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An excellent week ending Saturday 14th February with five winning days out of six, along with successful naps at 8/1, 3/1, and 4/6. The three losing naps all pulled-up for one reason or another, the most disappointing being that of Myretown in Haydock’s Grand National Trial on Saturday.
The Russell/Scudamore-trained gelding weakened so quickly when headed that connections must be scratching their heads regarding last year’s impressive Ultima winner.
To rub salt into the wound, Grand Geste, our nap when pulled-up in last month’s Great Yorkshire Chase at Doncaster, showed his true form at the Merseyside racecourse with a comfortable victory.
- P/L for the week ending Sunday, 15 February: +£19.92
- P/L for the year 2026 to date: +£40.13
- P/L for the year 2025: +£22.38
- P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
- P/L since 1st September 2022: +£540.79
Alan Kelly's Tips - Saturday, 21 February
ITV Racing will be covering eight races live on Saturday afternoon, five from Kempton Park, one from Newcastle and two from Lingfield Park’s all-weather card.
The two main betting races of the day are Kempton’s Ladbrokes Trophy Handicap Chase at 3:35pm and Newcastle’s marathon Eider Chase, due to get underway at 2:43pm at the north-east racecourse.
1:10pm Kempton - Hold The Serve
Alan King’s Favour And Fortune has done little wrong over hurdles, the eight-year-old last seen finishing third of 20 in a Premier Handicap at Aintree on Grand National Day. Racing off a career-high mark of 142 and following a break of over 10 months, Tom Bellamy’s mount is up against it on his first outing of the season.
On just his fourth start over hurdles and following a couple of comfortable victories at Wincanton and Market Rasen after wind surgery towards the end of last year, Olly Murphy’s HOLD THE SERVE gets the vote on his handicap debut and off what may prove to be a reasonable opening mark of 123.
Recommendation: Hold The Serve - 3/1 with Coral
1:25pm Lingfield - Leovanni
Clive Cox’s Diligent Harry has a good record on the all-weather with 9 wins from 17 starts, the most recent when dead-heating with Harry Charlton’s Completely Random over today’s course and distance on the final day of last month. Rossa Ryan’s mount has to concede between 3lb and 8lb to his 5 rivals, slight preference being for Karl Burke’s all-weather debutante LEOVANNI.
The daughter of Kodi Bear, winner of last year’s Queen Mary at the royal meeting, looks the type to be suited by an artificial surface (only disappointing effort on turf came on soft ground) and possesses more scope than any of her rivals.
Recommendation: Leovanni - 7/2 with BetVictor
1:45pm Kempton - One Horse Town
This Grade 2 Adonis Juvenile Hurdle looks to be a straight match between Harry Derham’s ONE HORSE TOWN and Precious Man from the Dan Skelton stable, only 1lb separating the pair based on official ratings. The two horses met at Cheltenham back in November when, on 5lb better terms, One Horse Town came out on top by just under four lengths.
Harry Skelton’s mount looked a big danger going to the last at Prestbury Park only to become unbalanced with an awkward jump before weakening close home. While there is unlikely to be much between the two horses once again, at current prices slight preference is for Paul O’Brien’s mount, a 10 length winner on the course back in October.
Recommendation: One Horse Town - 5/2 with Betfred
2:00pm Lingfield - Nebras
Last seen winning Newmarket’s bet365 Cambridgeshire under top weight back in September, Karl Burke’s Boiling Point will be having just his second outing on the all-weather, the first when finishing 5th in a handicap at Newcastle’s Northumberland Plate meeting last summer.
The John & Thady Gosden stable are represented by both Chancellor and Nebras in this 5-runner Winter Derby, the former a cosy winner of Southwell’s Listed Tandridge Stakes over two furlongs shorter two weeks ago.
In what is likely to be a tactical affair, I think NEBRAS and jockey Ryan Moore could possibly dictate matters from the front, as was the case when the Dubawi gelding won on his final two starts of 2025 at Newcastle and over today’s course and distance.
Recommendation: Nebras - 7/2 with Paddy Power
2:25pm Kempton - Jax Junior
A disappointing turnout of only 4 for this valuable Grade 2 Pendil Novices’ Chase, but a good opportunity for Lucy Wadham’s JAX JUNIOR to follow up his victory in a Sandown handicap on the final day of 2025. The mount of Tom Cannon’s biggest asset is his jumping, as when winning a beginners’ chase on this course in November.
Rated 6lb higher than Paul Nicholls’ Go West, Jax Junior can make it 3 from 5 over fences in what is a poor renewal of a race won in the past by the likes of Remittence Man, Frodon, Cyrname and Pic D’Orhy.
Recommendation: Jax Junior - 4/6 with bet365
2:43pm Newcastle - Anglers Crag (Nap)
Advised earlier in the week in the ante-post market, Brian Ellison’s 2024 winner ANGLERS CRAG (Nap), now in the care of trainer Nicky Richards, is fancied to go close once again following the 11-year-old’s impressive debut victory for the stable at Carlisle back in November.
Of those at a double-figure price, Mel Rowley’s 2024 Welsh Grand National winner Val Dancer makes most appeal.
Recommendation: Anglers Crag (Nap) - 4/1 with William Hill (advised ante-post at 8/1 with Coral)
3:00pm Kempton - Desertmore News (Each-Way)
Unlike the earlier Pendil Novices’ Chase, this Grade 2 Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle is an absolute cracker; the fact that bookmakers are going 9/2 the field puts in perspective the open nature of the two mile contest. With several firms offering 4 places, the each-way vote in a wide open race goes to DESERTMORE NEWS (Each-Way), one of two runners for trainer Tom Ellis.
An impressive winner on his hurdling debut at Southwell earlier in the month, the Elusive Pimpernel gelding may not have beaten very much but could not have done it any easier and would almost certainly be a lot shorter in the betting if housed in a more fashionable yard.
Recommendation: Desertmore News (Each-Way) - 12/1 with Betfred (4 places)
3:35pm Kempton - Boombawn & Hoe Joly Smoke
A wide open renewal of this £150k Premier Handicap, my two against the field being the Dan Skelton representatives, top weight Boombawn and Hoe Joly Smoke. Not surprisingly with a mark of 151 and 12st to carry, the former will be partnered by 7lb claimer Harry Aktins, with stable jockey Harry Skelton aboard the eight-year-old Hoe Joly Smoke.
This will be the first try at three miles for Boombawn, who is well worth a try over this longer trip, the nine-year-old beaten just a length when conceding 5lb to Paul Nicholls’ Rubaud in the Pendil on this card 12 months ago. No match for the likes of Impaire Et Passe, Gaelic Warrior and Djelo after that run, Boombawn can outrun his double-figure odds.
Pulled-up when failing to stay the extended 3m 4f trip in last season’s bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown, Hoe Joly Smoke has run well on all three starts this season, in particular when third of 18 in a valuable staying chase at Cheltenham’s October meeting. Three miles on a less-testing track is probably ideal conditions for the Black Sam Bellamy gelding, who looks sure to go well.
Recommendations: Boombawn - 20/1 with William Hill & Hoe Joly Smoke - 7/1 with Coral
2:43pm Newcastle (Eider Chase, Saturday) - Anglers Crag
The passing of 1969 Grand National winning jockey Eddie Harty last week reminded me of the Eider Chase of that year. Still in short trousers, after watching the victory of the Toby Balding-trained Highland Wedding (with Bob Champion in the saddle) in Newcastle's extreme stamina test, I was convinced I had just seen the next winner of the world's most famous steeplechase on that February afternoon.
After telling everyone who would listen, and even those who wouldn’t, it remains to say that I was the most popular boy in school the following Monday after the 12-year-old had romped home by 12 lengths on ground officially described as firm (I know, hard to believe now). Anyway, fast forward a minor 57 years later and the important matter of this year’s renewal at the north-east racecourse on Saturday.
While it is highly unlikely that this year’s Virgin Bet-sponsored extended 4m 1f marathon will have any bearing on the outcome of the great race in less than two months time, I am keen on a repeat victory for 2024 winner ANGLERS CRAG, now in the care of Nicky Richards after leaving trainer Brian Ellison last November.
After totally losing his form on his last six starts for Ellison, it was thought a change of scenery may rejuvenate the 11-year-old, who made his debut for Richards in an extended 3m handicap at Carlisle later that month. With jockey Danny McMenamin setting out to make the running, his mount never looked in any danger of defeat, eventually cruising home by 9 lengths from his 7 rivals.
Straight after the race, the Eider Chase popped into my mind, thoughts which were echoed by Richards in a post-race interview. Not seen since that win of almost three months ago, connections are clearly keen on retaining the gelding’s current handicap mark of 130, only 4lb higher than when previously successful.
Saturday’s forecast heavy ground will hold no fears for the son of Multiplex, who is fancied to give his trainer a second victory in the race following that of Baywing in 2018.
Recommendation: Anglers Crag - 8/1 with Coral
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
You can follow Alan Kelly on Twitter for more racing insight.
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