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Alan Kelly's Tips - Wednesday, 11 February
With Wednesday’s jumps card at Wetherby in some doubt, we head to the meetings at Hereford and Kempton Park for today’s selections.The ground at Hereford is currently described as heavy, soft in places.
2:30pm Hereford - Hardy Buck (Nap)
This staying novices’ handicap chase shouldn’t take a lot of winning, the field of 6 headed by the consistent Seasmoke from the Billy Aprahamian stable. Gavin Sheehan’s mount sets the modest standard based on his November victory at Market Rasen. However, I think the eight-year-old will do well to give 20lb to Max Comley’s bottom weight Hardy Buck.
An easy winner over hurdles on his first start for the stable at Exeter in December, the ex Alexander Gibbons-trained Mount Nelson gelding is rated 7lb lower over fences and goes into today’s race on the back of a decent effort in a chase at Huntingdon three weeks ago when taking the field along until collared by winner Call Me Arthur approaching the final fence.
A repeat of that effort, together with the 3lb claim of jockey Freddie Mitchell, should make the selection hard to beat in such a modest contest.
Recommendation: Hardy Buck (Nap) at 5/2
4:33pm Hereford - Kel Du Large
With champion jockey Sean Bowen set to ride a couple of horses for Olly Murphy at Wetherby this afternoon, Robbie Dunne has been booked to partner the stable’s King Jon Oliver in Hereford’s finale, although plans could change if Wetherby fails to pass its 8.30am inspection on Tuesday morning.
Trained in Ireland by Mrs Lorna Fowler until joining Murphy at the beginning of last month, the Karaktar gelding produced the best of his three outings over hurdles when runner-up in a Tipperary maiden contest on his final start for Fowler in October.
Making his debut for Murphy in a maiden hurdle at Fakenham last month, the six-year-old looked to face a stiff task against the Willie Mullins-trained Clay Pigeons, a wide-margin winner of a Catterick Bumper in December. Setting out to make all of the running, King John Oliver never really looked in any danger, the gelding coming home a comfortable seven and a half length winner from the disappointing favourite.
It could well be that King John Oliver turns out to be much better than his opening handicap mark of 118, but is reluctantly passed over in favour of the Jane Williams-trained Kel Du Large. The No Risk At All gelding looked a smart prospect after winning on his first three starts under rules, Bumpers at Exeter and Cheltenham, followed by a victory over hurdles on this course two years ago, after which the horse wasn’t seen for another 20 months.
Far from disgraced when fifth in a competitive handicap at Cheltenham's December meeting, the mount of Ciaran Gethings didn’t seem at home when disappointing at Windsor on his most recent start last month and deserves another chance in this Class 4 contest off a mark of 112. A winner on both soft and heavy ground, the selection should not be inconvenienced by today’s testing conditions. Kayley Woollacott’s Lucky Bere is the other one to consider.
Recommendation: Kel Du Large at 4/1
7:10pm Kempton - Carbine Harvester (EW)
Jane Chapple-Hyam’s El Bodon heads the weights for this London Sprint Series Qualifier, the five-year-old last seen winning a competitive qualifier over today’s course and distance just before Christmas. Raised 7lb to a mark of 98, Rossa Ryan’s mount, two from two on an artificial surface, may well prove the one to beat once again.
The two horses at the foot of the handicap, Tiger Crusade and Intervention, both 9-year-olds, are always going to be vulnerable against less exposed rivals, in this case a couple of the four-year-old’s competing for this Class 2 contest, the William Haggas-trained Carbine Harvester and Kullazain from the James Tate stable.
The latter justified favouritism with a victory on his third start on the all-weather when beating the in-form Accruel at Wolverhampton towards the end of last year. Hector Crouch’s mount should go well again off a 4lb higher mark, although preference is for Carbine Harvester, the mount of jockey Cieren Fallon.
The son of Hello Youmzain is 4 from 11 on the all-weather, and while only one of those wins came on this course, the gelding’s last two visits to Kempton resulted in defeats of less than one length. Not at his best when last of five at Newcastle on his most recent start when partnered by an inexperienced 7lb claimer, Carbine Harvester will appreciate
Recommendation: Carbine Harvester (EW) - 11/1 with PP
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
You can follow Alan Kelly on Twitter for more racing insight.
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