Charlie McCann’s Horse Racing Tips Monday, 13 July - Newton Abbot, Ayr & Windsor
Charlie heads to Windsor on Monday for his best bet
It's a busy day of racing action in the UK and Ireland, and Charlie McCann is here with his exclusive free horse racing tips - only at FreeBets.
4:42pm Newton Abbot - Slaney Opera
Muskerry Rock is likely to be all the rage for the Skeltons' in the 3m2f handicap chase on the back of a terrific run over hurdles last time when beaten a head.
This Irish import won a Hunter Chase at Wexford back in May and is a dual winner between the flags. He had the third 8l in arrears when second at Market Rasen over timber last time, but he must race from a 15lbs higher mark over the larger obstacles.
He has the size and scope to be a much better chaser than hurdler, but the yard's horses are going off too short, and I am going to take a chance on bottom-weight SLANEY OPERA, who receives 19lbs from the likely favourite.
The selection did us a favour when scoring at Sedgefield at the beginning of the year when trained by Ruth Jefferson. He has not gone on since joining Nick Schofield but has dropped to a mark 2lbs below that winning mark in the northeast.
A multiple winner between the flags, he ran well for a long way in the John Corbet Cup at Stratford last May, and the hope is that Schofield can eke out some improvement in the 8-y-old.
Recommendation: Slaney Opera - 10/3 with bet365
5:05pm Ayr - Simple Star
Fast ground the order of the day at Ayr and, in the finale, I hope to see SIMPLE STAR reverse last month's comprehensive Musselburgh defeat at the hands of Cascade Hall.
That 5l+ defeat was over two miles, and the selection does not get that trip on the flat and is 11lbs better off with the winner this afternoon. If you go back further in the form book you see that Simple Star beat Cascade Hall by over two lengths at Musselburgh over 12f+ and is 3lbs better off this afternoon.
One slight concern with the selection is that he does tend to run his best races right-handed – Perth over jumps and Hamilton and Musselburgh on the level – and jockey Molly Gunn has not ridden a winner for almost twelve months, although that is only thirty-six rides.
Jake Dickson rides Cascade Hall and will likely try and make all. If this were Musselburgh, I would be more confident of a big run from Simple Star, but he gets the vote with course specialist Annandale considered the chief threat.
Recommendation: Simple Star - 8/1 with Spreadex
8:20pm Windsor - A Major Payne (Nap)
Silent City is likely to be all the rage, having looked to be ready for a step up in distance when a fast finishing third on her belated reappearance over a mile on the July course last month.
She can race from the same mark this evening, the excellent Ray Dawson takes over for the first time, but she didn't look the strongest of stayers at Lingfield over nine furlongs – her sole previous start beyond a mile – back in August, and might be over-bet as a result of what was an eye-catching comeback. A slowly run race would put less emphasis on stamina and would be a plus.
A MAJOR PAYNE (Nap) had finished runner up seven times prior to being ridden by Oisin Murphy for the first time at Nottingham on his penultimate start, when he duly lost his maiden tag from a 5lbs lower mark. The second – Primo Lara – has since won on tapeta while the selection has since finished third on ground softer than ideal at Lingfield.
That Lingfield effort came just three days after his Nottingham success, and Michael Bell has given the 5-y-old over five weeks to get over those exertions. The hope is that he is fresher following his short break, while the booking of the champion jockey is a plus.
The mare Shady Bay is edging up the weights, but she was impressive when scoring at Nottingham and has a good strike rate. She is considered the main danger.
Recommendation: A Major Payne (Nap) - 5/2 with bet365
*Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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