Charlie McCann's Horse Racing Tips Saturday, 8 August - Ascot, Haydock, Newbury & Ayr
Charlie heads to Ascot on Saturday for his best bet
It's a busy day of racing action in the UK and Ireland, and Charlie McCann is here with his exclusive free horse racing tips - only at FreeBets.
3:55pm Ascot - Hoseki (Nap)
The 12f three-year-old handicap at Ascot's Shergar Cup meeting features two horses I have on my radar, with HOSEKI (Nap) and Level Look declared in the ten-runner field.
I am not overly familiar with French jockey Frida Valle Skar, but she rode a winner at Deauville on Thursday and takes over on Level Look, who looked an unlucky loser at Chester – albeit in a weaker race – on Sunday when I felt Oisin Murphy thought it was one that got away.
Murphy had to tuck in at the back of the pack from his draw, but was then a hostage to fortune as he waited for gaps at the top of the home straight. In the end, he got going too late and passed the post a length-and-a-half behind the winner in a never-nearer second. He races from the same mark today, but the stats – if not the logic – suggest that stall one is a poor draw over 12f at Ascot.
At 12/1 I may well back Andrew Balding's gelding in the market without Hoseki, but the latter – the mount of Saffie Osborne – will be tough to beat having won all three starts so far this summer for William Haggas, including over course and distance last time for a 5lbs lower mark.
The selection only won a short head here last month, but he and another progressive filly - Nochebuena – were nicely clear, and a 5lbs rise is fair. Osborne will be the sixth different jockey the three-year-old has had in his six starts, and although he is short enough in the betting at 15/8, he looks sure to run a big race. I would suggest there will be 2/1 about on Friday evening or Saturday morning.
Recommendation: Hoseki (Nap) - 15/8 with Paddy Power
1:50pm Haydock - Saxophonist
The hope is that Brighton View is put in short for the opening 10f three-year-old handicap, given he carries a 6lbs penalty for winning a poor three-runner Yarmouth race over 12f on Sunday. The drop back in distance is of no concern, and Oisin Murphy is booked, but I hope to see SAXOPHONIST go one better than at Doncaster last time.
Looking back on that race in South Yorkshire, I thought Callum Rodriguez thought he had the race in the bag when taking it up inside the final furlong, only to be mugged close home. He has been raised 1lb for that narrow defeat, and Danny Tudhope will want to leave his challenge as late as possible.
Recommendation: Saxophonist - 10/3 with bet365
2:25pm Newbury - Danger Bay (w/o Sallaal)
Sallaal has been progressing nicely and was well on top at the line when scoring in listed company last time for Roger Varian. The second – Persica - has since come out and won in that grade, and he is an odds-on favourite to take the Group 3 Rose Of Lancaster Stakes.
It will be interesting to see what the going is like at Haydock, and I will be monitoring times on their Friday evening meeting, their first since they found a hole in the track earlier in the summer. Sallaal is a best price of 10/11 on Friday morning and could be a Group 1 horse, but Varian has suggested that his four-year-old is not the bravest – he fought well at Sandown last time – and I am backing DANGER BAY (w/o Sallaal).
Zetland Gold Cup winner Danger Bay would have followed up in the John Smith's Cup at York last time had he had a clear run, and Ed Bethell's four-year-old is taken to make a successful transition to Pattern company, himself, although the recommendation is in the market without the market leader.
Danger Bay is rated 15lbs lower than Sallaal, but this strong traveller might be well suited if the race turns tactical, with outsider Sea Scout the likely pace-setter.
I am beginning to run out of excuses for Convergent, but I, bizarrely, do believe that the ground was too soft at Epsom on his penultimate start, while conditions were too quick at Newmarket last time. He carries a 3lbs penalty for his John Porter success at Newbury back in the spring, but good ground clearly suits, and I have not given up hope that he is a Group 1 horse.
Add the unexposed Gosden-trained four-year-old Nahraan, and you get a fabulous race.
Recommendation: Danger Bay (w/o Sallaal) - 9/4 with bet365
6:30pm Ayr - Tiger
Rain is forecast at Ayr, and conditions are likely to be good to soft for this evening's meeting.
Dryburgh remains a maiden but should have won at Doncaster last time when he got out too late and was still half a length down at the line under Tom Marquand. He is 4lbs higher in the weights this evening, and Sam James takes over for Oli Rix, but he will relish the give in the ground and is considered the chief threat to TIGER, who did us a favour when scoring at Chester on Sunday.
Tiger carries a 5lbs penalty for that facile success and must carry 10st 7lbs, but Ryan Kavanagh takes off 3lbs and he will certainly be raised more than 5lbs when he is reassessed on Tuesday. The forecast rain is considered a plus, and it is significant that he also holds entries at Windsor (10f) on Monday and Kempton (12f) on Wednesday.
Recommendation: Tiger - 9/4 with bet365
*Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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