EFL Tips: Gab Sutton's Championship, League 1 & League 2 Tips for November 29
We have another full round of EFL action this weekend, kicking off on Friday night as Oxford take on Ipswich in the Championship.
Free Bets' EFL expert Gab Sutton has lined up his top EFL tips and predictions for the best of this weekend's EFL fixtures.
EFL Betting Tips
Here's Gab's five EFL betting tips this weekend - perfect for a weekend EFL acca - plus the best prices and latest odds from our selection of UK betting sites.
Middlesbrough vs Derby - Double Chance: Draw/Derby
With six wins in their last seven league games, Derby are among the Championship’s form sides.
John Eustace’s men were hit by injuries in the early weeks, but since key men like Sondre Langas and Patrick Agyemang returned from injury, they’ve picked up their excellent form from the final quarter of last season.
Middlesbrough might be five places above the Rams, which is why they’re favourites, but it’s only a four-point gap, and their four straight wins at the start of the league season is doing a lot of the heavy lifting in that regard.
A lot has happened since then, namely boss Rob Edwards leaving controversially for the Wolves job, and the team has only won four of their last 13 league games – form favours the visitors.
After a mixed interim tenure for Adi Viveash, Boro are banking on a fresh impact from new head coach Kim Hellberg, who looks an exciting appointment, but the club may yet suffer from the sense of upheaval provided by Edwards’ exit.
Meanwhile, the visitors have more stability on the field, and are in better form – they could be underrated to avoid defeat at 23/20.
West Brom vs Swansea - Double Chance: Draw/Swansea
Seventeenth-placed West Brom are as close in points (five), to the Play-Offs as their 19th-placed visitors, so it’s understandable that the hosts would be favourites – but for them to be odds-on seems a bit of a push.
Ryan Mason’s side have only won one of their last seven league games, and while that includes tough encounters like Coventry and Ipswich away, and Birmingham at home, it also includes Sheffield Wednesday and Oxford at home – they’d have wanted to win both of those games, but failed to defeat the beleaguered Owls.
The Baggies have a tendency to start well, but then struggle to sustain it, and that’s evidenced by the stats: they’ve won just four of the eight matches in which they’ve been leading at half-time.
The Albion have scored 11 goals in the first half of their matches, conceding five, but they’ve also scored just six goals in the second halves, shipping a whopping 15.
Many feel those second-half dips are down to fitness levels around endurance, so there’s reason to get against them when the price is right.
Conventionally, there’s not an enormous case for Swansea, who have lost their last four, but there could be some value in gambling on an instant impact for new head coach Vítor Matos.
Huddersfield vs AFC Wimbledon - Huddersfield to win
The timing of Saturday’s game favours Huddersfield.
The Terriers went into the season as one of the favourites for promotion, having spent big under ambitious owner Kevin Nagle, but a poor run of form saw them drop out of the top six, while Wimbledon were surprising everybody by punching their way in.
Lee Grant’s side, though, have moved within two points of the top six with two wins in three, while the visitors have lost their last three, dropping to 9th.
Johnnie Jackson’s men will be glad they banked so many points early in the campaign, having already amassed half the points they’ll need for survival, with performances like the 5-0 drubbing at Peterborough causing concern for the Londoners that they could soon plummet.
Well-organised though the Dons can be, they could struggle to contain the movement of the hosts, who thrive on rotations.
Sometimes right-back Lasse Sorensen will venture in midfield with Ben Wiles holding the width by overloading the flank, while at other times Wiles will charge beyond forward Dion Charles, who may drop in and link play.
Grant’s tactics have at times been criticized for square pegs in round holes, with players sometimes operating away from positions they’d ordinarily be associated with, but an idea that might look disjointed when executed poorly can look fluid or unpredictable when executed well.
Right now, Town are executing Grant’s ideas well, and they are re-introducing themselves to the top six equation.
Barnet vs Harrogate - Barnet to win
Since losing their first three league games, Barnet have fast established themselves as one of the division’s most reliable sides with two defeats in 14, although they’re also now winless in five.
The Bees are hoping to welcome back withdrawn forward Rhys Browne, who’s desire to make things happen was key to their National League title-winning success, and poacher Britt Assombalonga, who was… well, poached, as a free agent in autumn.
Those two could be the parmesan on Dean Brennan’s gnocchi, for those familiar with the pasta analogies, because the North (of) London outfit have been the better side in most of their games of late, but had issues converting.
With Lee Ndlovu’s physical hold-up play, Idris Kanu’s speedy wing play, Ryan Glover’s trickery and flair on the opposite flank, and Callum Stead’s strong runs into goalscoring positions, Barnet have all the means to carve teams open.
As such, Harrogate will need goalkeeper James Belshaw and centre-back Anthony O’Connor to be on top form, in order to have any sort of chance.
Simon Weaver’s side are decimated by injury, and have taken a solitary point from their previous seven games – that coming at Notts County, where the boss could only name three substitutes on the bench.
Walsall vs Bromley - Under 1.5 goals
Walsall’s style of football revolves heavily around crosses into the box, which may not be as effective against 3rd-place Bromley as it is against other opponents, for several reasons.
Firstly, the Saddlers are missing industrious target man Aaron Pressley who, while far from perfect, has the legs to apply pressure on opposing defences for the duration, whereas his injury replacement, Jamille Matt, is coming to the end of his career.
Secondly, the visitors have tall centre-backs: 6’6” Omar Sowunmi, and 6’5” Deji Elerewe, so you’re just not going to create chances against them by winning aerial duels in the box, and that’s the home side’s natural game plan.
There’s a high probability that Mat Sadler’s side will try to get deliveries in from Connor Barrett, Vincent Harper and Evan Weir or the midfielders, and find their attempts rebuffed – and finding alternative solutions may not come easy.
Conversely, the hosts are more aggressive than Andy Woodman’s side, who may adopt a low block, compact approach to nullify their opponents, and maybe not have quite so many counter-attacking opportunities of their own.
It would be of no surprise if this game finished 0-0, so we wouldn’t put our punters off dabbling in the perilous correct score market, but the Under 1.5 bet gives us some cover if the game’s decided by a solitary strike for either side.
More Football Tips
Check out below for more football tips and predictions on this week's football action.
