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An excellent week with five winning days out of six (a minor loss of -£0.25 on Thursday) resulting in healthy profit of +£18.32.
- P/L for the week ending Sunday, 26 April: +£18.32
- P/L for the year 2026 to date: +£67.10
- P/L for the year 2025: +£22.38
- P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
- P/L since 1st September 2022: +£567.76
Alan Kelly's Tips - Friday, 1 May
An excellent Friday afternoon of horse racing action featuring three quality Flat cards, headed by the first day on Newmarket’s Guineas meeting, while over in Ireland the Punchestown Festival has reached its fourth day.
2:35pm Ascot - Sweet William (Nap)
The winner of 6 of his 19 starts on turf, the John & Thady Gosden-trained SWEET WILLIAM (Nap) will be more at home dropping down to Group 3 level for this Sagaro Stakes (A Gold Cup Trial) as opposed to taking on the likes of stablemate Trawlerman and St Leger winner Scandinavia, as was the case in 2025.
A winner twice in Group 2 company, the latest courtesy of a comfortable victory in last year’s Doncaster Cup, Robert Havlin’s mount has just been found wanting at the very highest level but ultra-consistent in races of this nature. With the Gosden stable in sparkling form at the moment, Sweet William can open his account for the season before tackling some of the main staying races in the months ahead.
George Scott’s Caballo De Mar progressed from handicaps to winning Longchamp’s Group 1 Prix Du Cadran on very soft ground but has to concede weight to all of his rivals, while best of the rest is Tom Clover’s Tabletalk.
Recommendation: Sweet William (Nap) - 2/1 with Ladbrokes
3:30pm Newmarket - French Master & Santorini Star
George Scott’s Bay City Roller is the highest rated of the 7 runners in this Group 2 Jockey Club Stakes. Billy Loughnane’s mount has to concede weight to all of his rivals however, and is probably better with a bit of cut in the ground. Andrew Balding’s Eydon and Lion’s Pride could be fancied on their best form, but I am going to back both FRENCH MASTER and SANTORINI STAR, two horses I think we have yet to see the best of.
The former gave 3lb and a beating to subsequent Group 1 winner Caballo De Mar in the Copper House Stakes at Royal Ascot last year before probably failing to get the trip when fifth following a slow start in the 2m Goodwood Cup. The son of Frankel’s run in the Ebor after that under top weight can be ignored as the five-year-old clearly didn’t give his running on the Knavesmire.
Santorini Star, after winning handicaps at York and Doncaster, ended the season with a creditable second place in Longchamp’s Group 1 Prix De Royallieu. The daughter of Golden Horn may be better over another furlong or two but I expect Tom Marquand to try and dictate matters from the front, tactics which often pay off on Newmarket’s Rowley course. Both stables continue in excellent form.
Recommendations: French Master - 7/1 with bet365 & Santorini Star - 13/2 with Betfred
3:45pm Ascot - Jonquil
This Listed Paradise Stakes is a trial for next month’s Queen Anne Stakes at the royal meeting. If there is to be a serious contender among today’s 9 runners for that Group 1 contest on the opening day, I think it is likely to be Juddmonte’s JONQUIL from the Andrew Balding stable.
Despite winning Goodwood’s Celebration Mile in August, the Lope De Vega colt failed to live up to the promise of his first two starts of 2025 when beating fellow rival Rashabar comfortably in Newbury’s Greenham Stakes before failing by a head to get the better of Ballydoyle’s Henri Matisse in the French 2000 Guineas.
Colin Keene’s mount may be at his best caught fresh and looks the type to make his mark in some of the top mile races in the months ahead. The Owen Burrows’ stable has made a good start to the season and his progressive Blue Point colt Remmooz is the other one to consider.
Recommendation: Jonquil - 4/1 with Ladbrokes
4:15pm Punchestown - Hunters Yarn (Each-Way)
A competitive Champion Hunters Chase, the field of 15 headed by the JP McManus-owned Its On The Line, winner of the race in 2024 and 2025. Derek O’Connor’s mount ran well below par in the Aintree Foxhunters last time however and is worth taking on at odds of around 9/4.
Lets Go Champ, runner-up behind easy winner Barton Snow at Aintree, has to be respected along with Martin Brassil’s Panda Boy and the Sam Curling pair of Wonderwall and Wrappedupinmay. However, the ex Willie Mullins-trained HUNTERS YARN (Each-Way) hasn’t enjoyed the best of luck in three starts for Paddy Doyle, but is a classy chaser at his best and capable of going close if getting his jumping together in a race which should be run to suit.
Recommendation: Hunters Yarn (Each-Way) - 8/1 with Paddy Power (4 places)
6:40pm Punchestown - Anzadam (w/o Lossiemouth)
If in the same kind of form as when running out an impressive winner of the Unibet Champion Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, this should prove to be a fairly straightforward task for the mare Lossiemouth, one of three runners for Closutton trainer Willie Mullins. I am more interested in the market without the odds-on favourite, in particular Lossiemouth’s stablemate ANZADAM.
I’m convinced we have yet to see the best of the Authorized gelding this season, the mount of Danny Mullins losing all chance behind Lossiemouth at Prestbury Park following a bad mistake at the second hurdle. Wilful has been running well in valuable handicaps this season and looks sure to run his race, while Barry Connell’s William Munny goes into the race a fresh horse, the son of Westerner last seen finishing second to Kopec Des Bordes in last year’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. However, I think Anzadam is capable of a big run with conditions to suit, and could even give the favourite a race if Paul Townsend’s mount fails to produce her best at the end of a long season.
Recommendation: Anzadam (w/o Lossiemouth) - 4/1 with BetVictor
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
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