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Latest Profit & Loss Figures
Despite winners at 8/1 and 7/4 on Saturday, a minor loss of -£3.50 on the week, mainly down to blank days on Wednesday and Thursday.
- P/L for the week ending Sunday, 29 March: -£3.50
- P/L for the year 2026 to date: +£68.60
- P/L for the year 2025: +£22.38
- P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
- P/L since 1st September 2022: +£569.26
Alan Kelly's Tips - Friday, 3 April
Good Friday's three all-weather fixtures are now down to two following the news that Chelmsford has lost its licence to host fixtures, putting the racecourse’s future in some doubt.
Thankfully, Newcastle's valuable card featuring the all-weather championships heads ITV Racing's 11-race coverage along with that of Lingfield Park.
1:50pm Newcastle - Al Najashi
Jockey Billy Loughnane has a fabulous record on the all-weather and the talented young rider is in strong demand by trainers for Newcastle’s valuable championship card. Loughnane has been booked to ride the Ollie Sangster-trained AL NAJASHI in this £150k 3 year old championship contest for the first time, the Territories colt now running off a mark of 85 following an unbeaten run of 4 in handicaps, starting with a victory at Southwell in January with an opening rating of just 53.
This is by far and away the toughest task Al Najashi has faced so far, but such was the authority of the colt’s two most recent successes (both over 7f) at Wolverhampton and here at Newcastle, that the selection is fancied to continue his winning run at the main expense of Andrew Balding’s unexposed Silent Strike and Jamie Osborne’s top weight Ten Carat Harry.
Recommendation: Al Najashi - 4/1 with bet365
2:25pm Newcastle - Indigo Dream (Each-Way)
Like Billy Loughnane, jockey Oisin Murphy has a cracking book of rides on the card, one of which is the Andrew Balding-trained Stateira in this 7f fillies’ and mares’ championships handicap, the daughter of Persian King unbeaten on both of her starts at the north-east racecourse.
The filly has been raised 10lb for her easy victory here in January but will still be fancied by many to follow-up off today’s much higher mark. However, I think the third horse home on that occasion, Ross O’Sullivan’s Irish challenger INDIGO DREAM (Each-Way) can get a lot closer to the market leader on 11lb better terms, especially with bet365 offering 4 places on the race and quoting a best price 11/1.
An easy winner of a Dundalk maiden just before Christmas, the daughter of Havana Grey has a potentially good draw from stall 11, while the booking of jockey Jamie Spencer is another plus. Expect to see the filly finishing fast and late.
Recommendation: Indigo Dream (Each-Way) - 11/1 with bet365 (4 places)
4:10pm Newcastle - Gaucher (Nap)
Andrew Balding’s Regal Ulixes finished an eyecatching sixth over an inadequate trip of just over a mile in Wolverhampton’s BetMGM Lincoln Trial last month and is sure to prove popular for this £178k Easter Classic Middle Distance Handicap in the hands of Oisin Murphy. The four-year-old could finish only 6th when favourite for a trial here back in January off a 5lb lower mark however and looks short enough at a best price 11/4.
On a card featuring several Irish contenders, Closutton maestro Willie Mullins sends over just the one runner, top weight GAUCHER (Nap) with Billy Loughnane in the saddle. The seven-year-old son of Frankel won 4 of his 14 starts over hurdles prior to making his all-weather debut with a promising fourth in a 2m Dundalk handicap back in November.
Dropping down in trip for his next two starts, both at Dundalk, Gaucher had little trouble in winning on each occasion, earning a mark of 106 in the process. Ethical Diamond’s Ebor and Breeders’ Cup successes highlight just how dangerous Mullins can be when targeting these valuable Flat prizes, and at the 4/1 on offer with William Hill, Gaucher can land another decent pot for the record-breaking Irish handler.
Recommendation: Gaucher (Nap) - 4/1 with William Hill
Grand National (Antepost) - Final Orders (Each-Way)
With less than a month to go before the 2026 renewal of Aintree’s Randox Grand National, a good time to try and pinpoint a bit of early value in the ante-post market for the world’s most famous steeplechase. At the 50/1 currently available with William Hill about Gavin Cromwell’s Final Orders, I think last week’s Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase winner is way overpriced for the extended 4m 2f test of jumping and stamina.
Currently standing at number 40 in the pecking-order and with a maximum permitted field of 34, the 10-year-old is not guaranteed his place, but with several doubtful runners higher up in the handicap I will be surprised if the Camelot gelding ends up as one of the reserves. A greater doubt revolves around possible ground conditions at the Merseyside racecourse on April 11th, as Final Orders needs decent going to produce his best form.
With current top weight I Am Maximus (winner in 2024) a certain runner barring accidents, Final Orders has a lovely racing weight of just 10st 5lb. Five of the first 12 winners of the race in the 21st century were 10-year-olds, and while Cheltenham's cross country chase has only been going since 2005, dual Grand National winner Tiger Roll won that unique three miles five and a half furlong contest in both of the years he was victorious at Aintree.
Of Final Orders’ seven successes over fences, five came over distances ranging from two to three miles, showing the kind of versatility needed to win a race requiring both pace and stamina in equal measures (also a winner over 1m 4f on the flat). If conditions are similar at Aintree to those of last week (good to soft), a reproduction of his comfortable victory over favourite Favori De Champdou would give the selection a much better chance of emulating Tiger Roll than his current odds would indicate.
Recommendation: Final Orders (Each-Way) - 50/1 with Unibet (4 places)
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
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