Alan Kelly’s Tips
Alan heads to Ascot on Saturday for his best bet of the day
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A break-even week with a profit of just +£0.10. Another five second over the six days, making it a frustrating 12 in the last fortnight, including our 28/1 tip Nine Nine Nine, backed into 11/2 at Leicester on Wednesday.
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Alan Kelly's Tips - Saturday, 20 December
On the final Saturday for horse racing before the Christmas festivities, the ITV Racing cameras will cover races from the meetings at Ascot and Haydock Park, the feature race at the Berkshire racecourse coming at 2:25pm with the Grade 1 Howden Long Walk Hurdle.
1:50pm Ascot - The Famous Five
Fifth in last month’s Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham, Ben Pauling’s Bad is probably in the grip of the handicapper at the moment racing off a mark of 144. On the other hand, I think there is plenty of scope for the Venetia Williams-trained bottom weight THE FAMOUS FIVE to improve upon his current rating of 123.
The Camelot gelding’s only win in five starts over fences came courtesy of a narrow victory at Newbury’s Christmas meeting last year, despite a far from fluent round of jumping by the seven-year-old. Runner-up on his two most recent starts earlier in the year, Charlie Deutsch’s mount makes plenty of appeal if putting in a half-decent round of jumping.
Recommendation: The Famous Five - 9/2 with bet365
2:05pm Haydock - Fenland Tiger (Each-Way)
When the ground is testing at the Merseyside racecourse it is often a case of last man standing, especially when racing over this extended 3m 1f trip. Despite having to race from 7lb out of the handicap (negated by the 7lb claim of rider Harry Atkins), it could be worth siding with Sam England’s FENLAND TIGER (Each-Way) at a big price.
From a stable in fair form, the nine-year-old has a good record on ground described as soft/heavy with form figures reading 3-11-1-1-1-1-1-7-2. Sent off the 4/1 market leader when 7th in last season’s Eider Chase at Newcastle, the trip of over 4m 1f almost certainly too severe at test for the Schiaparelli gelding.
Last year’s second Jacks Parrot should go well racing off the same mark of 119, but at a much bigger price Fenland Tiger gets the each-way vote.
Recommendation: Fenland Tiger (Each-Way) - 20/1 with Paddy Power (4 places)
2:25pm Ascot - Impose Toi
An excellent renewal of this Grade 1 Howden Long Walk Hurdle and a potentially significant trial for the Stayers’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival next March. Having backed Nicky Henderson’s IMPOSE TOI at 20/1 for that championship contest, I will be hoping Nico de Boinville’s mount, one of two runners for leading owner J P McManus along with main market rival Honesty Policy, can enhance his claims as the leading home hope for that race in just under three months time.
Unbeaten on both starts since being stepped-up to three miles this season, the most recent when beating fellow rival Strong Leader with more in hand than the winning distance of half a length would suggest, although the runner-up opposes on 6lb better terms today. Olly Murphy’s charge finished last of 10, beaten 75 lengths in this race 12 months ago, a bigger danger to Impose Toi possibly that of Irish raider Honesty Policy.
A narrow winner over Regent’s Stroll in a 2m 4f Grade 1 at Aintree possibly leaves Gordon Elliott’s charge with a bit to find, although Mark Walsh’s mount is clearly an exciting prospect over this kind of trip.
Recommendation: Impose Toi - 10/3 with Coral
2:40pm Haydock - Jackie Hobbs
Not a race which makes much appeal from a betting perspective featuring a field of nine unexposed contenders for this Listed mares’ novices’ hurdle. After winning a heavy-ground point-to-point in Ireland last March, the only defeat in four starts suffered by the Harry Derham-trained JACKIE HOBBS came when finishing 9th of 20 in a Grade 2 Bumper at Aintree’s Grand National meeting.
The daughter of Jack Hobbs opened her account over hurdles with a comfortable victory at Newbury last month (2nd, 3rd and 11th horses home have all won since) and looks a smart prospect for an even smarter trainer.
Recommendation: Jackie Hobbs - 5/2 with Betfred
3:00pm Ascot - Victtorino & Blow Your Wad
Ben Pauling’s Pic Roc ran a cracker to finish 5th in last month’s Coral Gold Cup, the seven-year-old staying on nicely at the finish after having plenty to do following a slow start. However, my two against the field for this £100k Silver Cup (Premier Handicap) are Venetia Williams’ course specialist VICTTORINO and BLOW YOUR WAD from the Tom Lacey stable.
The former runs off a mark 3lb higher than when winning this race 12 months ago, the gelding now 4 from 5 on a course the son of It’s Gino clearly reserves his best for. Sixteenth in Newbury’s Coral Gold Cup on his reappearance when the stable were struggling to get going, Charlie Deutsch's mount will appreciate the return to his favourite track and with that first run of the season under his belt.
Heavily supported when finishing a close third in the Sodexo Gold Cup on this course last month, I expect Tom Lacey’s Blow Your Wad to reverse the form of that race with winner Henry’s Friend, jockey Sam Twiston-Davies taking over in the saddle from Stan Sheppard (rides at Hereford) for the first time. Winner of the Grade 2 Pendil Novices’ Chase at Kempton Park last year, Blow Your Wad has a valuable handicap within him this season.
Recommendation: Victtorino - 11/2 with bet365 & Blow Your Wad - 9/2 with bet365
3:35pm Ascot - Mondo Man (Nap)
The final major handicap hurdle before the Christmas break, with prize money of £125k up for grabs, almost £72k of which will go to the winner of this Premier Handicap run over a distance just short of two miles. As you would expect, the race has attracted a strong field of 13 headed by Greatwood Hurdle winner Alexei.
From a handicapping point of view, I will be surprised if JoeTizzard’s charge is capable of conceding the best part of two stones to a horse, MONDO MAN (Nap), who was beaten only four lengths in last year’s French Derby (Prix du Jockey Club). Now with the Gary & Josh Moore stable, the four-year-old makes his handicap debut on his 5th start over hurdles off what may turn out to be a seriously lenient mark of 123.
Highly tried over the smaller obstacles, Caoilin Quinn’s mount possibly ran into a very good novice in Harry Derham’s Mossy Fen Road when just outstayed by that horse at Lingfield last month after appearing to be going best of the pair 2 out. Off joint bottom weight of just 10st 4lb, I expect Mondo Man to take this valuable handicap, with Joyeuse, who returns to hurdles following a couple of unsuccessful attempts over fences, best of those at a double-figure price.
Recommendation: Mondo Man (Nap) - 11/4 with William Hill
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
You can follow Alan Kelly on Twitter for more racing insight.
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