Alan Kelly’s Tips
Alan heads to Carlisle on Thursday for his best bet
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Following three excellent weeks we were due a bad one, and since Sea Lantern’s narrow Cesarewitch defeat little has gone right, the week ending Sunday 18th October resulting in a loss of -£13.82.
P/L for the week ending Sunday, 18 October: -£13.82
P/L for the year to date: +£199.60
P/L for the year 2025: +£22.38
P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
P/L since 1st September 2022: +£700.16
Alan Kelly's Tips - Thursday, 22 October
Horse Racing tips for the meetings at Carlisle and Newmarket on Thursday afternoon.
Carlisle’s eight-race card on Thursday is a cracker, although with the ground on the chase course on the firm side of good, the two races taking place over fences have attracted fields of 5 and 4. The feature race is the Listed Panoramic Hurdle at 4.12, one of the 8 contenders being Jeremy Scott’s Champion Hurdle winner of last year, Golden Ace.
The ground is forecast to be good to soft for Newmarket’s competitive meeting, which has attracted a total of 104 runners for the 8 races.
1:52pm Carlisle - Caballo De Guerra (Nap)
Having his first start for trainer Jake Thomas Coulson since leaving the Olly Murphy stable recently, top weight Trust House is probably in the grip of the handicapper at the moment after suffering defeats at Perth and Musselburgh under similar marks to that of today.
Dan Skelton’s Sytadel makes his handicap on just his third start over hurdles following defeats in maidens at Worcester and Uttoxeter. An opening mark of 115 looks high enough considering what the mount of 3lb claimer Harry Atkins has achieved, although the betting is likely to prove a better guide to the chances of the four-year-old gelding.
This Go North Sea Pigeon Series Qualifier for conditional jockeys is fancied to go the way of the talented Jack Power, who rides the Soldier Of Fortune gelding Caballo De Guerra for the Russell/Scudamore stable.
While the five-year-old has failed to add to his debut victory over hurdles at Kelso around this time last year, the horse has been set some stiff tests, including when finishing fifth in the Grade 2 bet365 Premier Novices’ Hurdle at the Borders racecourse back in February.
Following a break of 5 months, Caballo De Guerra reappeared in a 2m handicap at Perth last month in the hands of today’s jockey, just losing out by half a length off a mark of 115. Raised 1lb for that effort, the selection is expected to go one better with that race under his belt.
Recommendation: Caballo De Guerra (Nap) at 9/2
This is Alan's Nap of the Day selection - see how it stacks up against Charlie McCann's pick.
4:05pm Newmarket - Mo Of Cairo (E/W)
A typically wide-open Newmarket sprint handicap, but a good opportunity for the Kevin Ryan-trained Mo Of Cairo to record a first victory since winning a Beverley maiden last summer. The son of Havana Grey has ran some excellent races in defeat however, including when narrowly beaten in a 19-runner nursery at last year’s Ebor meeting at York off an opening handicap mark of 81.
The mount of talented 7lb claimer Toby Moore has performed well on all three starts since undergoing wind surgery in July, and looked particularly unlucky in races over the minimum trip at Musselburgh and Redcar when failing to get a clear run at a crucial stage in both handicaps. I think the grey colt is better over today’s extra furlong and is certainly handicapped to go close racing off a mark of 79.
In a race where it is hard to rule out many of the 15 runners, Ed Dunlop’s Sierra Sands and Henry Candy’s lightly-raced Space Party are feared most.
Recommendation: Mo Of Cairo (E/W)
4:12pm Carlisle - Burdett Road
Last seen finishing second to Lossiemouth in the Boodles Champion Hurdle at the Punchestown Festival, 8 lengths in front of fellow rival Wilful, Jeremy Scott’s Unibet Champion Hurdle winner of last year, Golden Ace, is one of 8 runners for this fascinating Listed contest.
The 126-rated Inner Success is an intriguing contender from France, although I have to admit to knowing little about the trainer or jockey. The five-year-old has won two of his 10 starts over hurdles and is certainly worth noting for any market confidence.
In a race where fitness is likely to play a part in the outcome, the vote goes to the horse who finished a fortunate runner-up to Golden Ace in that Champion Hurdle of last year, James Owen’s Burdett Road. Jonathan Burke’s mount has been kept busy on the Flat over the last few months, the highlight being an excellent 7th of 22 in the Ebor at York off a mark of 101.
Last seen finishing 5th when taking a keen hold in Newmarket’s Listed Jockey Club Rose Bowl Stakes last month, Burdett Road is likely to have a fitness advantage over most of his rivals and is expected to make a bold bid from towards the front.
Recommendation: Burdett Road at 8/1
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Free Bets in 2008.
You can follow Alan Kelly on X for more racing insight.
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