Championship Playoff Preview: Gab Sutton Predicts 25/26 Playoffs
EFL pundit Gab Sutton picks his best bets for the Championship Play-Offs which get underway tonight.
Alongside that, we've also got the latest Championship playoff odds below from leading betting sites, so you can see how the market is shaping up.
Championship Playoff Preview: Hull vs Millwall
- Prediction: Millwall to win first leg – 6/4
When The Overlap did an EFL Fan Debate ahead of the Play-Offs this week, ‘Fenners’ asked the audience to put their hand up for who they thought would win them in the Championship, and not a single person put their hand up for Hull.
That just shows you how big an underdog the Tigers are: the other three candidates are priced shorter than 3/1, and Sergej Jakirovic’s side can be backed at a whopping 7/1.
In some ways, it’s hard to argue with that, because Hull have conceded the most goals of the four by some distance at 66, and the data metrics suggest based on performances, they could’ve shipped about another 18.
Regan Slater scooped up multiple awards at the end-of-season dinner, but it’s felt as if the City stalwart has run the midfield like a one-man band on his own at times, which is why the Humbersiders have been on the back foot for large portions of their games.
Defensively, meanwhile, partnering John Egan will either be the error-prone Semi Ajayi, or a half-fit Charlie Hughes, and neither option fills the black-and-amber army with great confidence.
While Millwall are rightly favourites to reach Wembley, though, the 4/9 on them to qualify feels a tad short, given that their opponents have scored more goals than them this season.
What Hull do have going for them is firepower: Oli McBurnie has been as potent a striker as any in the Championship this season, receiving excellent ammunition from Joe Gelhardt, Liam Millar and fit-again Mohamed Belloumi.
They hardly ever control games, but they can produce five or six moments in a match where they cut teams open in transitional attacks.
Millwall, though, are the more varied outfit, which is why the 6/4 on them winning at the Kcom might hold greater value.
They might not have the same firepower, although Josh Coburn and Mihailo Ivanovic can cause problems as a pairing even if neither are prolific, and they have creativity in the form of Camiel Neghli and Femi Azeez.
Defensively, meanwhile, the likes of Tristan Crama, Caleb Taylor and Championship regular Jake Cooper have been reliable all season for Alex Neil’s side, who will feel they can a lead back to the Den.
Championship Playoff Preview: Middlesbrough v Southampton
- Prediction: Southampton to qualify – 8/11
As good a Championship side as anyone up to the opposition penalty box, Middlesbrough’s automatic promotion bid has been held back by a lack of ruthlessness in front of goal at a crucial stage.
An impressive victory at Sheffield United in February made Boro the new promotion favourites, but they lost their place straight away to Coventry, when they were defeated 3-1 at the CBS, a result that dented confidence and gave way to dropped points in five successive home games against bottom half opposition – Championship Player of the Year Hayden Hackney’s injury didn’t help things either.
Kim Hellberg’s side, a master of artificial transitions, are hoping they’ve found their range at the perfect time, finishing with back-to-back wins including a 5-1 trouncing of Watford on the final day, with individualistic forward Morgan Whittaker returning from injury to bag a brace.
How much that result will do for confidence for strikers - such as likeably industrious, selfless link-up man Tommy Conway – remains to be seen, but one thing’s for sure:
Middlesbrough have to take their chances against Southampton, the best team in the league in the second half of the season.
Since Ben Garner arrived in January to assist Tonda Eckert, the Saints have stormed on to title-winning form, as the likes of Taylor Harwood-Bellis, Shea Charles and Leo Scienza have begun to show their higher-level class.
Meanwhile, Championship go-tos like Tom Fellows and Finn Azaz are starting to assert themselves, plus target man Cyle Larin has proved much better than their striker additions from last summer.
Superbly coached under Eckert, the Saints have a nice flexibility about them: they can build through Fellows down the right hand side to drag the opposition across, and create opportunities for Scienza to shoot or create from the left.
Alternatively, they can build down the left through Scienza and Ryan Manning, and then use the passing range of Charles and others to release Fellows for 1v1s, and cross from the byline.
They have clear patterns of play, but also enough adaptability to keep opponents guessing.
Middlesbrough and Southampton are evenly matched in terms of how good those respective sides are: the difference is, we know the latter can finish their chances.
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