Scottish Football Tips: Kai Watson's Best Bets, April 18
It’s another busy week of Scottish football as the season edges towards its decisive run-in, including the semi-finals of the Scottish Cup at Hampden.
Our Free Bets Scottish football expert, Kai Watson, runs the rule over five matches north of the border.
Scottish Football Tips
Here are Kai's five top football betting tips for the weekend, featuring the best odds from UK betting sites to help you get maximum value on your bets.
Dunfermline vs Falkirk - Falkirk to win
The first Scottish Cup Semi-Final this weekend looks set to be a cracker as rivals Dunfermline and Falkirk head to the national stadium. Falkirk are having an incredible first season back in the Scottish Premiership and will finish in the top six. Dunfermline currently sit joint third in the Championship with Arbroath and have hit some good form coming into the end of the season.
Last season when both were in the Championship, Dunfermline didn’t win any of the matchups;
Dunfermline 0-2 Falkirk
Falkirk 2-1 Dunfermline
Dunfermline 3-3 Falkirk
Falkirk 1-0 Dunfermline
Since then, both have improved but Falkirk are playing at a higher standard and most of their players from last season have developed into good Premiership players. Both teams took completely different approaches to their last fixtures.
Dunfermline rotated for their 2-0 defeat to Partick but they took that to a different level against Airdrie and their starting eleven had an average age of just 21.1! That being said, their young players came back from 2-0 down to make it 2-2 with 17-year-old Lucas Fyfe grabbing a goal and an assist.
The biggest issue for Neil Lennon is that he will be missing star striker Andy Tod and starting centre back Jeremiah Chilokoa-Mullen.
Falkirk were excellent in the first half against Rangers last Sunday and went with a full strength team but fell apart in the second half, eventually losing 6-3. The week before they were impressive against Motherwell and are now eight points behind them.
Falkirk, on paper, have a much stronger team and have been in good form. Barney Stewart could come back to haunt the club he spent the first half of the season on loan at and Calvin Miller and Ben Broggio have also been impressive recently.
With it being a rivalry and one-off game, anything could happen but I can’t see anything other than John McGlynn’s fairytale season continuing.
Celtic vs St Mirren - Both teams to score
Celtic haven’t been at their best recently but they still keep winning and have four out of their last five league games, which includes a 1-0 win against St. Mirren last weekend. Martin O’Neil’s team have only scored three goals in the last three games, which has been one of Celtic’s biggest issues this season.
They create more chances than anyone else in the Premiership, they have the highest xG, highest possession and highest expected points but they haven’t managed to turn their impressive data into actual performances and results.
St. Mirren have had a really up and down season, in the league they have been really disappointing and still aren’t safe as they’re only two points ahead of Kilmarnock who currently sit in the relegation play-off spot. They do have a trophy in the cabinet though, after, deservedly, beating Celtic at Hampden in December when Stephen Robinson was still in charge.
Craig McLeish is in charge now and St. Mirren played pretty well in the 1-0 defeat at Celtic Park, they didn’t create much but popped the ball about the park pretty well and set up solidly.
This being a one-off game and given how comfortable they looked at times last weekend, I think St. Mirren can get at Celtic and put them under pressure. Although Celtic haven’t been great and free-scoring like fans have been used to, I don’t see them not scoring in the semi-final, which should, hopefully, be another exciting game.
Airdrie vs Partick Thistle - Partick to win
With three games left in the Championship season, Mark Wilson’s Partick side currently sit five points behind league leaders St. Johnstone. To stand any chance of winning the title, they need to keep winning and hope that St. Johnstone drop points.
The big thing for this weekend is that St. Johnstone don’t play until midweek because they’re due to play Dunfermline. This represents a massive chance to put pressure on the league leaders and cut the gap to just two points.
Airdrie couldn’t beat the aforementioned 21.1 average aged Dunfermline side midweek, even after being 2-0 up so I don’t expect them to be able to get anything against Partick on Saturday.
If Thistle drop points in this one then their chances at the title are all but over but I can’t see that being the outcome here.
Ross County vs Ayr United - Over 2.5 goals
Ayr United had been bad up until their 1-0 win against Arbroath last week but Ross County have, quite frankly, been terrible. Stuart Kettlewell’s side sit bottom of the table despite, potentially, having the biggest wage bill in the league.
Nothing seems to be working for them and they just can’t string any kind of positive results together. They haven’t won in the last five and have lost four of those games, they have lost the last three whilst conceding eight and only scoring once.
They’re in the position they are in due to, two games ago, getting hammered 4-0 by relegation rivals Airdrie. Before the 1-0 win against Arbroath, Ayr hadn’t won in their last four and were hammered 3-0 by Raith and Dunfermline respectively.
Both sides haven’t been great and have been really poor defensively so I think, for a change, both sides could score their fair share of goals in Dingwall.
Cove Rangers vs Stenhousemuir - Stenhousemuir to win
Stenny drew against title challengers Inverness last weekend but after Caley won their game in hand, they went one point clear at the top of the table. After Hamilton winning last weekend, Cove are only three points clear of the relegation play-off spot.
Stenny have only lost three of sixteen away games this season and don’t concede many goals away from home. Cove have the second worst home record in the league having only won three of sixteen so far, which is a big part of the reason they’re in the position they are in the league.
I can’t see anything other than a Stenhousemuir win here, especially when a positive result could take them back to the top of the table.
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