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Latest Profit & Loss Figures
Another excellent week, taking our profit for the last two weeks to +£45.74, the highlight being Tuesday’s 88/1 treble.
We had a total of 10 winners on the week, along with several placed selections. Saturday was our only losing day out of six, although the victories of Hawk Mountain and Give It To Me Oj kept the losses down to a minimum.
- P/L for the week ending Sunday, October 26th: +£19.91
- P/L for the year 2025 to date: +£42.57
- P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
- P/L since 1st September 2022: +£528.56
Alan Kelly's Tips - Saturday, 1 November
The ITV Racing cameras will be covering a mammoth 10 races on Saturday afternoon, along with three from the Breeders’ Cup card at Del Mar in the evening.
We have tips for all of the afternoon action, plus a selection for the Breeders’ Cup Turf at 9:41pm.
1:15pm Wetherby - Pep Talking (Each-Way)
The most likely winner of this extended 2m 3f handicap chase is the lightly-raced Lightning Flash from the Twiston-Davies stable, the five-year-old a winner on his chasing debut at Chepstow three weeks ago. The gelding has a tendency to jump out to his right however, so from a value perspective I would rather back the Billy Aprahamian-trained PEP TALKING (Each-Way).
Gavin Sheehan’s mount has won 5 of his 13 races over fences, all at Class 5 level, but gets plenty of weight from his 8 rivals and can make the frame at the very least.
Recommendation: Pep Talking (Each-Way) - 16/1 with Paddy Power (3 places)
1:30pm Ascot - Viroflay
There were few better hunter chasers around last season than the Paul Nicholls-trained VIROFLAY, last seen finishing second to J P McManus’s Its On The Line at the Punchestown Festival. Starting his chasing career under rules, the eight-year-old has been done no favours by the handicapper with an opening a mark of 136. But racing on ground which should suit, and with the 7lb claim of regular pilot Olive Nicholls, Viroflay can make a winning start with a victory in this novices’ limited handicap.
Recommendation: Viroflay - 4/1 with bet365
1:50pm Wetherby - Dysart Enos
Champion Hurdle winner Golden Ace makes little appeal in this 2m Listed hurdle at a very short price, while Dan Skelton’s Kateira is much better over a longer trip. In which case, it could be another case of the outsider of the three proving the value bet of the race at the 13/2 available with bet365, the horse in question being Fergal O’Brien’s DYSART ENOS.
The mare has yet to fulfil her earlier promise but has a good turn of foot, a trait which could prove decisive in what looks sure to be a tactical affair.
Recommendation: Dysart Enos - 13/2 with William Hill
2:05pm Ascot - Issar d’Airy (Each-Way)
A fabulous 2m 1f handicap chase, the field of 13 headed by the classy pair of Boothill and L’Eau du Sud. The latter heads the market and must have a good chance of making a winning reappearance off a mark of 155 in the hands of 3lb claimer Tristan Durrell. However, at the bottom of the handicap, I like the chances of the Gary & Josh Moore-trained ISSAR D'AIRY (Each-Way), especially with the 5lb claim of jockey Freddie Mitchell.
Second in this race 12 months ago, Issar d’Airy meets the winner Martator on 4lb better terms, and with a good record following a break, the Sinndar gelding is fancied to run a big race.
Recommendation: Issar d’Airy (Each-Way) - 11/1 with bet365 (4 places)
2:22pm Wetherby - Potters Charm
The least exposed of the five contenders for this 3m West Yorkshire Hurdle is the Nigel & Willie Twiston-Davies-trained POTTERS CHARM, who looked an exciting staying hurdle prospect when winning his first four races over the smaller obstacles last season.
Fifth in the Grade 1 Turners Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival on his most recent start, I think the mount of Sam Twiston-Davies will relish this step-up in trip, and with an excellent record following a break, can get his season off to a winning start following a wind op in September.
Recommendation: Potters Charm - 9/4 with William Hill
2:40pm Down Royal - Found A Fifty
A good renewal of this Grade 1 Champion Chase in which trainer Gordon Elliott is responsible for three of the seven runners. Stable jockey Jack Kennedy is on board FOUND A FIFTY, who steps-up to today’s trip of 3m for the first time following his Grade 2 victory over 2m 4f at Fairyhouse’s Easter meeting.
Unable to keep up with the pace when 5th in the Champion Chase at the Cheltenham Festival, the eight-year-old is definitely worth a try at today’s trip, leading to a possible visit to Kempton Park for the King George on Boxing Day for which the selection can be backed at 150/1 with bet365.
Recommendation: Found A Fifty - 11/2 with Coral
2:57pm Wetherby - The Real Whacker (Each-Way)
Nominated earlier in the week in the ante-post mark at 12/1 (3 places), last year’s winner THE REAL WHACKER (Each-Way) is fancied to run another big race in what is probably the horse’s best chance of winning a Grade 2 race this season.
Recommendation: The Real Whacker (Each-Way) - 12/1 with bet365 (ante-post)
3:10pm Ascot - Dance And Glance (Each-Way)
Many of the 12 contenders for this £60k handicap hurdle can be fancied, in particular Joe Tizzard’s unexposed Alexei, last seen finishing second in the Welsh Champion Hurdle three weeks ago. The Anthony Honeyball stable had winners at Cheltenham and Aintree over the weekend before landing a double at Newton Abbot on Wednesday. The bang-in-form trainer is responsible for the lightly-raced DANCE AND GLANCE (Each-Way) and Rex Dingle’s mount gets the vote in an open race.
A respectable fifth when sent off favourite for Haydock’s Swinton Hurdle back in March, the Passing Glance gelding will strip fitter for his run at Newton Abbot two weeks ago and looks favourably treated off a mark of 117.
Recommendation: Dance And Glance (Each-Way) - 7/1 with bet365 (4 places)
3:30pm Wetherby - Pure Gold
Lisa Harrison’s five-year-old mare PURE GOLD has been in irresistible form over the last few months, winning races at Uttoxeter (Class 5), Perth (Class 4) and Hexham (Class 3). Her one defeat among those three victories came when runner-up to Patrick Neville’s hugely promising The Last Cloud at Perth in September.
Despite now running off a career-high mark of 110, Peter Kavanagh’s mount is fancied to continue her good form in receipt of weight from all but one of her rivals.
Recommendation: Pure Gold - 11/2 with bet365
3:45pm Ascot - The Changing Man (Nap)
There were few more consistent chasers last season than Joe Tizzard’s THE CHANGING MAN (Nap). Runner-up in valuable handicaps at Newcastle, Ascot, Doncaster and the Cheltenham Festival, the son of Walk In The Park managed to win only one of his 7 starts, that coming with a 24 length victory in the Grade 2 Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase over today’s course and distance back in February.
I don’t think this £100k Sodexo Gold Cup is as competitive as the numbers would suggest and expect Brendan Powell’s mount to record a well-earned success in this valuable contest.
Recommendation: The Changing Man (Nap) - 7/2 with Betfred
9:41pm Del Mar - Goliath (Each-Way)
Arc runner-up Minnie Hawk will be a warm order to take this Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf, a race Aidan O’Brien and Ballydoyle have won a record 7 times. The filly has had a hard season however, and despite her strong claims I prefer to side with Francis-Henri Graffard's GOLIATH (Each-Way).
Last year’s impressive King George winner (beat subsequent Arc winner Bluestocking and fellow rival Rebel’s Romance) looks to be hitting top form at just the right time following his Group 1 victory over Dubai Honour at Baden-Baden in September.
Recommendation: Goliath (Each-Way) - 15/2 with bet365 (4 places)
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
You can follow Alan Kelly on Twitter for more racing insight.
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