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An eventful week, the most controversial being the falls of Constitution Hill and our nap The New Lion in Saturday’s Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle.
It’s a case of back to the drawing board for the Seven Barrows superstar; I for one would like to see the eight-year-old jump a fence, as the Blue Bresil gelding would need to have more respect for his obstacles, something which has been sadly missing on three of his last four starts.
I still feel that The New Lion will still prove the one to beat come next March’s Champion Hurdle.
- P/L for the week ending Sunday, 30 November: -£10.75
- P/L for the year 2025 to date: +£60.38
- P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
- P/L since 1st September 2022: +£546.37
Alan Kelly's Tips - Wednesday, 3 December
Along with the jumps meetings at Haydock Park and Ludlow, there is also all-weather action in Britain from Lingfield and Kempton Park.
The latter’s evening card features the Unibet London Stayers’ Series Final at 7:10pm.
1:50pm Ludlow - Walkadina (Nap)
Fergal O’Brien’s hat-trick seeking Kingston Sunflower heads the weights for this mares’ handicap hurdle, the mount of 5lb claimer Fern O’Brien unbeaten on both of her starts over hurdles since leaving the Ralph Smith stable during the summer. The eight-year-old now runs off a mark 11lb higher than when winning the first of those two races over today’s course and distance two months ago.
While Kingston Sunflower is respected, along with Ben Clarke’s Game Colours, third on her reappearance at Fontwell last month as well as occupying the same position in the Herring Queen Series Final at Kelso back in March, it is the horse who finished one place behind Game Colours at the Borders racecourse who makes most appeal, the David Pipe-trained WALKADINA (Nap).
Jack Tudor's mount, the impressive winner of a mares’ maiden hurdle at Uttoxeter last November before running with credit on her four subsequent starts of the season, was strongly fancied for a conditional jockey’s handicap at Cheltenham last month, making headway from the rear to dispute the lead 2 out before weakening into 5th pace on the run-in.
Having previously raced exclusively over two miles, that trip of 2m 5f may have stretched the stamina of the six-year-old, who will be much better suited by the distance of this Class 2 contest.
Recommendation: Walkadina (Nap) - 6/4 with bet365
3:12pm Haydock - Jaipaletemps
Olly Murphy’s Dangerous Touch had a tendency to jump out to his right when fourth on his chasing debut at Lingfield last month and may be better on a right-handed track, although Sean Bowen’s mount ran straight enough when winning over hurdles at Ffos Las back in January.
Warren Greatrex’ He Knows Better makes his chasing debut following an absence of 18 months and is likely to improve for the run, a remark which does not apply to the David Pipe-trained JAIPALETEMPS, winner of both of his starts at Ffos Las last month. Ridden on both of those occasions by 10lb claimer Rian Corcoran, who is back in the saddle this afternoon, negating somewhat the gelding’s 13lb rise in the ratings.
Jaipaletemps won three races in France before crossing the channel at the beginning of the year, and now that the six-year-old has hit top form following a slow start for Pipe, is fancied to land the hat-trick at the expense of main rival Fat Harry from the bang-in-form Parkingson/Smith stable.
Danny McMenamin’s mount is also on a hat-trick following wins over fences at Sedgefield and Newcastle last month. While the eight-year-old’s future clearly lies over the bigger obstacles, slight preference on this occasion is with the more experienced Pond House contender. Irish challenger Hitthehayson is the other one to consider in a fascinating finale at the Merseyside track.
Recommendation: Jaipaletemps - 10/3 with bet365
7:10pm Kempton - Duke Of Oxford (Each-Way)
The first three horses home in last year’s Unibet London Stayers’ Series Final, DUKE OF OXFORD (Each-Way), Sheradann and Zoran, take each other on again and I think Michael Bell’s charge has a great chance of coming out on top for a second time.
Since stepping up to today’s trip of two miles, Duke Of Oxford’s form on Kempton Park’s all-weather surface reads 1-1-3-1-1-5, the latter effort coming following a break of four months, the five-year-old beaten just three lengths after failing to make any impression on fellow rivals Sheradann and Enemy inside the final furlong.
The run was clearly a prep for today’s valuable final, Hector Crouch’s mount’s previously set some stiff tests this season in races such as the Chester Cup and Northumberland Plate. Six from 18 on an artificial surface and running off the same mark as that of 12 months ago, I expect another big effort from the Kingman gelding.
Further down the weights, Gary & Josh Moore’s Poncho, winner on the flat at Goodwood and over hurdles at Plumpton on his last two starts, could go well for jockey Tyler Heard off a mark of just 71.
Recommendation: Duke Of Oxford (Each-Way) - 9/2 with William Hill (3 places)
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
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