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Despite an excellent day on Wednesday, including a 6/1 winning nap, it was a week of hard lines and bad luck, starting with the fall of our 13/8 nap Grain Trade at Market Rasen on Tuesday, the horse stumbling after jumping the last with the race won.
The most frustrating, however, was the performance of 17/2 chance All In You in Saturday's Scottish Champion Hurdle, James Bowen's mount still cruising behind leader Tutti Quanti, only to be almost brought down by the favourite at the second last. A bit of good fortune in the week ahead would be very welcome.
- P/L for the week ending Sunday, 19 April: -£8.57
- P/L for the year 2026 to date: +£48.78
- P/L for the year 2025: +£22.38
- P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
- P/L since 1st September 2022: +£549.44
Alan Kelly's Tips - Monday, 20 April
Monday's turf racing in Britain comes from the cards at Redcar on the Flat (good to firm, good in places) and Kelso over jumps (good, good to soft in places).
3:30pm Kelso - Wolfburg (Nap)
Despite now racing off a 19lb higher mark since winning on his second start over fences at Wetherby on Boxing Day, I expect Sandy Thomson’s lightly-raced WOLFBURG (Nap) to prove up to the task in a race where question marks hang over most of the gelding’s six rivals.
Now rated 110, Patrick Wadge’s mount will still be receiving between 8lb and 22lb from the rest of the field, although top weight Cadell will have the 5lb claim of rider Jack Power. Wolfburg’s only disappointing effort since that initial victory came when finishing third of 12 at Catterick in January, the trip of 3m 1f on soft ground probably stretching the seven-year-old’s stamina.
Dropped back down to 2m 4f at Carlisle last month, the selection ran out an easy 9 length winner, despite a far from fluent round of jumping. On today’s good ground, this extra three furlongs should not be a problem for the son of Sageburg, who may have most to fear from Nick Kent’s Erne River and Dare To Shout from the Ann Hamilton stable.
Recommendation: Wolfburg (Nap)
3:42pm Redcar - Jolly Roger
Wathnan Racing’s Skipper is the most interesting of the 9 contenders for this Class 3 one mile handicap, the Hamad Al Jehani-trained five-year-old having his first start for the Newmarket handler since winning one of his four races in France, the Calyx gelding previously successful on Chelmsford’s all-weather surface when in the care of Tom Clover as a three-year-old.
The market will be the best guide to the chances of James Doyle’s mount, while Kevin Ryan's Cadarn is 2 from 2 on the course and sure to improve for his first start for the stable when unplaced at Doncaster on the first day of the season.
However, returning to this country following several decent efforts in defeat in the UAE, I think JOLLY ROGER is the one to beat for the Simon & Ed Crisford team. While only 10th in a handicap at last year’s Dante meeting at York, the Dark Angel gelding was beaten less than four lengths after suffering interference inside the final two furlongs.
Harry Davies’ mount is more than capable of winning a race of this nature off a mark of 89, especially for a stable in good form at the moment and with fitness guaranteed.
Recommendation: Jolly Roger
4:00pm Kelso - Big Love
Several of the 11 runners for this modest Class 5 contest will be making their handicap debuts, the most interesting being the ex Charlie Johnston-trained Struth, the winner of 2 of his 24 starts on the Flat and now in the care of the Russell/Scudamore stable.
The betting is likely to prove a good guide to the chances of Derek Fox’s mount, a remark which also applies to The Best Way from the bang-in-form Nicky Richards stable, who will be having his first outing since winning a Newcastle handicap 14 months ago.
On just his second start for Andrew Hamilton since leaving trainer Ben Brookhouse, Gozo is also worth a check in the market, the six-year-old a winner on his hurdling debut at Plumpton over two years ago and far from disgraced on the Flat around this time last year. The horse I am most interested in, however, is the Michael & David Easterby-trained bottom weight BIG LOVE.
Sent off at big prices for his first four starts over hurdles, Jamie Hamilton’s mount was quietly fancied on his handicap debut at Wetherby last month, the Postponed gelding staying-on nicely to finish a never-nearer fourth of the 11 runners. Dropped 2lb to a mark of 87, Big Love makes plenty of appeal off a featherweight of just 10st 3lb.
Recommendation: Big Love
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
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