Charlie McCann’s Horse Racing Tips For Saturday, 4 July - Sandown & Newmarket
Charlie heads to Sandown on Saturday for his best bet
It's a busy day of racing action in the UK and Ireland, and Charlie McCann is here with his exclusive free horse racing tips - only at FreeBets.
2:25pm Sandown - Classic (Each-Way) & Ebt's Guard (Each-Way)
Beagle Bay did us a favour when scoring over course and distance last month from a 5lbs lower mark, but the third disappointed midweek and his draw in stall twelve of seventeen is a concern. Ozat was an eye-catcher at Royal Ascot, but he, too, will do well to overcome a poor draw in stall fourteen.
Indalo heads the market for the Coral Challenge, having finished in the frame in both recent starts in Newbury's Spring Cup and the Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot last month. Given he also finished second in the Cambridgeshire back in the autumn, Roger Varian's five-year-old is building up an impressive profile, but he is now 18lbs higher in the weights than when last scoring on turf, and is short enough at 4/1 in such a hot race, although that success was over today's course and distance.
Well drawn in stall three and ridden by Ray Dawson – who did us a big favour with Grizedale on Thursday – he is the one to beat under his optimum conditions, but I am going to throw darts at a couple at a double-figure price.
CLASSIC – drawn in stall five - beat Indal a neck in the Spring Cup at Newbury, and the pair meet on the same terms this afternoon. Richard Hannon's six-year-old had a poor draw and ran better than his finishing position would suggest in the Hunt Cup, and the selection has finished in the first two in four of his four starts at the Esher track.
EBT'S GUARD (4) finished fourth in the Spring Cup – 5lbs better off with both Indalo and Classic – and occupied the same position when fourth in the Hunt Cup, although he was drawn high and there was a track bias – favoured high numbers - for the first three days of the Royal meeting.
Both selections are freely available at 12/1 on Friday morning (five places), and I have backed both each-way.
Recommendations: Classic (Each-Way) - 12/1 with bet365 (5 places) & Ebt’s Guard (Each-Way) - 12/1 with bet365 (5 places)
4:10pm Sandown - Spirit Of Saxony (Nap)
King's Cavalry has won two of his three starts so far this season and is only 3lbs higher than when scoring at Doncaster last time. He only won a nose in a bunch finish on Town Moor, but he travelled like much the best horse, and the third is a subsequent winner. He is the one to beat, but can pull hard in his races and would want a strong gallop to chase.
SPIRIT OF SAXONY (Nap) has form figures of 2-1-2 over seven furlongs and looked an unlucky loser when second over course and distance – drawn in stall one – when constantly denied a run next to the far rail. He was beaten a length-and-a-quarter and is 2lbs higher today, but he would have won with a clear passage.
The three-year-old has again drawn stall one, and Charlie Bishop will need luck in running from his ground-saving berth, but he is taken to go one better for Eve Johnson-Houghton.
Recommendation: Spirit Of Saxony (Nap) - 7/4 with bet365
5:22pm Sandown - Flying Frontier (Each-Way)
Point Of Contact did us a favour at York (1m1f) last time under Ryan Moore when he gave the impression this step up to 10f would suit, although there are mixed messages as to its suitability on breeding.
Another fancied runner drawn in stall one, the four-year-old looked a real grinder on the Knavesmire in a race that is working out well. A 3lbs rise looks fair, although – as with Spirit Of Saxony – you will need luck in running from stall one.
I hope I am not being too clever, but will support last year's winner FLYING FRONTIER (Each-Way), who is 1lb lower than when landing the corresponding race twelve months ago for James Tate and Rossa Ryan.
The selection has a bit to find with Spoken Truth on Zetland Gold Cup form last time, but was finishing best of all at Redcar and has likely long been the aim for this dual course winner who loves fast ground. He remains an entire at six and is only 1lb better off with Spoken Truth for the length-and-three-quarters he was behind the latter at Redcar, but he is unbeaten in two starts over course and distance on fast ground and gets the ew vote.
Hills are the only firm with prices at the time of writing, and their 13/2 quote is fair, but we may get a point bigger later in the day (Friday).
Recommendation: Flying Frontier (Each-Way) - 13/2 with William Hill (3 places)
2:05pm Newmarket - Hard To Believe (Each-Way)
Haydock's Lancashire Oaks card has been rerouted to Newmarket as the Lancashire track does much-needed course maintenance, although they are hopeful of racing next month.
Regular readers will be aware that I'm not a great fan of the July course, but I do believe Arc Ole Ole is too short (best price 7/4) in the 1m6f handicap despite a great run in the 12f three-year-old handicap at Royal Ascot – had a hard race – last time.
He did us a favour at York on his penultimate start, but he is a stone higher in the weights, has stamina to prove – although races as if he will relish the trip – and is 11lbs worse off with recent course winner HARD TO BELIEVE (Each-Way), who was sent off 2/1 favourite for that York race but was beaten over 9l.
Andrew Balding has two last time out winners in the race, but I liked the way Hard To Believe hit the line here last time when he gave every impression he would improve again for the additional quarter of a mile. The third home in that race – Temple – did little for the form midweek, but the latter was poorly ridden in a race where you needed to race prominently.
William Hill, bet365, BetMGM and Sky Bet are betting three places on this fascinating seven-runner race. The 7/1 for the selection on Friday morning looked fair.
Recommendation: Hard To Believe (Each-Way) - 7/1 bet365 (3 places)
2:40pm Newmarket - Tattycoram (Each-Way)
Tiffany has never finished out of the first three in her eleven starts on turf, winning four, but she has now been runner-up in her last four starts and was beaten in listed company at Chantilly on her reappearance. She is a top price of Evens for the Group 2 Lancashire Oaks, and I must take her on at the prices.
TATTYCORAM (Each-Way) has been off the track since landing the listed Warwick Stakes at Goodwood at the beginning of May, and the form has been franked by the subsequent exploits of second Coedana, who was beaten 3l by subsequent Group 1 winner Estrange at Carlisle before winning a listed contest at Pontefract.
On official figures, Tattycoram has to improve again to trouble the favourite, but Goodwood was a career best, and I hope Ed Greatrex is positive on the four-year-old who gets the each-way vote.
Recommendation: Tattycoram (Each-Way) - 17/2 with bet365 (3 places)
4:25pm Newmarket - Silver Ghost
The official explanation for the withdrawal of SILVER GHOST from her intended run over course and distance last week was "other", which is incredibly unhelpful for everyone other than those associated with the filly.
She was given too much to do when runner-up on the Rowley Mile last time, and a 2lbs rise should not prevent her from running a big race, although who knows what the effect of the draw will be.
David Egan takes over in the saddle on Emma Lavelle's four-year-old filly for the first time. If they come up the centre of the track in the earlier races, that would be a plus. I would not want the field to congregate to the stand rail, as he might be caught out on the wing from stall three.
That said, granted a decent gallop, the grey should be hard to beat, although you don't associate the stable with 7f flat race performers!
Recommendation: Silver Ghost - 5/2 with William Hill
*Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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