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Despite 3 out of 6 winning naps (8/15, 5/2 and 9/2) we ended last week with a very small profit of +£0.28.
While 7 of our last 11 naps have proved successful (three of the other four finished second) several of our more ambitious picks have been letting us down at the moment.
- P/L for the week ending Sunday, 18 January: +£0.28
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Alan Kelly's Tips - Saturday, 24 January
A fascinating afternoon of national hunt action from Cheltenham on Saturday featuring a mouth-watering clash between leading Champion Hurdle contenders Sir Gino and The New Lion in the Grade 2 Unibet Hurdle at 3:00pm.
The ITV Racing cameras will cover 5 of the races on the card along with three from Doncaster’s meeting on Town Moor.
12:55pm Doncaster - The Last Cloud (Each-Way)
Not a race which makes much appeal from a betting perspective, the Grade 2 contest for mares featuring a field of 12 runners, many of which are open to significant improvement over today’s extended 3m trip. At the 14/1 available with bet365 (4 places) the vote goes to the Patrick Neville-trained THE LAST CLOUD (Each-Way).
No match for talented novices Idaho Sun and Mydaddypaddy in the Grade 1 Formby Novices’ Hurdle on Boxing Day, Brian Hughes’ mount wasn’t suited by the last hurdle being omitted at Aintree and looks the type to be suited by this significant step-up in trip.
Recommendation: The Last Cloud (Each-Way) - 14/1 with bet365 (4 places)
1:15pm Cheltenham - Javert Allen (Each-Way)
The two horses at the head of the betting for this £100k Premier Handicap, Jagwar and Booster Bob will need to defy career-high marks of 149 and 141 respectively if they are to continue their progression up the chasing ladder. The former in particular could well make his mark in Graded Company.
However, in receipt of plenty of weight from the two principles, I think the Jane Williams-trained JAVERT ALLEN (Each-Way) is capable of winning for the first time since successful in his first two starts over fences towards the back end of 2024.
Sent off favourite for all four subsequent starts, the mount of Ciaran Gethings will be racing over this kind of trip for the first time, having previously been campaigned over two miles. At his most comfortable when allowed to bowl along at the head of affairs, the seven-year-old could take some pegging back off his low weight if getting into a nice rhythm up front.
Recommendation: Javert Allen (Each-Way) - 15/2 with bet365 (4 places)
1:30pm Doncaster - Feet Of A Dancer
Winner of this race 12 months ago, Jessica Harrington’s Jetara has been beaten on all 8 subsequent starts, albeit 4 of those coming in Grade 1 company. James Bowen’s mount has to concede weight to her 7 rivals, best of which is probably fellow Irish challenger FEET OF A DANCER.
Fourth in last year’s Pertemps Final at the festival, Paul Nolan’s charge proved no match for Gordon Elliott’s talented mare Wodhooh in a Leopardstown Grade 3 on her most recent start but finished ahead of fellow rivals Dream On Baby and Mousey Brown, a repeat of which should be good enough to take this below-par Grade 2 contest.
Recommendation: Feet Of A Dancer - 5/2 with William Hill
1:50pm Cheltenham - Final Orders
Heavily supported to win over today’s course and distance at Cheltenham’s December meeting on his first start for Irish trainer Emmet Mullins, the gamble on the ex French-trained J’Arrive De L’Est was foiled when the seven-year-old had to settle for second spot behind Gavin Cromwell’s FINAL ORDERS, the mount of cross country specialist Keith Donoghue.
Now meeting that horse on 6lb better terms, and with that initial run under his belt, Donagh Meyler’s mount will be fancied by many to reverse that form of two months ago. I thought the winner won with plenty in hand on his first try over Cheltenham’s unique fences however and expect the form to be confirmed on today’s revised terms.
Of those at a double-figure price, Chris Gordon’s Unanswered Prayers makes the most appeal.
Recommendation: Final Orders - 4/1 with William Hill
2:05pm Doncaster - Grand Geste (Nap)
Despite a rise of 10lb for winning last month's Tommy Whittle Chase at Haydock, the Parkinson/Smith-trained GRAND GESTE (Nap) is fancied to win a second valuable staying chase in just over a month. While the seven-year-old failed to win in 7 attempts over hurdles, the mount of Danny McMenamin has looked a totally different prospect since switching to fences this season.
A promising second behind Ben Pauling's 137-rated The Jukebox Kid on his chasing debut at Carlisle in November, Grand Geste went on to be beaten a nose at Newcastle 27 days later before heading for Haydock’s Tommy Whittle as the well-supported 15/8 market leader.
Jumping well at the head of affairs, Grand Geste always looked well in control, eventually coming home clear of his 11 rivals without being asked a serious question. While the selection needs to take another step forward off today’s revised mark, I expect this progressive staying chaser to prove up to the task. Top weight Deep Cove looks the main danger with New Order best of those at a double-figure price.
Recommendation: Grand Geste (Nap) - 7/2 with Paddy Power
2:25pm Cheltenham - Spillane’s Tower
A field of only four for this Gold Cup trial, headed by the Dan Skelton-trained Grey Dawning. The talented grey was impressive in winning Haydock’s Betfair Chase on his reappearance two months ago and is being lightly campaigned this season with March’s Gold Cup in mind.
Winner of the Turners as a novice two years ago, Harry Skelton’s mount is clearly the one to beat. However, Harry Skelton’s mount is unlikely to be cherry-ripe for this trial and could prove vulnerable in what may turn out to be a tactical affair.
The form of the Venetia Williams stable puts me off L’Homme Presse, while Gavin Cromwell’s Flooring Porter has not been seen since winning the Kerry National back in September 2024. Which leaves James Mangan’s SPILLANE'S TOWER as the one most likely to take advantage should the favourite underperform.
The JP McManus-owned eight-year-old will be more at home over this extended 3m 1f trip than when finishing third behind El Fabiolo in a 2m 3f hurdle race at Punchestown on the final day of last year. In receipt of 6lb from Grey Dawning, Jack Kennedy’s mount gets a tentative vote.
Recommendation: Spillane’s Tower - 5/1 with Coral
3:00pm Cheltenham - The New Lion
With the first two horses in the betting for this year’s Champion Hurdle taking each other on in today’s Grade 2 Unibet Hurdle over 2m 1f on the New course, there is guaranteed to be a major shake-up in the ante-post market for the hurdling crown come just after 3pm.
Nicky Henderson’s unbeaten Sir Gino heads the Champion Hurdle market at a best price 5/4, as opposed to the 4/1 available about THE NEW LION, the latter in receipt of 3lb from the Seven Barrows runner on this occasion.
A victory for Nico De Boinville’s mount would almost certainly see him go odds-on for the championship contest in less than two months' time. However, I have been a big admirer of The New Lion following an unbeaten novice campaign which culminated in a cosy win in the Turners’ at the Cheltenham Festival.
A faller at the second-last when holding a slight lead in Newcastle’s Fighting Fifth on his reappearance, a race I think Harry Skelton’s mount would have gone on to win but for that mishap, The New Lion can breathe some life into the Champion Hurdle picture by taking advantage of the weight he receives from Sir Gino in this significant trial.
Recommendation: The New Lion - 9/4 with Coral
3:35pm Cheltenham - Impose Toi
Our best chance of repelling the strong Irish challenge in this year’s Stayers’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival rests with the Nicky Henderson-trained IMPOSE TOI, the J P McManus-owned eight-year-old the only British runner priced up at odds of less than 33/1 for the championship contest on the third day of the festival.
Currently a best price 11/2 with bet365 for March’s stamina test, I expect those odds to shorten following the outcome of this trial, devoid of any runners from across the Irish Sea. Nico De Boinville’s mount has already won the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury and Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot this season. Now unbeaten on all three three starts since going up to this kind of trip, Impose Toi can prove too good once again for main rival Strong Leader and the progressive Ma Shantou.
Recommendation: Impose Toi - Evens with bet365
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
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