Draft Kings and Court Jesters: Ranking Every NBA Team's Draft Success Since 2010
With the 2025 NBA Draft just around the corner, NBA media, scouts, fans, and even players are keeping tabs on the best prospects about to enter the league. However, regardless of all the projections, measurements, and footage, no one knows how a player will turn out.
Sometimes players don't mesh with the team that drafted them, and it takes a change of scenery before they can reach their full potential. Some dominate right out of the gate, some exceed expectations, and others fail to live up to the hype. There’s no exact science when it comes to the NBA Draft.
Considering that, the research team at Free Bets have gathered 15 years of data to determine the best and worst drafting NBA teams during that span, based on the players’ accolades, impact on the team, whether they stuck around or not, and how much value they provided the team with, depending on draft positioning.
Key Findings:
- Memphis, Dallas, and the Clippers have the worst draft records since 2010
- Building on the 2009 draft pick of Curry, Golden State has been the best-drafting team in the last 15 years
- Boston came in second, hitting on back-to-back #3 picks with Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown
- Denver made the top three after finding gems like Jokić, Murray, and Porter Jr
- This year’s NBA finalists, Indiana and OKC, prove that while drafting is important, superstars can also come through trades
Top 5 Best Drafting Teams
The Golden State Warriors dominate this decade. While Stephen Curry doesn’t count since he’s a member of the 2009 class, they found tremendous value with the likes of Klay Thompson (#11 overall), Draymond Green (#35 overall), and Kevon Looney (#30 overall), all of which helped the franchise win four titles in six trips to the NBA Finals. The Boston Celtics also fared quite well with Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown (both taken at No. 3 overall).
Then, we find the Denver Nuggets with Nikola Jokic (#41 overall), Jamal Murray (#7 overall), and Michael Porter Jr. (#14 overall), with the Milwaukee Bucks coming in right after with Giannis Antetokounmpo (#15 overall), one of the greatest draft steals of all time and the most impactful draft bargain of this era. Last but not least, the Portland Trail Blazers had Damian Lillard, a No. 6 pick who was amazing for them, but now he’s teaming up with the Greek Freak in Milwaukee.
Bottom 3 Drafting Teams
The Memphis Grizzlies successfully transitioned from the Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph era to stay competitive with Ja Morant at the helm. Even so, despite Morant (#2 overall) and Jaren Jackson Jr. (#4 overall), they haven’t managed to find much value in the draft, and most of the players they’ve taken have either been irrelevant or have left the team shortly after.
The Dallas Mavericks technically didn’t draft Luka Dončić, and he’s no longer with the team. Neither is Jalen Brunson, and they used the No. 9 pick to get Dennis Smith Jr., who left the team after one and a half seasons.
As for the Los Angeles Clippers, they’ve made a big splash with trades for Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, and James Harden, and they haven’t been a lottery team in a while. Even so, the only time they had a top-10 pick during that span, they used it on Al-Farouq Aminu, who was traded after one year.
Late Picks Who Became Franchise Stars
These players have exceeded all expectations, as they weren’t projected to be All-Stars or much more than borderline rotation players.
Giannis Antetokounmpo was projected to be a second-round pick, and he’s now an NBA champion, two-time MVP, Finals MVP, Defensive Player of the Year, and nine-time All-NBA selection. Draymond Green, on the other hand, was pivotal in four titles, has made nine All-Defensive teams, and won Defensive Player of the Year as a second-round pick.
Nikola Jokic was drafted during a commercial break with the No. 41 pick, and he’s now a champion, Finals MVP, three-time MVP, and seven-time All-Star.
Kevon Looney, while not a superstar, was a defensive anchor in three NBA championship runs. At the same time, Pascal Siakam had to earn his stripes as a G-League player for the Toronto Raptors before emerging as a two-way star and helping them win their first-ever NBA championship. But with Siakam on an expiring contract and strong signs he’d test free agency, the Raptors decided to trade him to Indiana to avoid another Fred VanVleet scenario later on.
Top Second-Round Picks
● Draymond Green (#35 overall)
● Nikola Jokić (#41 overall)
● Mitchell Robinson (#36 overall)
● Nic Claxton (#31 overall)
● Semi Ojeleye (#37 overall)
As we’ve already discussed, Draymond Green and Nikola Jokic exceeded their draft projections, becoming not only perennial starters but future first-ballot Hall of Famers. They’re two of the greatest second-round picks of all time.
Big men Mitchell Robinson and Nic Claxton emerged as starting-caliber centers and solid rebounders and rim protectors for the New York Knicks and Brooklyn Nets, respectively, and both of them extended their contracts with the teams that drafted them.
As for Sami Ojeleye, he was mostly a rotational piece for Brad Stevens during his days with the Boston Celtics, but he provided strong defense and rebounding on limited minutes off the bench.
Low-Impact Top 10 Picks
● Jimmer Fredette (#10 overall)
● Nerlens Noel (#6 overall)
● Cason Wallace (#10 overall)
● Lauri Markkanen (#7 overall)
● Zach Collins (#10 overall)
Top-10 draft picks are often seen as either franchise players or building blocks, which is why striking out on them can set a team back years. Unsurprisingly, the fans grow even more frustrated when those players thrive somewhere else.
Back in 2011, BYU star Jimmer Fredette was one of the most electrifying players in college basketball. Unfortunately, the sharpshooting guard struggled to establish himself in the league. He averaged roughly 7.0 points per game for the Sacramento Kings before bouncing around the league.
Nerlens Noel was projected to be an elite rebounder and rim protector, but injuries prevented him from making a big leap. He missed his rookie season with an injury, and the Philadelphia 76ers let him go after three seasons.
It’s still early to tell how Cason Wallace will pan out, and he plays for a stacked OKC Thunder team. However, he’s averaged just 7.5 points per game over two seasons.
Lauri Markkanen, on the other hand, has grown to be an All-Star-caliber player, but the Minnesota Timberwolves got virtually no return for him. They traded him to the Chicago Bulls for Jimmy Butler and Justin Patton, both of whom left after one year.
Last but not least, the Sacramento Kings selected Zach Collins with the No. 10 overall pick in 2017 and traded him to the Blazers for Harry Giles and Justin Jackson. Neither player averaged more than 7.0 points or spent more than three seasons with the team.
Closing Section
Big-market teams can buy their way to a championship by luring superstars in free agency, or even drafting their family members to play with them, but building a team through the NBA Draft can lead to a dynasty. The players will all be on the same timeline and spend their primes together and on team-friendly contracts.
It’s also important for teams to have a long-term vision and focus on developing their young talents. A lack of patience can spell disaster for a young player, and constantly blowing up the roster has rarely led to consistent success. Letting them grow through their mistakes and go through their learning curve, on the other hand, can maximize any young team’s potential.
Methodology:
To assess the long-term success of NBA draft picks from 2010 to 2024, we developed a comprehensive scoring system that quantifies each player’s value to their original team. The system evaluates on-court performance (0.5 points per game, 5 points per season, and bonuses for playoff and championship success), individual accolades (20-40 points for honors like All-Star, Rookie of the Year, or MVP), and assigns penalties (-10 to -20 points) for players who were cut, traded, or left in free agency. Only a player’s tenure with their drafting team is considered. Each team’s draft score is the total of these player values, with an average score per pick to highlight efficiency. To enable fair comparisons across players and teams, all scores are normalized to a 0-100 scale.
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