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Latest Profit & Loss Figures
An excellent week ending Sunday, October 19th, which resulted in four winning days and featuring winners at 11/8, 11/2, 16/1, 5/1, 7/2, 2/1 and 11/4.
Four out the last seven Nap of the Day selections have obliged at odds of 7/1, 11/8, 2/1 and 11/4.
- P/L for the week ending Sunday, October 19th: +£25.83
- P/L for the year 2025 to date: +£22.66
- P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
- P/L since 1st September 2022: +£508.65
Alan Kelly's Tips - Tuesday, October 20th
The feature race on today's card at the Curragh is the Group 3 Staffordstown Stud Stakes at 3.17pm, while at 4:25pm is the Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Amateur Riders Derby, the 1m 4f contest due to be run under soft conditions.
The ground at the Scottish racecourse at Perth is currently good, good to soft in places, although conditions are expected to ease prior to racing getting underway at 1:15pm.
4:25pm Curragh - Sirius (Each-Way)
Noel Meade’s Layfayette is the highest-rated of the 15 contenders for this Amateur Riders Derby and has a more than capable partner in Mr Finian Maguire. The eight-year-old would take plenty of beating at his best, as when winning a Group 2 contest on this course three years ago. It has been a while since the French Navy gelding showed anything like that level of form however and is passed over.
The powerful Ballydoyle stable of Aidan O’Brien is represented by the lightly-raced four-year-old Mont St Michel, who finished last of the 9 runners on his most recent start in the Prix Foy at Longchamp. While the son of Galileo is respected, along with Jessica Harrington’s Taipan, the vote goes to SIRIUS (Each-Way), one of two runners for Willie Mullins, the other being this year’s Scottish Grand National 7th Olympic Man with son Patrick in the saddle.
After winning the valuable Connacht Hotel (Q.R.) Handicap at last year's Galway Festival at odds of 50/1 in the hands of today’s rider Mr David Dunsdon, the stewards accepted the trainer’s representative’s explanation for the improvement in form as down to “the mare needed the run last time out after a long absence and this coupled with the application of the hood had helped bring about the improvement.”
Here we are 15 months later and following a respectable 13th place in the Irish Cesarewitch on her first start for 422 days. With a hood on once again and in receipt of weight from all but one of her rivals, a big run from this lightly-raced mare is expected.
Recommendation: Sirius (Each-Way) - 11/2 with bet365 (3 places)
4:40pm Perth - Diamond Geezer (Nap)
It would be no surprise to see Sean Bowen’s visit to the Scottish racecourse prove fruitful, as the current champion jockey has fancied rides in all but two of the eight races. I like his rider for Olly Murphy in this two and a half mile handicap hurdle, the lightly-raced Ocovango gelding DIAMOND GEEZER (Nap).
Following three runs in novice company, the six-year-old made his handicap debut in a five-runner affair at Uttoxeter 11 months ago when beating all bar Henry Daly’s Strackan, the runner-up 19 lengths ahead of the third horse home. The form of that race received a big boost when the winner went on to follow-up at Bangor and Cheltenham, earning a rating of 123 in the process.
While Diamond Geezer was unlucky to come up against an improver on his handicap debut, that was nothing compared to his first run of this season when attempting to give 19lb to a newcomer from the James Owen stable in Shantou Lucky, a horse once rated as high as 125 and running in this Worcester handicap off a mark of 79.
Needless to say, Diamond Geezer had to settle for second spot behind that easy winner, but that was still a cracking effort given the circumstances. It is unlikely Sean Bowen’s mount will be meeting anything as well-handicapped as that horse, who went on to win his next two starts, and sporting cheekpieces for the first time, Diamond Geezer is fancied to open his account over the smaller obstacles.
The Russell/Scudamore mare Mountain Molly makes her handicap debut following her course and distance victory of last month and may prove the chief threat to the selection, although Patrick Wadge’s mount does not look particularly well-treated on an opening mark of 106.
Recommendation: Diamond Geezer (Nap) - 9/4 with bet365
5:15pm Perth - Spit Spot
The Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore stable are represented in all 8 races at the Scottish racecourse, double-handed in this 3m finale with I Wish You, the mount of Patrick Wadge, and SPIT SPOT who will have the services of talented 5lb claimer Jack Power.
The former opened his account over hurdles with a win in a novice contest at Carlisle around this time last year, but has struggled in handicap company since then and may need a little help from the handicapper before recording a second victory. Stablemate Spit Spot, on the other hand, winner of a maiden hurdle at Musselburgh back in March, has improved with each step-up in trip since being sent handicapping, all three starts coming on this track.
Trying today’s trip of 3m for the first time last month, the daughter of Sir Percy ran out an easy winner, rising 7lb to a mark of 110 in the process. The 5lb claim of her rider gives Spit Spot an excellent opportunity to follow-up under similar conditions and with more improvement to come. The main danger to Spit Spot may come further down the weights in the shape of Sean Bowen’s mount Stiletto. The hat-trick seeking son of Frankel is 13lb higher than when recording the first of two victories, at Worcester and here at Perth last month, and is respected despite running off a career-high mark of 100 on his 18th outing over hurdles.
Recommendation: Spit Spot - 11/4 with bet365
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
You can follow Alan Kelly on Twitter for more racing insight.
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