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A small loss of -£3.17 for the week ending Sunday, 8 February, despite three winning naps out of five, taking our recent naps total to 17 from 24.
- P/L for the week ending Sunday, 8 Feburary: -£3.17
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Alan Kelly's Tips - Thursday, 12 February
Heavy conditions are forecast for Thursday’s three jumps meetings, Taunton and Leicester in Britain and Clonmel in Ireland, the latter subject to a 12pm inspection on Wednesday.
1:30pm Leicester - Grandad's Cap (Nap)
This two and a half mile novices’ handicap chase looks to concern Laura Morgan’s top weight Grandad’s Cap and Moor End from the Emma-Jane Bishop stable, with preference for the former, who is 3lb well-in under a 7lb penalty for the Mahler gelding’s comfortable victory at Market Rasen on the opening day of this month.
Following four unsuccessful attempts over hurdles, including in a Grade 2 contest at Cheltenham, Kevin Brogan’s mount made a pleasing first appearance over fences when staying-on to finish third over 2m 3f at Catterick over the Christmas period. Stepping up to 3m at Market Rasen for his second start over fences, Grandad’s Cap, after being held-up off the pace, cruised through to take up the running going to 3 out, after which the result was never in doubt.
While today’s half a mile shorter trip may not be ideal, the heavy ground is sure to bring the unexposed six-year-old’s stamina into play. As with Grandad’s Cap, Moor End has improved for the switch to fences, Lilly Pinchin’s mount successful on his chasing debut at Uttoxeter before putting up decent efforts in defeat at Lingfield and over today’s course and distance towards the end of last year.
While the son of Kingston Hill looks sure to win his fair share of races, Grandad’s Cap is the one with the greater potential of the pair and fancied to take advantage of today’s lenient mark of 102.
Recommendation: Grandad's Cap (Nap) at 4/6 (bet365)
3:25pm Taunton - Brentford Hope
While clearly flattered when finishing a length and a half third of four behind Champion Hurdle favourite The New Lion in Cheltenham’s Grade 2 Unibet International Hurdle at Prestbury Park last month, that was still a fine effort by Harry Derham’s Brentford Hope, who has appreciated the return to the smaller obstacles since falling to make his mark in two attempts over fences at the beginning of the season.
The soft conditions at the home of national hunt racing almost certainly brought out the best in the Camelot gelding, the mount of 7lb claimer Megan Fox sure to relish today’s even more testing ground, and off a mark only 4lb higher than when the pair were successful in a Challenger Two Mile Series Qualifier at Haydock a week prior to that excellent run on Trial’s Day at Cheltenham.
The nine-year-old has an excellent record when racing on soft/heavy ground, both on the flat and over hurdles, including when finishing second of 24 behind Willie Mullins’ classy Daddy Long Legs in a Listed handicap hurdle at the 2024 Punchestown Festival off a mark of 143. With conditions to suit in this Class 3 contest, Brentford Hope is fancied to record his 7th victory from 22 starts over hurdles.
If the prices allow, I may have a saver on the Fergal O’Brien contender Jack Hyde, the mount of 5lb claimer Tom Broughton. Three from 9 over hurdles, the son of Soldier Of Fortune was strongly supported to take a competitive handicap at Cheltenham’s November meeting only to find Nicky Martin’s French Emperor just over a length too good. The eight-year-old will be having his first start since wind surgery last month and off a mark of 124 looks the main danger to the selection.
Recommendation: Brentford Hope at 13/2 (PP)
3:50pm Leicester - Rosscahill
Champion jockey Sean Bowen has been booked to partner the Tom Gretton-trained One Last Glance for the first time in this Class 4 handicap chase. In receipt of plenty of weight from his four rivals, the nine-year-old should be able to make the frame at the very least with conditions to suit.
No match for the O’Neill’s Jipcot when finishing a well-beaten second to that horse on this course last month, Robbie Llewellyn’s No Tackle has a good record on the course with two of his three wins to date over fences coming at Leicester and another decent performance can be expected from Liam Harrison’s mount.
However, on just his second start over fences, Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies’ top weight Rosscahill could prove in a different league to his four rivals in this Class 4 contest. A dual winner over hurdles at Ffos Las, the second on heavy ground, the seven-year-old was backed as if defeat was out of the question on his chasing debut in an extended 3m 1f handicap at the Welsh racecourse back in October.
A bad mistake at the 8th fence when up with the pace resulted in the Malinas gelding eventually being pulled-up after losing touch with the leaders. The betting for that Ffos Las race suggested that connections hold this Irish point-to-point winner in high esteem and it will be disappointing if the mount of 5lb claimer Toby McCain-Mitchell is unable to concede the weight to his rivals in this modest handicap.
Recommendation: Rosscahill at 5/2 (PP)
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
You can follow Alan Kelly on Twitter for more racing insight.
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