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A disappointing week ending Sunday, 22 March, or should I say a disappointing Saturday, as we were just in front going into the weekend. Three seconds at odds of 11/4, 15/2 and 10/1 proved frustrating, in particular the head defeat of Knickerbockerglory at Bangor. I also thought our 22/1 selection Wasthatok was still going well when failing to avoid the fall of The Navigator at Kelso.
- P/L for the week ending Sunday, 22 March: -£6.77
- P/L for the year 2026 to date: +£72.10
- P/L for the year 2025: +£22.38
- P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
- P/L since 1st September 2022: +£572.76
Alan Kelly's Tips - Monday, 23 March
Monday afternoon’s horse racing action comes from the jumps cards at Kempton Park and Wincanton, the ground at both courses currently described as good, with watering taking place.
4:05pm Kempton - Gustavian (Nap)
Only five runners for this three mile handicap chase, but a tight little handicap with only a few pounds covering all but one of the contenders, the one exception being the Gary & Josh Moore-trained Lumi Plugin. Caoilin Quinn’s mount will be having just his fifth start over fences and, at the age of 7, is open to more improvement.
Top weight on 12st is Anthony Honeyball’s GUSTAVIAN (Nap), who will find this easier than when finishing a creditable 4th of 13 behind Lookaway in last month’s Ladbrokes Trophy (Premier Handicap) over today’s course and distance. Running off the same mark of 135 today, Rex Dingle’s mount should prove hard to beat if in the same kind of form.
Following wind surgery during the summer, Gustavian made a winning start to the new campaign with a wide-margin victory in Wincanton’s Badger Beers Chase, before finishing a close fourth in the Unibet Stayers’ Veterans’ Chase Final in January, a race in which fellow rival Annsam took a heavy fall at the 12th fence when taking the field along. If fully recovered from that out of character mishap, Sean Bowen’s mount can give Gustavian most to do.
Recommendation: Gustavian (Nap)
4:40pm Kempton - Time Interval (Each-Way)
The nearest we came to a winner on Saturday was the narrow defeat of Knickerbockerglory at Bangor, our 15/2 selection just thwarted courtesy of an inspired ride by jockey Charlie Maggs aboard the 2/1 favourite Static.
The talented claimer owes us one and is fancied to take this conditional jockeys’ handicap on the David Dennis-trained TIME INTERVAL (Each-Way). The eight-year-old has not been seen at his best of late, failing to see out his races due to ground softer than ideal, along with taking a keen hold in many of his races.
Today's two mile trip on good ground should bring out the best in the gelding, who has dropped to a mark 4lb lower than when winning under similar conditions at Warwick last May. The addition of cheekpieces for the first time may also help the son of Adaay to settle better.
The Jim & Suzi Best-trained Diyaken is the most interesting of Time Interval's rivals, the eight-year-old not seen since finishing second at Ascot on his only start for previous handler Gary Moore at Ascot nearly three and a half years ago. Any market confidence in Dylan Johnston’s mount should be noted.
Recommendation: Time Interval (Each-Way)
4:57pm Wincanton - Moveit Like Minnie
If first-time cheekpieces work for the Jonjo & AJ O’Neill-trained Crebilly, the nine-year-old is certainly handicapped to win this two and a half mile contest, the JP McManus-owned Soldier Of Fortune gelding rated 11lb higher over fences and a winner over hurdles at Sandown almost two years ago off a 4lb higher mark.
Crebilly has proved a big disappointment since beating all bar Shakem Up’arry in the Plate at the 2024 Cheltenham Festival however, but if the market speaks in his favour I will have a saver on Jonjo O’Neill Jr’s mount, the vote going to MOVEIT LIKE MINNIE for the Twiston-Davies team.
While the nine-year-old is now on a losing run of 14 since winning off a 2lb higher mark at Stratford in September 2024, the gelding ran his best race for some time when staying on to finish fourth in a much better race at Ascot last month, since when Sam Twiston-Davies’ mount has been dropped another pound.
Recommendation: Moveit Like Minnie
Grand National (Antepost) - Final Orders (Each-Way)
With less than a month to go before the 2026 renewal of Aintree’s Randox Grand National, a good time to try and pinpoint a bit of early value in the ante-post market for the world’s most famous steeplechase. At the 50/1 currently available with William Hill about Gavin Cromwell’s Final Orders, I think last week’s Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase winner is way overpriced for the extended 4m 2f test of jumping and stamina.
Currently standing at number 40 in the pecking-order and with a maximum permitted field of 34, the 10-year-old is not guaranteed his place, but with several doubtful runners higher up in the handicap I will be surprised if the Camelot gelding ends up as one of the reserves. A greater doubt revolves around possible ground conditions at the Merseyside racecourse on April 11th, as Final Orders needs decent going to produce his best form.
With current top weight I Am Maximus (winner in 2024) a certain runner barring accidents, Final Orders has a lovely racing weight of just 10st 5lb. Five of the first 12 winners of the race in the 21st century were 10-year-olds, and while Cheltenham's cross country chase has only been going since 2005, dual Grand National winner Tiger Roll won that unique three miles five and a half furlong contest in both of the years he was victorious at Aintree.
Of Final Orders’ seven successes over fences, five came over distances ranging from two to three miles, showing the kind of versatility needed to win a race requiring both pace and stamina in equal measures (also a winner over 1m 4f on the flat). If conditions are similar at Aintree to those of last week (good to soft), a reproduction of his comfortable victory over favourite Favori De Champdou would give the selection a much better chance of emulating Tiger Roll than his current odds would indicate.
Recommendation: Final Orders (Each-Way) - 50/1 with Unibet (4 places)
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
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