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Despite losing days on Friday and Sunday, an excellent week ended Sunday, 4 October, with a profit of +£24.63 to a £1 level stake.
The 20/1 success of Arqoob on Saturday was the most profitable of our five winning selections from ITV’s ten-race coverage.
P/L for the week ending Sunday, 4 October: +£24.63
P/L for the year to date: +£196.29
P/L for the year 2025: +£22.38
P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
P/L since 1st September 2022: +£696.85
Alan Kelly's Tips - Friday, 9 October
A cracking afternoon of horse racing under both codes on Friday afternoon, with nine races due to be shown on ITV Racing.
There is the prospect of some rain during the day, which would help to ease conditions at Newmarket and York on the Flat and Chepstow over Jumps.
1:30pm York - Beagle Bay (Nap)
Despite a competitive field of 18 runners for this Class 3 one mile handicap, I expect Ralph Beckett’s 94-rated BEAGLE BAY (Nap) to be running off a mark in the low 100’s before too long, the New Bay gelding already successful on both of his outings in handicaps at Yarmouth and Sandown.
Hector Crouch’s mount has missed a couple of potential attempts at valuable handicaps since winning at the Esher racecourse four months ago. The runner-up in that race, Roger Varian’s Raammee, has since gone on to win York’s John Smith’s Cup, along with another Heritage Handicap at the Ebor meeting.
With that horse now rated 110, Beagle Bay could well be capable of outclassing today’s 17, mainly exposed rivals, before a possible tilt at Listed or Group 3 company. William Haggas is always to be respected with his runners at York, but I will be surprised if his course winner of last month, Power Fizz, is capable of conceding 3lb to the selection, especially from his wide draw in stall 17.
Recommendation: Beagle Bay (Nap) - 5/2 with William Hill
This is Alan's Nap of the Day selection - see how it stacks up against Charlie McCann's pick.
3:12pm Chepstow - Doctor Blue
This Chepstow meeting always signifies the start of the new national hunt season for me, in particular this DragonBet ‘Welsh Champion’ Hurdle. Owner Dai Walters, trainer Sam Thomas and jockey Dylan Johnston will attempt to win the £50k limited handicap for the third year running following the successes of Lump Sum in 2024 and Celtic Dino 12 months ago.
Their lightly-raced six-year-old DOCTOR BLUE looks to have been laid out for the race after undergoing wind surgery during the summer, the son of Doctor Dino appearing not to get home in races at Doncaster and Newbury. The gelding is better judged on his narrow defeat in a Grade 2 novices’ hurdle at Cheltenham around this time last year.
The winner of that race, Fortune De Mer, is now rated 134, while the 6th and 7th horses home are now running off respective marks of 135 and 132. Despite having to race from 1lb out of the handicap, Doctor Blue looks potentially well-treated off a mark of 124 if able to repeat that kind of performance.
The Hobbs/White-trained Captain Hugo won Kelso’s Morebattle Hurdle back in February and is one of several potential dangers along with Le Beau Madrik from the Dan Skelton stable and top weight Laafi.
Recommendation: Doctor Blue - 13/2 with bet365
4:25pm York - Baldomero (Each-Way)
A typically wide-open York sprint handicap run over the minimum trip, the field of 18 runners headed by David O’Meara’s Toca Madera, last seen winning a Class 2 Conditions Stakes at Beverley last month. In receipt of 17lb from Daniel Tudhope’s mount, the Mick Appleby-trained BALDOMERO (Each-Way) makes plenty of appeal on just his second visit to the Knavesmire in a career spanning 75 starts to date.
Now racing off a career-low mark of 78, and with the excellent Joanna Mason taking over in the saddle for just the second time, the eight-year-old gelding, successful on three occasions over today’s minimum trip, would have a massive chance of repeating his effort here of 3 months ago when 6th of 21 in the valuable Sky Bet Dash (Heritage Handicap).
Holding every chance until well inside the final furlong of that race, the selection can be forgiven for his two recent defeats on soft ground at Beverley and Salisbury, and is fancied to run a big race from his draw in stall 10.
Recommendation: Baldomero (Each-Way) - 10/1 with Spreadex (5 places)
4:45pm Newmarket - Silver Lake
Following an unbeaten run of 4 in handicaps, I think William Haggas’s grey daughter of Night Of Thunder, SILVER LAKE, can make the transition into Group company with a victory in this mile and a quarter Pride Stakes, despite strong opposition from the John & Thady Gosden pair of Naga and Legacy Link, along with Owen Burrows’ 110-rated Touleen.
Such has been the improvement shown by the Wathnan-owned filly that James Doyle’s mount has gone up 24lb in the weights since winning on her handicap debut at Salisbury back in July. When a three-year-old filly starts to show significantly improved form at this time of the year, there is no knowing where that improvement is likely to end.
While Silver Lake is clearly on an upward curve, the same could not be said of the two highest raced contenders, Coronation Stakes runner-up Touleen and Epsom Oaks second Legacy Link, both beaten on two subsequent occasions. Of the rest, Ed Walker’s Felicitas is better than she showed at Salisbury last time and more than capable of making the frame.
Recommendation: Silver Lake - 6/1 with bet365
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Free Bets in 2008.
You can follow Alan Kelly on X for more racing insight.
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A successful punter, with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights down the years, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Free Bets.




