Alan Kelly’s Tips
Alan heads to Newcastle on Thursday with his strongest fancy of the day
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A frustrating week ending Sunday 7th December with seven seconds, including that of 25/1 selection Breeze Of Wind in Kelso’s Scottish Borders National on Sunday, resulting in a small loss of -£4.47 over the seven days.
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Alan Kelly's Tips - Thursday, 11 December
Soft conditions are expected for the three jumps meetings scheduled to take place in Britain on Thursday, those at Warwick, Taunton and Newcastle, although the word good features in the forecast going at all three fixtures.
1:25pm Warwick - Norn Iron
Unbeaten on both of his starts over fences for trainer Dan Skelton, the five-year-old Chuggy will attempt to land a hat-trick of victories following successes at Uttoxeter and here at Warwick. The most recent of those wins came over a trip of 2m 4f however and I’m not convinced the drop back to two miles will suit the Walk In The Park gelding.
Kerry Lee’s Rodney was an unlucky loser on his first run over fences at Bangor in October. The son of Golden Horn was set to make a winning debut only to fall at the final fence of that extended 2m 1f handicap with the race at his mercy. Raised 5lb to a mark of 109, Liam Harrison’s mount is capable of going close, granted a clear round and in receipt of weight from his 8 rivals.
The vote, however, goes to a horse making his chasing debut in the shape of the Harry Derham-trained NORN IRON. The Soldier Of Fortune gelding showed plenty of promise in five starts over hurdles for the stable, in particular when narrowly beaten in a couple of Newbury handicaps earlier in the year. Paul O’Brien’s mount finally got off the mark when winning a Plumpton maiden in April by 19 lengths
Norn Iron has run well following a break in the past and is fancied to win at the first try over fences off what may prove to be a lenient opening mark of 118.
Recommendation: Norn Iron - 5/1 with bet365
1:45pm Newcastle - Wasthatok (Nap)
Heavily supported to win on his second outing over fences at Catterick last month, Philip Kirby’s WASTHATOK (Nap) got no further than the third fence at the North Yorkshire racecourse before unseating jockey Joe Williamson after making a minor error. The seven-year-old had previously run out a most impressive winner over today’s course and distance seven days earlier and now racing off a 8lb higher mark is fancied to make a successful return to the smaller obstacles.
Since leaving the Kerry Lee stable during the summer, Wasthatok took a while to find his form for connections on the flat and over hurdles. However, after finishing a promising second at Wetherby on the final day of October, the Mount Nelson gelding looked as if he had just in the race when cruising through to take the lead jumping the second-last at Newcastle on his penultimate start.
While that may not have been the strongest of races, the selection looks more than capable of winning again off a revised mark of 102 under similar conditions and with the 3lb claim of his regular rider. With 5 winners from their last 20 runners, there is nothing wrong with the form of the Philip Kirby stable.
Of the opposition, Nicky Richards’ unexposed Baratablet could prove a danger if straight enough on his first start for almost 8 months, a remark which also applies to George Bewley’s lightly-weighted Wise Move.
Recommendation: Wasthatok (Nap) - 5/2 with bet365
2:05pm Taunton - Smugglers Haven
From her small team, Sara Bradstock went agonisingly close to landing a big prize on Saturday when Mr Vango was beaten on the nod by Twig in Aintree’s valuable Becher Chase. This novices’ handicap chase worth just over £7k to the winner may offer only minor compensation for that narrow miss at the weekend, but the six-year-old Smugglers Haven can continue her progressive profile over fences by following up her win at Cheltenham of just over six weeks ago.
Three from seven over hurdles, the daughter of Elusive Pimpernel found one too good on her first three starts over fences before justifying strong support in a hugely competitive 18-runner amateur riders handicap at Prestbury Park with today’s partner Miss Lily Bradstock in the saddle.
Raised only a generous 2lb for that game success, and with Lily’s 7lb claim racing against the likes of Harry Cobden and James Bowen, Smugglers Haven is expected to take plenty of beating despite dropping down two furlongs in trip. The two horses heading the weights, Kap Vert and Below The Radar, are both making their debuts over fences and are worth noting for any market confidence, while best of the rest is Joe Tizzard’s bottom weight Bertie Wooster, who would have gone close when beaten a neck on this course last month but for a mistake at the last.
Recommendation: Smugglers Haven - 9/2 with Virgin Bet
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
You can follow Alan Kelly on Twitter for more racing insight.
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