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Another excellent week with 5 winning days out of 7 and 5 from 6 winning naps (one non-runner) resulting in a profit of +£16.83 over the seven days.
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Alan Kelly's Tips - Tuesday, 3 February
Ground on the soft side of good is expected for Wednesday’s two British jumps cards at Ludlow and Sedgefield. Over in Ireland, heavy going is guaranteed for Punchestown’s seven-race card.
2:07pm Sedgefield - Mersey Street (Nap)
A winner over hurdles at Fakenham last January, the Jonjo & A J O’Neill-trained Mersey Street looks sure to make a better chaser based on his four runs over the bigger obstacles to date. Following a promising chasing debut when third in a Worcester handicap last summer, the eight-year-old has been unlucky on both of his starts this season.
After just losing out to the heavily-supported Valence d’Aumont at Catterick over the Christmas period, the mount of Jonjo O’Neill Jr was enjoying himself, bowling along in the lead back at the North Yorkshire racecourse two weeks ago, until paying the price for his only mistake of the race when falling at the 8th fence.
Whether Mersey Street would have gone on to win that race is open to question, although my feeling was that the enthusiastic front-runner would have taken some pegging back. For a horse with so much early pace, today’s drop back in trip is unlikely to inconvenience the selection, who is surely better than his current mark of 84 would suggest.
The O’Neill horses have been running well over the last couple of weeks and Mersey Street can continue the stable’s good form at the main expense of Mark Walford’s Huit Reflets and Begin The Luck from the Daisy Hitchins stable.
Recommendation: Mersey Street (Nap)
2:42pm Sedgefield - Prized Jet
The two most interesting contenders for this very ‘winnable’ Class 5 handicap hurdle are the Jennie Candlish runners, PRIZED JET and Warrior Lion, a race in which any market support for either is likely to prove significant, although preference is for the former with stable jockey Sean Quinlan in the saddle.
The lightly-raced mare returns to hurdles for the first time since finishing 8th of 16 in a Roscommon maiden hurdle in September when trained in Ireland by 'Shark’ Hanlon. On her final start for Hanlon, Prized Jet held a big lead when falling at the 12th fence in a 2m 5f conditional jockeys’ handicap chase on this course the following month.
After joining Candlish shortly afterwards, the six-year-old returned to Sedgefield 18 days later over the same trip, making most of the running until weakening in between the last two fences to finish 6th of the 11 runners. With that first run for the stable under her belt and over today’s half a mile shorter trip, Prized Jet makes plenty of appeal on her return to hurdling.
Stablemate Warrior Lion, in the same ownership as Prized Jet, failed to win in seven attempts over hurdles when trained in Ireland, but the mount of 5lb claimer William Shanahan has been well-backed on all three visits to Wolverhampton’s all-weather track over the last few months, the gelding best effort coming with a staying-on second over 1m 4f in January. The betting is sure to prove a strong guide to Warrior Lion’s chance on his return to hurdling.
Recommendation: Prized Jet
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
You can follow Alan Kelly on Twitter for more racing insight.
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