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Despite three winning naps out of six (5/2, 3/1 and 7/4) we ended the week with a loss of -£8.02, the result of some very poor picks on Wednesday and Thursday.
P/L for the week ending Sunday, 20 September: -£8.02
P/L for the year to date: +£158.53
P/L for the year 2025: +£22.38
P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
P/L since 1st September 2022: +£659.09
Alan Kelly's Tips - Friday, 25 September
The feature races on the second day of Newmarket's Cambridgeshire meeting are a couple of Group 2 events, the Betway Rockfel Stakes at 2:25pm and the Betway Joel Stakes at 3:00pm.
There is also a cracking Jumps card at Worcester, featuring the CopyBet Arc Summer Chase Series Final at 2:05pm and the CopyBet Fixed Brush Hurdle Series Final at 2:40pm. Good ground is forecast for both meetings.
1:15pm Newmarket - Alobayyah & Blingy’s Sister
Godolphin’s Gilded The Lily steps up into Listed company for the first time following a couple of victories in minor races at Newmarket at Kempton. The daughter of Blue Point wasn’t particularly impressive in landing the odds on both occasions and has plenty to prove in today’s higher class.
Charlie Johnston’s Arisaig finished a creditable third in this race 12 months ago, but is now on a losing run of 17 and is easily passed over once again despite possessing the ability to go close. James Fanshawe’s stable is in good form at the moment and his Estissa is capable of a big run. However, my two against the field are the William Haggas-trained ALOBAYYAH and Hugo Palmer’s BLINGY'S SISTER.
The former landed a bit of a gamble when winning the Kensington Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot off a mark of 90, and may have needed the run when finishing 7th in the Listed Dick Hern Stakes at Haydock last month when failing to get the clearest of runs. On just her 7th career start, Tom Marquand’s mount has more improvement to come.
At a much bigger price, I think the Hugo Palmer-trained Blingy’s Sister is capable of outrunning her odds. Since winning on her debut at Chepstow last July, the Starspangledbanner filly has put up several decent efforts in defeat, including when finishing 4th of 30 in the Sandringham at the royal meeting. Clifford Lee’s mount has been running better than the bare form of her last few runs would suggest and looks good value at odds of around 12/1.
Recommendations: Alobayyah - 9/2 with William Hill & Blingy’s Sister - 12/1 with Coral
1:50pm Newmarket - Inis Mor
Ed Bethell’s Coedana, Andrew Balding’s Prizeland and the Roger Varian-trained Summerson have all been running well enough to have an impact on the outcome of this Group 3 Princess Royal Stakes, while John & Thady Gosden’s Without Prejudice, despite today’s significant step-up in class, is very much the dark horse of the race.
The four horses mentioned may have to settle for minor honours however, as if running up to her very best, this mile and a half race for fillies and mares looks at the mercy of the David Menuisier-trained INIS MOR. Ending her juvenile campaign with a rating of 101, the daughter of Galiway began her three-year-old career with a respectable 12th in the Betfred 1000 Guineas before stepping up to a mile and a quarter for Goodwood’s Listed Height Of Fashion Stakes.
In beating subsequent Ribblesdale winner Earth Shot by a head, Inis Mor sets a clear standard for today’s race. Third in the French Oaks on her next start, Ryan Moore’s mount went one better behind Johanna Walsh in the Irish equivalent the following month before failing to make an impact behind King George winner Kalpana in the Yorkshire Oaks at the Ebor meeting.
While the Menuisier stable could be in better form, the selection is expected to provide the Sussex trained with a welcome Group success.
Recommendation: Inis Mor - 5/2 with William Hill
2:05pm Worcester - Loki’s Mischief
Unbeaten on both of her starts over fences, one coming in a series qualifier here at the beginning of July, the Toby Bulgin-trained Merely A Detail heads the betting for this Arc Summer Chase Series Final along with Dan Skelton’s Palamon, who has been struggling of late but is now back down to a mark only 4lb higher than when recording his only victory over fences to date at Bangor back in March.
One horse who looks to have been prepared with this final in mind is the Chester Williams-trained LOKI'S MISCHIEF, the winner of his second and third outings over fences, both at Ffos Las in May, the first coming in a qualifier over a trip of 2m 5f plus.
Now 10lb higher than when recording the first of those successes, the mount of Lorcan Williams still looks reasonably treated off a mark of 110 and is fancied to go close in this valuable handicap chase.
Recommendation: Loki’s Mischief - 6/1 with Paddy Power
2:25pm Newmarket - Spirited Gesture (Nap)
With an opening rating of 88 following victories in minor contests at Newmarket and Newcastle last month, the John & Thady Gosden-trained SPIRITED GESTURE (Nap) looks to have plenty to do in an effort to keep her unbeaten record in this Group 2 Rockfel Stakes against the likes of Karl Burke’s 101-rated Light Of Dawn, last seen winning the Group 3 Prestige Fillies’ Stakes at Glorious Goodwood.
There are few better bred juvenile fillies than the daughter of Kingman however, who is no bigger than 20/1 for next year’s 1000 Guineas at Newmarket. After making a winning debut with a comfortable victory on the July course, Colin Keane’s mount followed that up with another easy success on Newcastle’s Tapeta surface 19 days later.
The form of that race was boosted when the runner-up, Angel In My Heart, went on to finish a creditable third in Saturday’s Group 3 Firth Of Clyde Stakes at Ayr, taking the daughter of Harry Angel’s rating up from 77 to 93. While Spirited Gesture faces some stiff opposition in the shape of Light Of Dawn and Sweet Solera winner Sugar Yes Please, I expect the Juddmonte-owned filly to enhance her classic aspirations with another victory against today’s sterner opposition.
Recommendation: Spirited Gesture (Nap) - 2/1 with William Hill
This is Alan's Nap of the Day selection - see how it stacks up against Charlie McCann's pick too.
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Free Bets in 2008.
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