Alan Kelly’s Horse Racing Tips
Horse racing tips for all eight live races on ITV Racing on Saturday
Alan Kelly Get fresh daily selections and a standout Nap of the Day from our in-house racing expert, Alan Kelly.
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Latest Profit & Loss Figures
We ended last week with a total of 10 winners, including successes at 14/1, 12/1 and 15/2, resulting in a healthy profit of +£35.58 to a £1 level stake.
I thought Saturday’s July Cup was ripe for a potential upset, unfortunately, I went for the wrong two outsiders, despite having napped the winner, No More Measures, when Richard Hughes’ charge finished second at Haydock on her previous start. No complaints though, on an otherwise excellent six days.
- P/L for the week ending Saturday 12th July: +£35.58
- P/L for the year 2025 to date: +£17.09
- P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
- P/L since 1st September 2022: +£503.08
Alan Kelly’s Horse Racing Tips
Saturday’s ITV Racing action features four races from Newbury, three from Market Rasen’s jumps card along with the Juddmonte Irish Oaks from the Curragh, the 1m 4f classic bringing the eight-race coverage to a close at 3:40pm.
Nap - Havana Hurricane (3:30pm Newbury)
Despite a field of 20 for this valuable juvenile contest, Eve Johnson Houghton’s Royal Ascot winner looks sure to prove hard to beat, granted average luck in running.
1:50pm Newbury - Enfjaar
Brian Meehan’s Rashabar, the only three-year-old in this 1m 2f Listed contest, will find this easier than when taking on Field Of Gold in the Irish 2000 Guineas and St James’s Palace Stakes on his last two starts. I’m not convinced the son of Holy Roman Emperor is crying out for this step-up in trip however, preference being for Roger Varian’s ENFJAAR, last seen finishing a close fourth behind Haatem in the Wolferton Stakes at the royal meeting.
Yet to make his mark in Listed/Group company since winning last year’s John Smith’s Cup at York, Jim Crowley’s mount gets the narrow vote with several of his rivals having something to prove based on recent performances.
Recommendation: Enfjaar - 11/4 with William Hill
2:05pm Market Rasen - Maghlaak (Each-Way)
At a best price 2/1, Olly Murphy’s top weight Deploy To Spy makes only limited appeal in a race more open than the betting would suggest. At the 9/1 on offer with bet365, the vote goes to the Adrian Paul Keatley-trained MAGHLAAK (Each-Way).
The six-year-old ran well for a long way in a Group 3 contest on the flat at York on Saturday and while far from consistent over the smaller obstacles, a reproduction of his third behind Wilful at Ayr’s Scottish Grand National meeting would put Danny McMenamin’s mount in with every chance of going close in this Class 3 contest.
Recommendation: Maghlaak (Each-Way) - 9/1 with bet365 (3 places)
2:25pm Newbury - Contacto (Each-Way)
As short as 6/4 with bet365, I don’t think Andrew Balding’s market leader Wild Waves had done enough on his four runs this season to justify those kinds of odds. In receipt of 13lb, I would rather back the favourite’s stablemate CONTACTO (Each-Way) and jockey Nicola Currie.
Beaten two and a half lengths in seventh place on his first attempt on an artificial surface in Newcastle’s Consolation Northumberland Plate last month, the study Of Man gelding had previously finished a more than respectable fourth in a 2m handicap at Goodwood’s May meeting behind last season’s Cesarewitch runner-up Manxman. Running off the same mark of 86 as in both of those handicaps, Contacto looks sure to run his usual game race.
Recommendation: Contacto (Each-Way) - 6/1 with Paddy Power (3 places)
2:40pm Market Rasen - Nibras Gold (Each-Way)
Hard to rule out many of the 15 contenders for this £60k Summer Handicap Hurdle. Trainer James Owen is responsible for four of the runners, best of which may be Sam Twiston Davies’ mount NIBRAS GOLD (Each-Way). Along with winning hurdle races at Worcester and Ffos Las for Pond House trainer David Pipe, the Golden Horn gelding finished second on no less than 8 occasions over hurdles and fences before joining Owen in the spring.
The seven-year-old is back over hurdles following a couple of wins on the flat at Beverley, together with a fourth-place finish at Newbury when badly hampered in the closing stages. Well beaten in this race 12 months ago, I expect a much better effort now that Nibras Gold has shown a decent level of form for a stable in good heart.
Recommendation: Nibras Gold (Each-Way) - 18/1 with bet365 (4 places)
2:57pm Newbury - Regional
The 1st, 3rd, 4th and 7th horses home in last year’s renewal take each other on once again, the winner on that occasion being the Karl Burke-trained Elite Status. While the Havana Grey colt is unbeaten on both of his visits to the Berkshire track, Clifford Lee’s mount will need to step-up on his 10th place finish in Royal Ascot’s Queen Elizabeth Jubilee Stakes last time if he is to record back-to-back successes in this Group 3 sprint.
The fourth horse home in last year’s race, Ed Bethell’s REGIONAL, was conceding 5lb to the winner 12 months ago. On equal terms this time and following an excellent effort when finishing a close third behind American Affair in the 5f King Charles 111 Stakes at the royal meeting, Callum Rodriguez’ mount is fancied to come out on top on this occasion. At a big price, the only three-year-old in the race, Kevin Ryan’s Ain’t Nobody, could go well for jockey Tom Eaves.
Recommendation: Regional - 5/2 with William Hill
3:12pm Market Rasen - Ballysax Hank (Each-Way)
Now with Sara Bradstock, the ex Willie Mullins-trained Horantzau d’Airy is an interesting contender for Market Rasen’s £100k Unibet Summer Plate (Premier Handicap), Jack Tudor’s mount 13th behind Nick Rockett in the Grand National when in the care of Michael Keady.
Last year's winner Sure Touch, along with the Bowen-trained pair of Courtland and Stauario, from a stable who target this race every year, are greatly respected. However, I like the chances of Gavin Cromwell’s Irish raider BALLYSAX HANK (Each-Way).
The booking of jockey Harry Cobden for the lightly-raced six-year-old certainly takes the eye, and following a couple of excellent runs in handicap hurdles recently, an opening chase mark of 128 may have underestimated the ability of this Downpatrick Beginners Chase winner of three months ago. The 6/1 currently available with bet365 looks more than fair.
Recommendation: Ballysax Hank (Each-Way) - 6/1 with bet365 (4 places)
3:30pm Newbury - Havana Hurricane (Nap)
Trainer Eve Johnson Houghton hasn’t enjoyed the best of luck in Newbury’s £250k Super Sprint in the past. However, off a rating of 100 and with just 8st 13lb to carry due to the conditions of the race, her Windsor Castle Stakes winner HAVANA HURRICANE (Nap), granted an untroubled passage, is easily the one they all have to beat.
An easy winner at Goodwood on his debut, the Havana Grey colt perhaps hit the front too soon over 6f on Epsom’s good to soft ground in the Woodcote Stakes at the Derby meeting before dropping back to the minimum trip at Royal Ascot.
Well on top at the end of that 23-runner Listed contest, Charles Bishop’s mount only needs a repeat of that effort to claim this valuable prize. The selection’s draw from stall 9 looks fair enough. At a double-figure price, Richard Hughes’ Our Cody, fresh from the stable’s July Cup victory of last week, makes some each-way appeal in receipt of weight from all of her rivals.
Recommendation: Havana Hurricane (Nap) - 6/4 with BetVictor
3:40pm Curragh - No Bet
A disappointing turnout for this Irish Classic which looks at the mercy of Ballydoyle’s Epsom Oaks winner Minnie Hauk. Fourth at Epsom, Joseph O’Brien’s Wemighttakedlongway looks destined for the runner-up spot in a race best watched.
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
You can follow Alan Kelly on Twitter for more racing insight.
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