Alan Kelly We’ve got daily tips from our resident horse racing expert, Alan Kelly.
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The highlight of an otherwise disappointing week was the victory of our 4/1 Nap of the Day, East India Dock, in Friday’s Chester Cup. The majority of our Saturday ITV Racing Tips were well supported, but apart from Puppet Master’s Lingfield Derby Trial win and a couple of placed selections at double-figure odds, it was a poor conclusion to the week.
- P/L for the w/e Sunday, May 11th: -£10.42
- P/L for the year 2025 to date: -£23.48
- P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
- P/L since 1st September 2022: +£462.51
Alan Kelly’s Horse Racing Tips
With the current warm spell set to continue for the rest of the week at least, York’s Dante meeting looks sure to take place on good to firm ground.
The feature races on Wednesday are the Group 2 1895 Duke Of York Clipper Stakes along with the Group 3 Tattersalls Musidora Stakes, a significant Oaks Trial, Snowfall in 2021 and Soul Sister in 2023 both going on to complete the double.
Nap of the Day - The Reverend (2:10pm York)
William Haggas’s son of Lope De Vega can book his ticket for the Ebor in three months time with a victory in the opening race at York’s Dante meeting.
2:10pm York - The Reverend (Nap)
If there is a horse in this Sky Bet Race To The Ebor Jorvik Handicap capable of becoming a leading fancy for the main event in three months' time, it is likely to be the William Haggas-trained THE REVEREND (Nap). After winning impressively on his handicap debut at Ascot in September, the Lope De Vega gelding looked an exciting prospect for the future.
Despite failing to add to that victory at the Berkshire track on his other two outings of the season, at Haydock and Doncaster, Tom Marquand’s mount was unsuited by the drop back to 1m 2f on his most recent start and is much better than that run on Town Moor would indicate. This will be the fastest ground The Reverend has raced on to date (wins came on soft and heavy) although there is nothing in the four-year-old’s pedigree to suggest he needs those conditions to produce his best.
The least exposed of the 12 contenders is Karl Burke’s Almosh’her, whose three runs to date all came on the all-weather. A narrow winner at Kempton in March, Clifford Lee’s mount is best watched on his first start since leaving trainer Charlie Fellowes just last week. David O’Meara’s consistent Stressfree is the other one to consider, while best of those at a double-figure price is Kevin Ryan’s dual course winner Marhaba The Champ.
Recommendation: The Reverend (Nap) - 4/1 with bet365
2:42pm York - Mister Sox (Each-Way)
A typically wide-open sprint handicap on the Knavesmire in which it is impossible to rule out any of the 16 runners. Having tipped Richard Spencer’s Two Tribes for a handicap at Newmarket on Betfred 2000 Guineas day, it was disappointing to see the four-year-old beaten two short heads in third place. Jockey Ryan Moore takes over in the saddle from Silvestre de Souza this afternoon, and while Two Tribes is one of the most likely winners, current odds of 9/2 offer little in the way of value.
On the other hand, the 25/1 available with Paddy Power about the Tim Easterby-trained MISTER SOX (Each-Way) looks far too big for a horse who is now on a four-timer following wins at Catterick, Pontefract and Ripon during the last four or five weeks.
While the Pivotal gelding has only won in lower grade races, Mister Sox has never been in better form and the five-year-old’s 5lb penalty for last week’s Ripon victory is negated by the claim of today’s pilot Tom Kiely-Marshall. The stable’s runners are always to be respected at this meeting and I expect Mister Sox to outrun his current odds by some way.
Recommendation: Mister Sox (Each-Way) - 25/1 with Paddy Power (5 places)
3:13pm York - Rage Of Bamby (Each-Way)
Karl Burke holds a strong hand in this Group 2 sprint, the trainer responsible for three of the eight runners. If the race had been run on an artificial surface it would have been easy to make a strong case out for the stable’s Night Raider. However, Oisin Murphy’s mount has yet to make three in three attempts on turf. Burke’s Elite Status and the Kevin Ryan-trained Inisherin are both run in the Sheikh Mohammed Obaid colours, the latter the highest rated runner in the field courtesy of his victory in Royal Ascot’s Group 1 Commonwealth Cup last June. While that is the best form on offer by some way, Ryan Moore’s mount ended last season with a couple of below-par efforts.
At his best, Inisherin is almost certainly the one to beat, but at a big price I think Eve Johnson Houghton’s RAGE OF BAMBY (Each-Way) is capable of making the frame at the very least. While Charles Bishop’s mount has a few pounds to find with most of her rivals, the daughter of Saxon Warrior has a good record on the Knavesmire, including when winning the Sky Bet Dash under a big weight on the course last summer.
Recommendation: Rage Of Bamby (Each-Way) - 25/1 with bet365 (3 places)
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
You can follow Alan Kelly on Twitter for more racing insight.
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