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Only another 359 days to the Cheltenham Festival, last week’s four days at Prestbury Park once again proving memorable for both the right and wrong reasons. The playground spat between Nico de Boinville and amateur Declan Queally was the headline act in the embarrassment stakes, while the less said about a plethora of farcical starts the better.
The most memorable moments, however, were of the equine variety, in particular Gaelic Warrior’s silky-smooth Gold Cup victory, while on a personal level, Il Etait Temps produced the Champion Chase performance I was both expecting and hoping for in equal measures. With those memories fresh in the mind, 359 days seems a very long time to wait for the next instalment. Never mind, only a couple of weeks before the start of the turf flat season?
From a betting perspective, Wednesday was the undoubted highlight, with winners at 5/1, 15/2 and 11/1. It was a case of what might have been following the fall (stumble) of The Yellow Clay three-out in the BetMGM Gold Cup when coming to join eventual (easy) winner Jingko Blue. The possible result of my each-way accumulator on the four is a mystery that will forever remain a matter of conjecture. After going into Thursday with a profit of over £25, we managed to give most of it back, Cheltenham Festival week ending with a profit of +£8.70.
- P/L for the week ending Sunday, 15 March: +£8.70
- P/L for the year 2026 to date: +£78.87
- P/L for the year 2025: +£22.38
- P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
- P/L since 1st September 2022: +£579.53
Alan Kelly's Tips - Thursday, 19 March
The meetings at Newbury and Musselburgh provide Friday's jumps action alongside the all-weather cards at Lingfield and Wolverhampton, the latter’s evening fixture due to be shown on ITV Racing.
2:30pm Newbury - El Capitaine
Paul Nicholls’ top weight Captain Bellamy can be excused a poor performance on this course last month when the Black Sam Bellamy gelding failed to handle the heavy ground along with sustaining a wound to his right-hind leg during the race. Harry Cobden’s mount is better judged on his effort over today’s course and distance at Christmas when beaten a short-head by Nicky Henderson’s Calimystic, who has since followed up in a Challenger Staying Series Qualifier at Sandown.
Sean Bowen’s mount, He Knows Better, will find this tougher than when winning a Southwell handicap last time, while bottom weight Lylian has been beaten on all four starts for the Moore’s since joining the stable from France. That leaves the two chasing debutante’s, the Seven Barrows’ contender Fresh Kicks and Kayley Woollacott’s EL CAPITAINE.
The former should make the grade as a chaser in time, but I prefer the chances of Ben Jones’ mount, who has had plenty of experience in the point-to-point field. The son of Mahler won on his last seven starts for previous handler Joshua Newman over distances ranging from 2m 4f to 3m. While the eight-year-old is sure to find today’s opposition much tougher than he has been used to over fences, El Capitaine has done well over the smaller obstacles for connections, including when finishing 4th of 18 in a handicap at Cheltenham’s November meeting.
Recommendation: El Capitaine - 4/1 with bet365
3:00pm Newbury - Helnwein (Nap)
Dan Skelton’s Faivoir finished a well-beaten third behind easy winner Tutti Quanti in the valuable William Hill Hurdle over today’s course and distance last month, one place behind Wellington Arch who won at Uttoxeter on Saturday. Now an 11-year-old, the veteran is at his best when the mud is flying and may find conditions too quick today.
Cornish Storm and Across Earth have both been running well of late at a slightly lower grade, while Harry Derham’s Spirou is a fascinating contender on his first start since leaving France. The Cracksman gelding won a hurdle race in the provinces on his most recent start, but that was almost two and a half years ago. Paul O’Brien’s mount will surely come on for today’s run, unless the market speaks in his favour.
The Alan King stable have had 6 winners from their last 23 runners as I write and I think HELNWEIN (Nap) may be the one to beat in this Class 3 handicap in the hands of jockey Tom Bellamy, fresh from his festival victory aboard White Noise.
Two from 10 over hurdles, the Walk In The Park gelding has done little wrong in defeat over the last year or so, including finding only Champion Hurdle fourth Alexei too good in Cheltenham’s Greatwood Hurdle back in November (Faivoir 7 lengths back in third). With conditions to suit today, Helnwein can finally earn a well-deserved first victory since winning Sandown’s bet365 Novices’ Championship Final Handicap almost two years ago.
Recommendation: Helnwein (Nap) - 15/8 with bet365
3:22pm Musselburgh - Ravenscraig Castle (Each-Way)
A field of 15 runners for this wide-open Go North Sea Pigeon Hurdle Series Final in which cases can be made for the likes of top weight Star Of Guiting, Haarar, Light Fandango and Vampire Slayer. However, the each-way vote for this £40k final goes to the Iain Jardine-trained grey RAVENSCRAIG CASTLE (Each-Way).
The Nathaniel gelding has proved a bit frustrating over hurdles, with just the one victory in a conditional jockeys’ handicap hurdle at Perth last summer to his name from 16 starts over the smaller obstacles. The mount of talented 3lb claimer Charlie Maggs ran well to finish third behind fellow rival Star Of Guiting at Musselburgh’s New Year’s Day meeting and is set to meet Ewan Whillians’ charge on 16lb better terms today (including rider’s allowance).
Beaten less than five lengths over an inadequate trip of 7f on Newcastle’s all-weather surface last week, Ravenscraig Castle is more than capable of going close in the final of this series if putting his best foot forward.
Recommendation: Ravenscraig Castle (Each-Way) - 16/1 with bet365 (4 places)
5:16pm Newbury - Inch House
A fascinating hunters’ chase to end Newbury’s card, and while Fil d’Ariane, Java Point and Jeffery’s Cross all have recent winning form to their name, I expect the finish to concern a couple of new recruits to the genre, Paul Nicholls’ INCH HOUSE and Mister Coffey from the Nicky Henderson stable, both of which receive a handy 8lb from the three horses mentioned.
With a rating of 138, the Seven Barrows runner will be expected by many to make a winning debut in this discipline, the 11-year-old last seen finishing a well-beaten fifth in a veterans’ chase on this course last month. The mount of Mr Daniel Williams (claims 7lb) is 0 from 19 over fences however, preference being for the two years younger Inch House.
While Olive Nicholl’s mount has not progressed since finishing a promising 6th of 18 behind Gordon Elliott’s Three Card Brag at Cheltenham in October, there have been excuses for the gelding’s two subsequent defeats, and I expect the son of Ocovango to make his mark in this much easier grade.
Recommendation: Inch House - 9/2 with bet365
Grand National (Antepost) - Final Orders (Each-Way)
With less than a month to go before the 2026 renewal of Aintree’s Randox Grand National, a good time to try and pinpoint a bit of early value in the ante-post market for the world’s most famous steeplechase. At the 50/1 currently available with William Hill about Gavin Cromwell’s Final Orders, I think last week’s Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase winner is way overpriced for the extended 4m 2f test of jumping and stamina.
Currently standing at number 40 in the pecking-order and with a maximum permitted field of 34, the 10-year-old is not guaranteed his place, but with several doubtful runners higher up in the handicap I will be surprised if the Camelot gelding ends up as one of the reserves. A greater doubt revolves around possible ground conditions at the Merseyside racecourse on April 11th, as Final Orders needs decent going to produce his best form.
With current top weight I Am Maximus (winner in 2024) a certain runner barring accidents, Final Orders has a lovely racing weight of just 10st 5lb. Five of the first 12 winners of the race in the 21st century were 10-year-olds, and while Cheltenham's cross country chase has only been going since 2005, dual Grand National winner Tiger Roll won that unique three miles five and a half furlong contest in both of the years he was victorious at Aintree.
Of Final Orders’ seven successes over fences, five came over distances ranging from two to three miles, showing the kind of versatility needed to win a race requiring both pace and stamina in equal measures (also a winner over 1m 4f on the flat). If conditions are similar at Aintree to those of last week (good to soft), a reproduction of his comfortable victory over favourite Favori De Champdou would give the selection a much better chance of emulating Tiger Roll than his current odds would indicate.
Recommendation: Final Orders (Each-Way) - 50/1 with Unibet (4 places)
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
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