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Four winning days out of six and a healthy profit of +£14.26 on the week.
Trial’s Day at Cheltenham on Saturday provided several clues for the festival in just over six weeks' time, although the day felt very flat following the injury sustained by Sir Gino in the Unibet Hurdle.
The highlight of the week ahead is Leopardstown’s Dublin Racing Festival which features a total of six Grade 1 races over the two days.
- P/L for the week ending Sunday, 25 January: +£14.26
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- P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
- P/L since 1st September 2022: +£507.21
Alan Kelly's Tips - Friday, 30 January
Hopefully, along with the televised card at Musselburgh, Sandown’s Virgin Bet Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase meeting and the opening day of Leopardstown’s Dublin Racing Festival manage to survive the current wet spell.
Should that prove to be the case, ITV Racing cameras will be covering a mammoth 11 races in total, 6 from Sandown, 3 from Musselburgh and 2 from Leopardstown.
12:55pm Sandown - Bollin Thou
After easily winning three Class 5 handicaps, this is a big step-up in company for Nick Scholfield’s BOLLIN THOU, especially racing off a mark 27lb higher than when recording the first of those three victories at Uttoxeter on the final day of last year.
However, with jockey Harry Cobden booked to partner the unexposed eight-year-old for the first time, and in receipt of weight from his 5 rivals, I expect Bollin Thou’s winning run to continue, at least for the time being. Today’s testing conditions should hold no fear for the selection, who may have most to fear from Joe Tizzard’s handicap debutante Tennessee Tango.
Recommendation: Bollin Thou - 7/4 with BetVictor
1:10pm Musselburgh - Made U Blush
In the same ownership but with different trainers, the Dan Skelton-trained MADE U BLUSH and Secret Force, one of two runners for Irish handler Gavin Cromwell, will attempt to enhance their Triumph Hurdle prospects with a victory in this Listed Trial.
The latter was let down by some poor jumping at Cheltenham last time but had previously impressed when winning on his hurdling debut at Punchestown. Despite only winning a maiden hurdle at Doncaster just after Christmas, slight preference is for Tristan Durrell’s mount, who gets the vote for a trainer/jockey combination who can do little wrong at the moment and in receipt of the 7lb fillies’allowance.
Recommendation: Made U Blush - 8/1 with Paddy Power
1:25pm Sandown - El Granjero
A novices’ limited handicap chase which makes only minor appeal as a betting medium, the tentative vote going to Clive Boultbee-Brook’s top weight EL GRANJERO and jockey Richard Patrick. The winner of two soft-ground hurdle races at Hereford back in 2024, El Granjero has performed with credit on all three starts over fences to date and in today’s field of 7 is the one with fewer questions to answer.
Recommendation: El Granjero - 4/1 with bet365
1:43pm Musselburgh - Afadil
This will be the first run in a handicap for Dan Skelton's classy mare Kateira since she won a valuable Premier Handicap on Grand National Day at Aintree two years ago. While Tristan Durrell’s mount is used to racing over much further than this extended 1m 7f, the nine-year-old is capable of a big run if bringing her A-game to the table.
However, in receipt of 33lb (including the 7lb allowance of rider Freddie Keighley), the Paul Nicholls-trained AFADIL, winner of the race in 2024, is fancied to go one better than when finishing a length second to fellow rival Welsh Charger in this Class 2 contest 12 months ago.
A mistake at the final hurdle didn’t help his chances when fourth over today’s course and distance on New Year’s Day. The seven-year-old is 2 from 5 on the course, and off a career-low mark of 119, another bold effort looks guaranteed.
Recommendation: Afadil - 7/2 with bet365
2:02pm Sandown - Rath Gaul Hill (Each-Way)
A race in which it is hard to rule out any of the 11 contenders, the each-way vote going to the lightly-weighted RATH GAUL HILL (Each-Way). Three from 9 over fences, the mount of Sam Twiston-Davies is at his best with plenty of cut in the ground and may have found the going too lively on both of his starts this season at Newbury.
Only 1lb higher than when winning at the Berkshire racecourse 11 months ago, the Sam Drinkwater-trained eight-year-old is capable of going close at a double-figure price.
Recommendation: Rath Gaul Hill (Each-Way) - 10/1 with bet365 (4 places)
2:20pm Musselburgh - Teddy Blue
An open renewal of this £80k bet365 Scottish Champion Chase (Handicap), the field of 8 headed by the Joe Tizzard-trained JPR One, who has to concede between 17lb and 26lb to his rivals. Four of these ran in a valuable handicap over course and distance on New Year’s Day, Paul Nicholls’ Insurrection coming out best in finishing third, beaten just under three lengths.
While that form is likely to be confirmed, this looks to have been the plan for the Harry Derham-trained TEDDY BLUE since Paul O’Brien’s mount disappointed when favourite for a competitive Ascot handicap two months ago. Winner of a Premier Handicap at the Berkshire racecourse on his reappearance, that effort of three weeks later may have come too soon for the eight-year-old, who still looks fairly treated racing off a mark of 134.
Recommendation: Teddy Blue - 9/2 with William Hill
2:40pm Sandown - Kitzbuhel
Only four runners for this Grade 1 novices’ chase but a fascinating race all the same. While the home team are represented by a couple of talented novices in Miami Magic and Sixmilebridge, it is the two Irish contenders who are most likely to fight out the finish.
While Gordon Elliott’s Kala Conti has impressed on both of her victories over fences and has the advantage of the valuable 7lb mares’allowance, slight preference is for Willie Mullins’ KITZBUHEL, winner of Kempton’s Grade 1 Kauto Star Novices’ Chase on Boxing Day.
If Harry Cobden’s mount jumps the tricky Sandown fences as well as he did at Kempton, Mullins can record his second win in the race following that of Gitane Du Berlais in 2015.
Recommendation: Kitzbuhel - 11/10 with William Hill
2:55pm Leopardstown - Kargese
In what looks to be a match between Gordon Elliott’s Romeo Coolio and Willie Mullins’ KARGESE, the 7lb mare’s allowance may just swing things in favour of the latter, who improved for her first run over fences at Cork to win comfortably at Leopardstown over Christmas.
I thought Romeo Coolio made hard work of beating Irish Panther over today’s course and distance on Boxing Day and would be suited by another three furlongs, the distance of his two previous wins over fences.
Recommendation: Kargese - 2/1 with Coral
3:10pm Sandown - Henri The Second (Nap)
First and second respectively in this race 12 months ago, the O’Neill’s Red Dirt Road and HENRI THE SECOND (Nap) from the Ditcheat stable of Paul Nicholls take each other on again under conditions similar to those of last year. Eight lengths separated the pair on that occasion, but on 8lb better terms and with a big fitness edge, the latter is a strong fancy to reverse that form.
After finishing 3rd of 4 on his second start over fences at Doncaster on his reappearance in November, Harry Cobden’s mount reverted back to the smaller obstacles for a two and a half mile handicap on this course earlier in the month. Staying-on to be beaten in a photo by Sam Thomas’s Range, Henri The Second will be better suited by this three and half furlong longer trip and can get back to winning ways off a mark 2lb lower than that of last year.
Recommendation: Henri The Second (Nap) - 3/1 with Coral
3:30pm Leopardstown - I Am Maximus (Each-Way)
Well done to trainer Willie Mullins for being responsible for 8 of the 13 runners in what promises to be one of the best Grade 1 staying chasers seen in recent years. The first 5 horses home in the Savills Chase over Christmas renew rivalry, and when you add in the likes of Fact Or File, Firefox, Gaelic Warrior and the mare Spindleberry, unbeaten on all 5 starts over fences, it is hard to remember a better renewal of this Paddy Power Gold Cup. And we haven’t even mentioned reigning Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Inothewayurthinkin.
Not surprisingly, the betting is headed by Galopin De Champs, the mount of Closutton’s number one jockey Paul Townsend. At a current top price of 13/8, the 10-year-old makes little appeal from a betting perspective however, and with several bookmakers going 4 places, I would rather back 2024 Grand National winner I AM MAXIMUS (Each-Way) at 14/1.
Jack Kennedy’s mount ran a stormer to split Affordale Fury and Galopin Des Champs in the Savills Chase after being hampered at the final fence. In what looks sure to be a true-run race, I Am Maximus is expected to be staying-on better than most at the business end of what promises to be a race to savour.
Recommendation: I Am Maximus (Each-Way) - 14/1 with Paddy Power (4 places)
3:42pm Sandown - Fortunate Man
Sara Bradstock’s Mr Vango would be a popular winner of this 3m handicap chase. However, over a trip that is probably the bare minimum for Jack Tudor's mount, the concession of 26lb to the JP McManus-owned FORTUNATE MAN may prove beyond the top weight.
With fancied rides in 5 of the 7 races at the Esher racecourse, jockey Harry Cobden could have an excellent day. Two from 7 since going over fences, both on Aintree’s Mildmay course, the Jonjo & A J O’Neill-trained seven-year-old will be at home over today's trip and ground and can make the most of his light weight in conditions which are sure to be testing.
Recommendation: Fortunate Man - 9/4 with William Hill
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
You can follow Alan Kelly on Twitter for more racing insight.
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