (Each-Way)
Ultima Chase fourth Blow Your Wad and Dan Skelton’s Doyen Quest, who filled the same position behind the ill-fated Gold Dancer in the Grade 1 Mildmay Novices’ Chase at Aintree, head the betting for this below-par Grade 2 chase, the pair one of two points ahead of the Paul Nicholls-trained Matterhorn.
I think this extended 2m 6f contest may be more open than the betting would suggest however, in which case it could be worth taking a chance on the oldest of the 7 runners, MAHONS GLORY (Each-Way) from the Dylan Cunha stable. Two of the gelding’s three wins to date have come over today’s trip, the third over 2m 4f at Huntingdon last month.
Lee Edwards’ mount ran a cracker to finish 6th of 27 in the Topham last time, the son of Fame And Glory only weakening on the long run-in at the Merseyside racecourse. At odds of around 20/1, and with several firms going 3 places, it would be no surprise to see Mahons Glory go close.
Recommendation: Mahons Glory (Each-Way) - 20/1 with bet365 (3 places)
2:35pm Haydock - Khafiz
The Ed Bethell stable has made a cracking start to the season with 6 winners from their last 21runners as I write. On his first start for the stable since leaving that of Roger Varian last month, the unexposed KHAFIZ gets the vote in this tricky 7f handicap.
The son of New Bay won minor contests at Kempton and Doncaster on his first two starts at three, prior to finishing a staying-on seventh in a Deauville Group 3 contest in the summer. Callum Rodriguez’ mount ended the season with a close third behind subsequent Lincoln runner-up Rogue Diplomat at Doncaster in October.
The main danger to Khafiz is probably the Charlie Fellowes-trained Cosi Bello, the Bated Breath gelding last seen finishing fourth of 17 in a valuable handicap at Ascot last summer. If fit enough on his first start for 9 months, Paddy Bradley’s mount looks sure to go well.
Recommendation: Khafiz - 9/2 with Betfred
2:55pm Sandown - Jonbon (Nap)
This Celebration Chase looks sure to be run at a fierce pace with front runners Thistle Ask and Solness expected to take the field along. This could well play into the hands of 2023/24 winner JONBON (Nap), who was no match for Champion Chase winner Il Etait Temps in his hat-trick bid of 12 months ago.
Nico De Boinville’s mount can prove a popular winner of this Grade 1 contest, with Joe Tizzard’s JPR One the alternative in the market without the Seven Barrows runner.
Recommendation: Jonbon (Nap) - 13/8 with William Hill
3:30pm Sandown - Certainly Red (Each-Way)
A poor renewal of this famous handicap chase, formerly known as the Whitbread Gold Cup. The disappointing turnout for such a valuable prize can be, in some respects, put down to its close proximity to the three Nationals at Fairyhouse, Aintree and Ayr.
In an open race, I have backed CERTAINLY RED (Each-Way) at the 33/1 currently available with Paddy Power (4 places). Fourth in a much classier renewal of the race in 2024, Lydia Richard's charge missed all of last year prior to returning to action on this course last month.
Carrying top weight, and at odds of 50/1, the veteran finished an excellent third, despite making a bad mistake 2 out when holding every chance. Mark Goldstein's mount can be expected to improve significantly with that first run for 15 months under his belt and gets the each-way vote.
In a race where few of the 14 contenders can be completely ruled out, Midland's Grand National runner-up Rock My Way is capable of making the frame, while Havaila and Montregard look best of those towards the bottom of the weights.
Recommendation: Certainly Red (Each-Way) - 33/1 with Paddy Power (4 places)
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
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