Alan Kelly’s Tips
Alan heads to Kempton on Monday for his best bet
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Latest Profit & Loss Figures
With very little turf racing taking place, we ended the week with a small profit of +£1.61, although three of our four naps obliged at odds of 11/4, 6/1, and 3/1 (25p R4).
- P/L for the week ending Sunday, 11 January: +£1.61
- P/L for the year 2026 to date: -£7.99
- P/L for the year 2025: +£22.38
- P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
- P/L since 1st September 2022: +£508.37
Alan Kelly's Tips - Monday, 19 January
Monday's jumps action comes from the meeting at Lingfield Park, where the ground is currently described as soft, good to soft in places.
The seven-race card is complemented by the all-weather fixtures at Kempton Park (afternoon) and Wolverhampton (evening).
Lingfield’s £30k Surrey National is a welcome treat on an otherwise ordinary Monday afternoon for the sport.
1:20pm Lingfield - Wondering Why
Plenty of promising types among the 18 contenders for this two mile maiden hurdle. Holeheartedy makes his hurdling debut for the Skelton stable after showing minor potential when finishing 6th in a National Hunt Flat Race at Warwick last month.
Zamek, with champion jockey Sean Bowen in the saddle, looks the main hope of the three Olly Murphy runners, although the six-year-old will need to improve upon his effort when fourth at Kempton on Boxing Day if he is to open his account over hurdles at the third attempt.
However, the three to concentrate on are the Gary & Josh Moore-trained Cayman Dancer, Tom Lacey’s Unjeu Royal and WONDERING WHY from the Ben Pauling stable. Cayman Dancer proved no match for Tim Vaughan’s Love Sonnet on his hurdling debut at Newbury last month, but the winner could be decent and Caoilin Quinn’s mount, a dual scorer on the all-weather in 2025, should be winning soon over the smaller obstacles.
Unjeu Royal probably came up against a decent horse in Glance At Midnight (rated 127) when attempting to give Andrew Martin's charge 3lb in a Huntingdon maiden back in November, finishing a clear second-best of the 11 runners. While Stan Sheppard’s mount is respected, Wondering Why and the bang-in-form pair of jockey Ben Jones and trainer Ben Pauling are fancied to come out on top.
The easy winner of a Huntingdon Bumper when trained by Richard Bandy last spring, Wondering Why, slightly disappointing when third on his hurdling debut at Southwell on his first outing for 209 days, improved for that first run to make 2024 Derby runner-up Ambiente Friendly pull out all the stops when just touched-off by James Owen’s charge at Huntingdon last month. A repeat of that effort should be good enough for the five-year-old to take this informative contest.
Recommendation: Wondering Why
1:50pm Lingfield - Ali Star Bert (Each-Way)
Nick Scholfield’s Bollin Thou did us a favour when hacking-up at Hereford last week and is sure to be a warm order to follow-up under a 7lb penalty later in the afternoon. However, from a betting perspective, this hugely competitive Surrey National makes more appeal with bookmakers going 6/1 the field.
It is easy to make a case out for many the runners in this stamina-sapping contest, headed by Emma Lavelle’s My Silver Lining who loves a test of stamina and goes into today’s race on the back of an excellent run when runner-up in Haydock’s Tommy Whittle just before Christmas.
Becher Chase third Val Dancer and Robert Walford's Art Deco are a couple more to make the short list, while Sam Thomas’s Special John, due to run at Windsor 24 hours earlier, would have major claims if rerouted here. However, despite racing from 3lb out of the handicap, the vote goes to the Shaun Harris-trained ALI STAR BERT (Each-Way).
The mount of talented 7lb claimer Murray Dodd has found a new lease of life lately, the 10-year-old an easy winner of two handicaps at Southwell towards the end of last year. A mark back in the 100’s will make things tougher for the gelding, but with his rider’s claim Ali Star Bert can outrun his odds in an attempt to land a hat-trick of wins.
Recommendation: Ali Star Bert (Each-Way)
2:38pm Kempton - Caliban (Nap)
James Owen’s Siouxfonic, a winner at Wolverhampton last month, has twice finished in front of the Andrew Balding-trained CALIBAN (Nap) in all-weather contests at Southwell and Wolverhampton towards the end of last year. On today’s terms, the latter is fancied to make it third time lucky in the hands of jockey Oisin Murphy, who takes over from Callum Hutchinson in the saddle for the first time.
After taking a keen hold in a Wolverhampton maiden last month, Caliban did well to get within a neck of Siouxfonic in receipt of 4lb with Goldolphin’s hot favourite Military Cross over five lengths back in third place. 5lb Better off today with Pat Cosgrave’s mount, it will be disappointing if Caliban is unable to turn the tables on the year older Siouxfonic, especially if Murphy is able to withhold his mount’s early enthusiasm.
Abando has his first start forJamie Osborne since leaving Marco Botti but will be of more interest when tackling handicap company, while best of the rest is probably Tom Clover's Aethelthryth.
Recommendation: Caliban (Nap)
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
You can follow Alan Kelly on Twitter for more racing insight.
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