EFL Tips: Gab Sutton's 30/1 Football Longshot Acca Tips for April 25
The penultimate week of the EFL season means there will be joy or despair up and down the country as promotion and relegation is decided.
Check out EFL expert Gab Sutton's tips below on Free Bets as he's pulled out some outsiders to follow this week.
EFL Tips: 30/1 Longshot Acca
Here are Gab's five tips for the weekend, featuring the best prices and latest odds from our top-rated betting sites.
Oxford vs Sheffield Wednesday - Oxford to win
Oxford’s 1-0 home loss to Wrexham in midweek, combined with Blackburn’s 3-1 victory at Sheffield United that confirmed their safety, leaves the Yellows’ survival prospects hanging by a thread.
Putting aside the possibility of a late West Brom points deduction for a moment, Matt Bloomfield’s side need to win both of their remaining games, and hope Charlton lose both of theirs to Hull and Swansea.
It’s a long shot, but the good news is that their next match is against a long-relegated Sheffield Wednesday side who, due to their own points deduction, are still on negative points.
Results and performances have incrementally improved for the Owls of late, with a positive showing at now-champions Coventry showing they can still be competitive, but it was familiar defeat for Henrik Pedersen’s side at Middlesbrough in midweek.
As such, the visitors are winless since September, while Oxford have shown signs of life under Bloomfield, with winger Stan Mills and on-loan striker Will Lankshear demonstrating their impressive talents.
Plymouth vs Port Vale - Plymouth to win
Port Vale’s relegation from League One was mathematically confirmed with a 1-0 loss at Cardiff on Wednesday, but the outcome had been coming, it’s felt, since the winter months.
The Valiants have certainly picked up under Jon Brady, with some encouraging performances with which to take heart as they head into League Two, but rarely did they back them up due to poor summer recruitment.
As Brady contemplates a sizeable rebuild at Vale Park, Plymouth Argyle look for stability, as the Devonians are already keen to extend talented head coach Tom Cleverley’s contract.
The Pilgrims have plenty of firepower, in the likes of Lorent Tolaj and Bim Pepple, and they still have a shot at the Play-Offs, but they need to win both their remaining games whilst hoping Stevenage don’t win either of them – and Luton fail to take maximum points.
Argyle have been in excellent form since November, though, with only five defeats in their last 26.
Wigan vs AFC Wimbledon - Wimbledon to win
Having looked to have stabilized with February’s 17 points from eight, Wimbledon have since hurtled back down to the dogfight by taking a meagre one point from their last 10 league games.
The Dons have been extremely unlucky in that time, both with fixtures – facing six of the top 10 in that sequence – and injuries, with numerous key players missing including several forwards such as Marcus Browne and Matty Stevens.
So, why are we backing them again?! Well, they’re a club that has an ingrained culture of thriving when they’re back’s against the wall, and there’s been enough fight in recent performances to suggest they can pull a big result out of the back.
At Lincoln on Good Friday, for instance, the hosts could have won promotion at the start of the day, and yet they deserved at least a point for their efforts, enjoying territory for periods and creating some presentable opportunities.
The talents of Aron Sasu, Osman Foyo and Junior Nkeng have shone through for the Wombles of late, and they may shine for a big result at Wigan.
Gary Caldwell’s side are looking towards next season after securing their own League One status, and teams in their position tend to have one or two off-days at the business end, against sides with everything on the line.
Barnet vs Gillingham - Barnet to win
Barnet go into the penultimate weekend of the League Two season still with a realistic chance of making the Play-Offs.
Yes, Dean Brennan’s side are four points off, which sounds like a big gap for this stage, but crucially, the teams above them are playing one another.
Meanwhile, the Bees host a Gillingham side who have been one of the worst teams in the league since September, but have long been safe because of the number of points they racked up early on – and then go to bottom side Harrogate on the final day.
If the North Londoners can amass maximum points, they then need one of two combination of results to happen:
- Swindon to lose to Grimsby, Chesterfield to fail to beat Crewe, and Swindon to draw with Chesterfield
OR
- Swindon to beat both Grimsby and Chesterfield, and Grimsby to fail to win at Tranmere
Neither set of eventualities are beyond the realms of possibility, so there’s a real incentive for Barnet to channel the performances that have given them 16 points, with as many goals, from their last six games.
The Bees have been creating chances all season, they’ve just been found wanting in front of goal, but since signing Kabongo Tshimanga from Crawley in January, they’ve added that ruthless edge.
Walsall vs Harrogate - Harrogate to win
I think the 9/4 on the Harrogate win represents fantastic value, and would encourage punters to back that one as a standalone bet if they don’t fancy an acca.
Walsall’s season has fizzled out with four wins in their last 19 league games, scuppering what looked in January to be a serious promotion bid.
The trajectory the Saddlers are on right now, it would be of little surprise if they ended up in the bottom half, while fans are asking all the big questions of Trivela ownership group.
Harrogate, on the other hand, have been competitive in performances for the last three months, and have probably deserved a few more points for their efforts, especially from the likes of Jack Evans and Reece Smith.
Simon Weaver’s side kept their survival hopes alive last week, thanks to Jacob Slater’s dramatic, 90+9 minute winner against Colchester.
If they can channel that hope in the Black Country, they have a chance of pulling off a result that could even leave them outside the drop zone going into the final day, if results elsewhere go their way.
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