Charlie McCann’s Horse Racing Tips Thursday, 9 July - Newmarket & Doncaster
Charlie heads to Newmarket on Thursday for his best bet
It's a busy day of racing action in the UK and Ireland, and Charlie McCann is here with his exclusive free horse racing tips - only at FreeBets.
3:35pm Newmarket - Convergent
The evergreen Rebel's Romance has been a wonderful flagbearer for Charlie Appleby, and they bypassed last month's Hardwicke – a race he won last year - at Royal Ascot to wait for today's Princess Of Wales's Stakes, which his trainer described as a "much easier option for him" when interviewed by the Racing Post earlier in the week.
The eight-year-old carries a 3lbs penalty for his Group 2 success in Meydan when last seen back in February, but I hope CONVERGENT bounces back from his Coronation Stakes defeat last time in the same way as Calandagan did at the weekend.
Both Convergent and Calandagan failed to give their running on the soft ground at Epsom, and the selection had previously impressed when landing the Group 3 John Porter Stakes at Newbury back in the spring. This will be the fastest ground the four-year-old – half the age of the market leader – has encountered, and trainer Karl Burke suggested pre-season that he didn't want extremes of ground for the lightly raced four-year-old.
The hope is that there is enough give in the ground to allow Convergent to put his best foot forward. If it does, I hope to see him have too much pace for the Godolphin veteran.
Recommendation: Convergent - 2/1 with bet365
4:45pm Newmarket - Morris Dancer
The draw had a huge effect on results on the straight course at Royal Ascot last month, with high numbers holding sway for much of the week. On the final day of the meeting in the 7f Jersey Stakes, the first four home were drawn 2-1-8-3, which had most form gurus scratching their heads.
Third home – having his first start since August – was Godolphin's MORRIS DANCER, who is entitled to come on for his belated seasonal reappearance and also gave the impression he would appreciate the return to a mile. Given he won a listed race over a mile at Salisbury – albeit a poor three-runner contest - on his final juvenile start, it was a surprise to see him race at seven furlongs at Ascot.
Indeed, his breeding suggests he will get further as the season progresses – out of a winner up to 1m7f – but he looks sure to run a big race, although he is a candidate to bounce with his Ascot comeback only nineteen days ago. William Buick takes over in the plate, having ridden Catullus – drawn on the wrong side – at the Royal meeting.
Karl Burke saddles Shayem, who was last seen finishing second in the German 2000 Guineas, having looked a non-stayer in his two previous starts over nine and ten furlongs. A bigger danger to the selection might come from nearer home, however, as stablemate Wild Desert looked an unlucky loser in the Superlative Stakes at this meeting twelve months ago.
Ryan Moore takes over in the saddle for the first time on the son of Too Darn Hot, who has been off the course since finishing second in a Canadian Group 1 over a mile back in September. That form has not worked out, however, given the winner, third and fourth have pulled up few trees since.
I am worried about the dreaded "bounce," but I do think that Morris Dancer is the one to beat.
Recommendation: Morris Dancer - 11/8 with bet365
5:20pm Newmarket - Shipbourne (Nap)
No three-year-old has won the concluding 1m handicap since 2019, although Parole D'Or was only beaten a short head in the race twelve months ago. That was the last time he raced at a mile, having been campaigned over further since, and he is only 1lb higher today.
He looks sure to run a big race, but I hope the lightly raced SHIPBOURNE (Nap) is the answer, although his draw in stall thirteen is a slight concern, with the vast majority of winners of the race in the last decade having been drawn low.
The selection is a lightly raced son of Frankel who has won two of his three career starts, including a 7f win on fast ground in a Doncaster Novice when he gave every impression he would relish an additional furlong. The runner-up at Doncaster – English Time – is now rated eighty-five, having won a Ffos Las maiden, while the selection, who gave the second 7lbs in South Yorkshire, looks favourably treated off eighty-eight, especially if you believe he will improve for the step up to a mile.
There was 9/2 available on Wednesday morning, but that didn't last long, and he is into 7/2 – across the board – at the time of writing.
Recommendation: Shipbourne (Nap) - 7/2 with bet365
3:55pm Doncaster - Room Fourteen
The filly ROOM FOURTEEN has won two of her last three starts, and I am not going to desert her now with a 4lbs rise for her narrow but comprehensive success at Redcar last time. Billy Loughnane takes over in the saddle for the first time, and my main concern is the draw as I don't like the idea of her being posted wide from stall eight as she takes the long left-hand bend into the straight.
There is little guaranteed pace in the race, and Loughnane must decide whether to track Suddenly I See, who is drawn next to the filly in stall seven, and looks the likely pace in the race. If not, he is likely to turn left out of the stalls and hold the James Fanshawe-trained three-year-old out the back.
Orbito must give the selection – three-year-olds receive 10lbs weight-for-age – 13lbs but he is considered the chief threat, and the top-weight comes out of stall one.
Recommendation: Room Fourteen - Evens with bet365
Grizedale (7:27pm) has been raised 4lbs for scoring at Kempton last week, yet connections are racing him under a 5lbs penalty with 10st 9lbs this evening at Newbury.
I will probably back him as I thought he had a bit in hand on the all-weather last week, but it does seem a strange decision, although my guess is that they want to get the horse into a handicap at York next month and may need to win again.
*Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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