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Alan Kelly's Tips - Friday, 21 August
A fascinating Coolmore City Of Troy Nunthorpe Stakes is the feature race on the third day of York’s Ebor meeting, the betting for this speed test on the Knavesmire headed by US challenger Bacio, an impressive winner on his first start in this country at Royal Ascot.
Hamilton Park stages an excellent card in the evening, the feature race being the Lanark Silver Bell (Heritage Handicap) at 6:15pm.
2:25pm York - Amiloc
Hopefully, with regular partner Rossa Ryan back in the saddle, Ralph Beckett’s AMILOC will make it further than when unseating jockey Hector Crouch after leaving the stalls in the Goodwood Cup last month. The Postponed gelding had previously finished a creditable sixth in a quality Hardwick Stakes at Royal Ascot over a trip possibly on the sharp side for last season’s Irish St Leger runner-up.
This Group 2 contest looks a perfect opportunity for Amiloc to open his account for the season, especially in receipt of 3lb from main market rival Caballo De Mar. You can put a line through the latter’s tailed-off effort in the Ascot Gold Cup last time as George Scott’s charge finished the race showing signs of heat stress after doing far too much up front in an effort to match strides with the recently retired Trawlerman.
Irish challenger Carmers didn’t get home in Ascot’s Gold Cup when weakening to finish 6th and has every chance of making the frame over today’s more suitable trip.
Recommendation: Amiloc - 10/3 with Paddy Power
3:35pm York - Bacio (Nap)
Having tipped Wesley Ward’s US raider BACIO (Nap) at 14/1 (was sent off the 3/1 favourite) for Royal Ascot’s Palace Of Holyroodhouse (Handicap) at the royal meeting two months ago, the result was never in much doubt from an early stage as the mount of Juan J Hernandez (hopefully, he remembers all of his saddle this time) led his 26 rivals a merry dance, crossing the line unextended by almost 4 lengths.
What I liked most about the performance was the fact that the unexposed three-year-old was as strong at the finish as he was at the halfway stage of that 5f contest. While Bacio had the best of the draw at the Berkshire racecourse (31 of 31), in a year where the quality of top class sprinters is moderate to say the least, I think Bacio has the potential to blow this Nunthorpe field away.
Well found in the market at odds of around 3/1, those looking for an each-way alternative to the favourite could do worse than Ballydoyle challenger Mission Central, who will appreciate the drop back to the minimum trip after finishing 7th in the July Cup last time, Ryan Moore’s mount previously successful in Royal Ascot’s King Charles III Stakes.
Recommendation: Bacio (Nap) - 7/2 with Coral
4:10pm York - French Duke (Each-Way)
Wathnan Racing enjoyed an excellent Glorious Goodwood, and I think they are unlikely to go home empty handed on the third day of York’s Ebor Festival, as apart from having decent chances with runners in most of today’s races, I fancy their Hamad Al Jehani-trained FRENCH DUKE (Each-Way) to go close in this £120k mile and a half contest.
Things haven’t gone to plan for James Doyle’s mount since his victory at Meydan in January, the Sea The Stars gelding given far too much to do when finishing 11th in the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes at Royal Ascot, while the five-year-old did far too much in front when weakening to finish 6th behind the progressive Al Azd on that course 5 weeks later.
A respectable 6th on Southwell’s all-weather surface two weeks ago, French Duke has dropped to his last winning mark, and in what looks to be a below-par renewal of this Heritage Handicap, a big run is expected.
Recommendation: French Duke (Each-Way) - 7/1 with William Hill (5 places)
5:20pm York - Silver Lake
Another excellent chance for Wathnan Racing, on this occasion with the progressive filly SILVER LAKE, the mount of Saffie Osborne in York’s £100k finale. This will be just the 6th career start for the grey daughter of Night Of Thunder, who has improved with each run to date, most recently when justifying strong support in a 1m 2f fillies’ handicap on the final day of Glorious Goodwood.
While William Haggas’s charge has been raised 9lb for that comfortable success, I still think Silver Lake is capable of defying today’s revised mark of 86 before the handicapper has her measure. Ralph Beckett’s Food For Thought, runner-up to Silver Lake at Salisbury last month, and now 9lb better off with the selection, is the other one to consider.
Recommendation: Silver Lake - 3/1 with Paddy Power
6:15pm Hamilton - Salamanca City
This £103k Lanark Silver Bell (Heritage Handicap) looks a good bit of placing by Newmarket trainer James Fanshawe for his five-year-old mare SALAMANCA CITY, who will attempt to make it 4 wins from 5 starts this season, that one defeat coming over a 2f shorter trip at Lingfield back in May.
The daughter of Phoenix Of Spain is in the form of her life at the moment and more than capable of defying a career-high mark of 89 in tonight’s feature race. After just scraping home at Goodwood on her penultimate start, Daniel Muscutt’s mount produced a career-best at Ripon last month in beating course specialist and fellow rival Spioradalta by a comfortable length and a half.
For the prize money on offer, this is not the strongest of Silver Bells, the main danger possibly coming in the shape of Oli Rix’s Noble Horizon, last seen finishing an excellent second in Goodwood’s Chesterfield Cup off a 3lb lower mark.
Recommendation: Salamanca City - 11/2 with bet365
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Free Bets in 2008.
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