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Latest Profit & Loss Figures
With very little turf racing taking place, we ended the week with a small profit of +£1.61, although three of our four naps obliged at odds of 11/4, 6/1, and 3/1 (25p R4).
- P/L for the week ending Sunday, 11 January: +£1.61
- P/L for the year 2026 to date: -£7.99
- P/L for the year 2025: +£22.38
- P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
- P/L since 1st September 2022: +£508.37
Alan Kelly's Tips - Tuesday, 13 January
Soft conditions are expected for Ayr’s seven-race card on Tuesday afternoon, the first race due to get underway at 12:48pm.
1:18pm Ayr - Dream Shadow (Nap)
The winner of handicaps at Ffos Las and Southwell this season, Max Comley’s Just Her Type faces a difficult task in attempting to concede weight to her six rivals in this EBF Mares’ Qualifier. Unless the mount of 5lb claimer Tom Broughton proves to be much better than her current mark of 113 would suggest, this looks to be a straight match between Anthony Honeyball’s Park Princess (entered at Fontwell on Sunday) and DREAM SHADOW (Nap) from the Fergal O’Brien stable, with slight preference for the latter.
Park Princess came within a nose of winning a Listed mares’ hurdle at Haydock Park last month, the mount of Sam Twiston-Davies just failing to get back up against Dan Skelton’s 126-rated Supreme Malinas with some decent mares behind. Despite being rated 8lb higher than main rival Dream Shadow, the latter looks an exciting prospect for O’Brien and I expect Jonathan Burke’s mount to finish the season on a much higher mark than her current 118.
The seven-year-old has some excellent Bumper form to her name, including when finding only Alan King’s Charisma Cat too good in a Listed EBF Mares National Hunt Flat Race at Sandown in March, seven lengths ahead of Honeyball’s Easy Love. After finishing a close second to an exciting horse of Jamie Snowden’s in La Conquiere (rated 128) on her debut over hurdles at Uttoxeter in October, Dream Shadow opened her account with a comfortable victory at Warwick the following month.
While having a few pounds to find with Park Princess on ratings, Fergal O’Brien’s charge is fancied to take this qualifier before stepping-up in class.
Recommendation: Dream Shadow (Nap) - 1/2 with bet365
1:48pm Ayr - Kelvin Forlonge
Cian Collins’ Irish raider Gather Yourself is an interesting contender for this Go North Brindisi Breeze Qualifier with champion jockey Sean Bowen booked to partner the six-year-old gelding. Yet to open his account in nine starts over hurdles, Gather Yourself is worth noting for any market support.
Nick Alexander’s Better Be Definite is sure to improve for his November run at Kelso, the gelding’s first for 503 days, while Sandy Thomson’s Holly Bird could improve for today’s significant step-up in distance. However, heading the weights for this 10-runner staying handicap is the Russell/Scudamore-trained KELVIN FORLONGE, a course and distance winner on his handicap debut at the Scottish racecourse last month.
An opening mark of 99 proved on the lenient side for Patrick Wadge’s mount, who, after cruising into the lead 2 out, and despite a mistake at the final hurdle, proved far too good for his 9 rivals, headed by the reopposing Shoeshine Boy. Considering the ease of that victory, and with further improvement almost guaranteed, a rise of just 6lb seems fair to say the least. While the stable could be in better form, Kelvin Forlonge is expected to follow-up with conditions to suit.
Recommendation: Kelvin Forlonge - 7/4 with bet365
2:48pm Ayr - Maid Of Houxty (Each-Way)
A pretty modest handicap chase ran over three miles, the field of 9 headed by Chris Kellett’s I See The Sea, winner of a poor conditional jockey’s handicap at Catterick in November before finishing a well-beaten 7th on that course just after Christmas. Nicky Richards’ Big Zouk is of some interest on his chasing debut, while a strong case could be made for the Russel/Scudamore runner Torosay based on a decent effort when runner-up here two months ago.
While no prices are available as of Sunday afternoon, I expect the old man of the party, Donald Whillans’ MAID OF HOUXTY (Each-Way), to open up at decent odds, the 11-year-old having been pulled-up on both of her starts this season. A winner over a trip just short of three miles at Newcastle in March of 2023 when rated 9lb higher, the mount of Craig Nicol wasn’t seen again until reappearing over an inadequate 2m 4f at Carlisle 968 days later.
Not surprisingly, the mare failed to get competitive following such a long absence, after which she was always struggling following a bad mistake at the second fence on that course 20 days later. With 3 winners from their last 6 runners as I write, the Whillians’ stable is clearly in good heart at the moment and at what I expect to be a decent price, Made Of Houxty is capable of outrunning her odds.
Recommendation: Maid Of Houxty (Each-Way) - 50/1 with bet365 (3 places)
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
You can follow Alan Kelly on Twitter for more racing insight.
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