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With 15 winning days out of the last 17, another very good week with a profit of +£18.37, making it the third successful week in a row, the highlights being the victories of Sea Thrift (11/1 on Thursday) and Pep Talking (16/1 with a 5p R4 on Saturday).
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Alan Kelly's Tips - Monday, 3 November
Monday afternoon’s horse racing tips come from the meetings at Kempton Park (all-weather), Hereford and Plumpton, while we also have a selection for Australia’s Melbourne Cup which takes place in the early hours of Tuesday morning.
1:38pm Plumpton - Strolling Along
The trainer/jockey partnership of Olly Murphy and Sean Bowen will be fancied to take this novices’ handicap chase with the consistent Traveling Soldier, placed in the last 5 of his 6 starts over fences, including a victory at Market Rasen during the summer. The son of Mahler can often hit a flat spot in his races and may benefit from the fitting of blinkers for the first time.
In a race which shouldn’t take too much winning, this looks a good starting point for the Dan Skelton-trained STROLLING ALONG, who makes his chasing debut following a couple of runs in handicap hurdles earlier in the year. Third of 14, beaten less than two lengths, at Huntington in April behind a horse, Fergal O’Brien’s Casting Aspersions, who would go on to win his next two starts, the mount of 3lb claimer Tristan Durrell may have found the step-up to 2m 7f against him when a beaten favourite at Bangor a month later.
After taking keen hold on that occasion, the Walk In The Park gelding, after holding every chance 2 out, had nothing left to give in the closing stages behind winner Heather Honey, who would go on to win again on that course off a 6lb higher mark. Strolling Along has the scope to make a better chaser than hurdler and connections could not have found a better opportunity for the youngest horse in the field on his first outing over the bigger obstacles.
Recommendation: Strolling Along - 5/2 with bet365
2:30pm Kempton - Back In Black (Each-Way) (Nap)
James Fanshawe won this Class 2 handicap with Heathcliff 12 months ago, and after being withdrawn from the 7f contest at the final declaration stage, his trainer has decided to rely on the four-year-old's younger stablemate BACK IN BLACK (Each-Way) (Nap).
The grey son of Dark Angel will be making his debut on an artificial surface following three excellent efforts on turf this year, the most recent when beaten three quarters of a length by Cerulean Bay at Goodwood last month after failing to get the clearest of runs.
The mount of Daniel Muscutt likes to be held up, and if able to get a clear passage from his inside draw from stall 1, is fancied to go close. Jack Channon’s bottom weight Sarab Star, a winner over today’s course and distance in August, makes his handicap debut off a reasonable mark of 88 and may give the selection most to do.
Recommendation: Back In Black (Each-Way) (Nap) - 11/2 with bet365 (4 places)
3:00pm Kempton - Shader
Racing off a mark of 100, the John & Thady Gosden-trained SHADER is the second lowest rated contender for this mile and a half Listed race. The Juddmonte-owned four-year-old is very lightly raced however and has won both of his starts on the all-weather with some ease, whereas it is easy to find fault with all of his higher-rated rivals.
Simon & Ed Crisford’s West Wind Blows has not been seen since running with credit in Group 1 company down under almost two years ago and is likely to come on for today’s race, whereas Karl Burke’s Aimeric and Godolphin’s Live Your Dream were beaten 36 lengths and 33 lengths respectively on their most recent starts. High Stock, the only three-year-old in the race, was last of 12 in the Hampton Court Stakes at Royal Ascot before running much better to finish fourth in a Listed race at Goodwood in September.
In receipt of 5lb from the rest of the field, Andrew Balding’s charge is respected. However, I think we have yet to see the best of Colin Keane’s mount, who returns to the scene of his easy victory on this course last September, since when the Shamardal colt has finished a close third in an ultra-competitive handicap at Haydock following a break of 257 days. Shader can take this Listed race before going on to better things for his powerful connections.
Recommendation: Shader - 10/3 with bet365
4:20pm Hereford - My Portia (Each-Way)
A pretty poor two mile handicap chase in which it could be worth taking a chance on the Laura Morgan-trained mare MY PORTIA (Each-Way). The seven-year-old’s only victory to date from seven starts over fences came at Market Rasen back in January with today's rider Brian Hughes in the saddle.
That comfortable win off a 3lb lower mark would put the each-way selection in with every chance of taking a race of this nature. A bad mistake when leading at Leicester on her next start resulted in My Portia weakening out of contention, while the mare was found to have bled when being pulled-up at Catterick 12 days later.
Now down to a mark of 79, My Portia certainly has the ability to win this if running up to that Market Rasen form.
Recommendation: My Portia (Each-Way) - 8/1 with bet365 (4 places)
4:00am Flemington (Tuesday) - Onesmoothoperator (Each-Way)
It may well be a case of the heart ruling the head, but I think the Brian Ellison-trained ONESMOOTHOPERATOR (Each-Way) has excellent each-way claims in the “race that stops a nation” which takes place in the early hours of Tuesday morning.
Following his victory in the Geelong Cup last October, the seven-year-old was sent off the 6/1 second favourite for last year’s Melbourne Cup, only to finish a staying-on 12th after being given plenty to do by rider Craig Williams. Jockey Harry Coffey takes over in the saddle today.
Onesmoothoperator was still beaten less than six lengths however, and is fancied to improve upon that position following another success down under when running out a cosy winner of last month’s Group 2 Moonee Valley Gold Cup.
Recommendation: Onesmoothoperator (Each-Way) - 25/1 with bet365 (5 places)
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
You can follow Alan Kelly on Twitter for more racing insight.
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