Hull vs Middlesbrough Tips & Bet Builder: Championship Playoff Final Preview
EFL pundit Gab Sutton picks his best football tips for the Championship Play-Off Final, and discusses the unique circumstances of it.
Hull City v Middlesbrough Tips
It would be remiss of us to delve into this Play-Off Final without reflecting on the events that have created it.
Because, for the first time ever, not just in England but presumably in most nations around the world, the two teams that won the Semi-Finals of a major professional football competition won’t be the two teams that compete in the Final.
The last time anything like this happened in this country came back in 1990, when Sunderland won promotion to the First Division at Swindon’s expense, due to alleged financial irregularities.
Off the back of Spygate – a situation you’ll know about by now, unless you’re living under a rock – there was no one-size-fits-all solution that feels fair to everyone whilst reflecting the essence of the competition.
Were Southampton able to play the final at Wembley like normal, but with a fine or a points deduction, Middlesbrough would have felt wronged.
If Hull were were simply promoted without having to win the final, they would have been extremely fortuitous and it would have felt unearned.
In that sense, perhaps the actioned solution of Middlesbrough playing them in Southampton’s place is the fairest of the three, but it still feels unearned for them as well having lost the Semi-Final.
It’s good to see cheating taken a stand against, for the first time in far too long, but with the outcome of a bit of a head-scrambler of a final.
It’ll feel odd that a team that didn’t win the Semi-Final is competing in the Final, but if that’s what it takes to send a message that champions sporting integrity, then perhaps the peculiarity is worth it in the name of the bigger cause.
Tip 1 - Middlesbrough to win in 90 minutes – 10/11 (Unibet)
What had looked like a compelling automatic promotion bid from Middlesbrough, ultimately fell down through wasteful finishing, particularly in the run-in,
After winning 2-1 at Sheffield United in February with a great performance at Bramall Lane, they travelled to Coventry the following Monday with many neutrals expecting a statement showing to secure themselves as the new promotion favourites.
Instead, the Boro were off their game in the Midlands and lost 3-1 to the eventual champions, in a result that initiated a downturn of 18 points from 14 games.
The sequence included a run of five consecutive home games against bottom half opposition, and they dropped points in all of them – but, oddly, without the performance levels dipping too much from the four, four and six-match winning streaks they’d enjoyed earlier in the campaign.
Middlesbrough still played well, they did all the right things trying to prize open those low blocks, but their finishing was horrendous.
Tommy Conway plays his best football out wide as a creator, and had a fantastic game in that regard in the goalless 1st leg draw with Southampton, particularly in the first half, and has an exceptional work ethic.
At the same time, he’s not a killer in front of goal – he’s unavailable, too, with an ankle injury - and profligacy from him and David Strelec has seen far too many dropped points for the Boro in winnable games.
While it’s possible that wasteful finishing could cost Boro, the sheer volume of chances they’ll create against Hull suggests that two or three of them will go in.
The Tigers have the second-worst xG Against in the Championship at 82.69, and the only reason they’ve only conceded 65 – which is still the fourth-most – is because they have goalkeeper Ivor Pandur, who has made the most saves in the second-tier this season.
With John Egan and Regan Slater holding down their respective defence and midfield units single-handedly at times, Hull will need to ride their luck.
Plus, from the start of February, the Tigers only won four league matches in 17: one of them was against bottom side Sheffield Wednesday, who’d long been relegated by March, and one of them was a 1-0 win at Portsmouth where they only had two shots at goal all game to 22, and got their goal as a result of the opposition goalkeeper passing it to Matt Crooks.
Tip 2 - Both Teams To Score – 10/11 (bet365)
We’ve been critical of Hull in the above section, and it’s important to balance that out because, to reach the Play-Offs having just avoided relegation the year before, and only been able to recruit frees and loans in the summer due to a transfer ban, is an astonishing achievement.
From that point of view, Sergej Jakirovic and Dean Holden deserve enormous respect for what they’ve done on Humberside, to mould them into a team that can be one game away from the Premier League.
They’re up there for a reason, and it’s because they have an ability, without controlling games, to cut their opponents open in five or six attacks in a match, and they have forwards who can do damage in those moments.
Namely, 18-goal man Oli McBurnie, who has been an unbelievable focal point for the Tigers, withdrawn forward Joe Gelhardt himself has 14, while wide men Liam Millar and the returning Mohamed Belloumi can do damage.
Belloumi, in fact, scored a sensational goal in the 2-0 Semi-Final 2nd leg, as he looks to establish himself in the Algeria fold ahead of the 2026 World Cup, and has made a tremendous difference since returning from injury.
With that in mind, there’s a good chance Hull can get on the score sheet, as well as Middlesbrough.
Tip 3 - Morgan Whittaker to score anytime – 19/10 (BetVictor)
It’s almost a given how the game will go, with Middlesbrough dominating the territory, even if it’s less clear who will take the chance.
But with Hull likely to be on the back-foot for large swathes, the Boro might need a touch of individualism from outside the box to decide the match, and it could come from Morgan Whittaker.
The former Plymouth Argyle forward finished the league campaign with three goals in as many games, and has always been the type of player who can conjure up something out of nothing. We think he could be the difference maker!
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