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An eventful week, the most controversial being the falls of Constitution Hill and our nap The New Lion in Saturday’s Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle.
It’s a case of back to the drawing board for the Seven Barrows superstar; I for one would like to see the eight-year-old jump a fence, as the Blue Bresil gelding would need to have more respect for his obstacles, something which has been sadly missing on three of his last four starts.
I still feel that The New Lion will still prove the one to beat come next March’s Champion Hurdle.
- P/L for the week ending Sunday, 30 November: -£10.75
- P/L for the year 2025 to date: +£60.38
- P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
- P/L since 1st September 2022: +£546.37
Alan Kelly's Tips - Tuesday, 2 December
With the abandonment of Ffos Las, we head to the meeting at Southwell for Tuesday’s selections, the ground currently described as good to soft, soft in places for what is likely to be a cloudy but fairly dry day.
1:22pm Southwell - We Got Your Back (Nap)
This two miles handicap chase looks to concern Nick Gifford’s recent course and distance winner Livy’s Lad and WE GOT YOUR BACK (Nap) from the Laura Morgan stable, with preference being for the latter, who will be having his 16th outing over fences as opposed to the two of James Davies’ mount.
Making his debut over fences at Southwell just over two weeks ago, Livy’s Lad left behind four modest efforts over hurdles when trained by Tim Vaughan to run out a comfortable winner from favourite Catchim after taking up the running in the field of 6 with 3 to jump. A rise of 5lb for the Kayft Tara gelding seems fair enough, but I expect the greater experience of We Got Your Back to prove the deciding factor.
Another son of Kayf Tara, Brian Hughes’ mount will attempt to record his fourth win over fences, the most recent being a comfortable victory at Hexham in October with today’s rider in the saddle, the second and third horses home both going on to win recently. No match for Paul Robson’s improving Diamond Mix on that course the following month, We Got Your Back still finished clear of the other 8 runners and is fancied to get back to winning ways in this less competitive contest.
Recommendation: We Got Your Back (Nap) - 3/1 with bet365
2:52pm Southwell - Duel Au Soleil
Top weight I Spy A Diva stayed on to finish a never-nearer 8th of 18 in a Challenger Stayers’ Hurdle Qualifier at Cheltenham last month and should appreciate this step-up in trip. Tom Bellamy’s mount may be capable of conceding the weight to his six rivals, especially with the Bailey/Nicholls stable going so well (6 winners from their last 16 runners).
Olly Murphy’s Eaton Anne disappointed on this course recently when sent off a short priced favourite and is clearly better than Sean Bowen’s mount showed on his first outing for 212 days. However, I think both horses will have their work cut out to beat Ben Pauling’s lightly-raced DUEL AU SOLEIL, an easy winner on his handicap debut at Wetherby four weeks ago.
The five-year-old had shown promise in a couple of novice hurdles at Stratford earlier in the year before having a wind op in the autumn. A well-supported 10/3 favourite for that Go North Cab On Target Series Qualifier at Wetherby, the mount of 3lb claimer Callum Pritchard was ridden clear of his 9 rivals after taking up the running approaching the last.
A rise of 8lb looks far from harsh for the unexposed Ivanhowe gelding, who can follow up despite the form of the Wetherby race taking a few subsequent knocks.
Recommendation: Duel Au Soleil - 7/4 with bet365
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
You can follow Alan Kelly on Twitter for more racing insight.
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