Next Pope Betting Odds 2025: Historical Betting Surprises & What Trends Tell Us
When does the conclave for the new pope start? Who picks the next pope, and how does the pope election in 2025 work?
With anticipation building ahead of the upcoming conclave, and UK betting sites offering next Pope odds, many people are asking when the new pope will be picked - and what clues history provides.
By examining the papal selection process and the key trends from the last three pontiffs, we can better understand what’s likely to shape the outcome of the 2025 papal election.
From the frontrunners to the unexpected patterns, these insights offer a revealing look into what may unfold behind the closed doors of the Sistine Chapel.
Predicting who will be elected the next Pope involves educated speculation rather than certainty.
Still, key patterns from the elections of John Paul II (1978), Benedict XVI (2005), and Francis (2013) offer some strategic clues, and we take a closer look at them below.
Common Patterns In Previous Popes
Age - Elected between 58–78; trend favours mid-60s to early 70s now (balance of experience & stamina).
Language - Multilingual with fluency in Italian, Latin, and either Spanish or French
Geography - 20th century: mostly Europeans, 21st century: push toward Global South (e.g., Latin America, Africa)
Curial Experience - One of the last two had Vatican leadership roles
Electability - Moderate doctrinal stance, good communicator, perceived unity-builder
Top Contenders - 2025 Conclave Prospects
Cardinal Pietro Parolin (Italy)
- Age - 69
- Current Role - Vatican's Secretary of State
- Pros - Fluent in four languages and the Church’s top diplomat
- Reputation - Moderate, pragmatic, and trusted in high-stakes negotiations with powers like China and Russia
- Why? - A seasoned insider with wide Curial respect. His Italian heritage and centrist stance make him a natural compromise candidate
Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines)
- Age - 67
- Current Role - Pro-prefect of the Dicastery for Evangelisation (effectively “Asia’s papal face”)
- Pros - Humble, multilingual, media-savvy, strong Vatican presence
- Reputation - Seen as Francis’ spiritual heir - pastoral, inclusive
- Why? - Youthful, Asian representation, deep theological training, global credibility
Cardinal Matteo Zuppi (Italy)
- Age - 69
- Current Role - Archbishop of Bologna and President of the Italian Bishops’ Conference
- Pros - Peace negotiator, member of Sant’Egidio, a centrist bridge-builder
- Reputation - A centrist and pastoral figure known for peace-building, social outreach, and strong ties to both progressive and traditional circles
- Why? - Italian (traditionally favoured), strong European support, trusted by Pope Francis
Cardinal Peter Turkson (Ghana)
- Age - 76
- Current Role - Chancellor of the Pontifical Academy of Sciences
- Pros - Speaks Italian, English, Fante, and French. Was President of the Pontifical Council for Justice and Peace, and later the Vatican department for Integral Human Development
- Reputation - Progressive on climate change and poverty, orthodox on doctrine
- Why? - Global South, respected within Curia, balances theology and pastoral care
Dark Horses
- Cardinal Jean-Claude Hollerich (Luxembourg) – Jesuit, progressive voice on sexual morality
- Cardinal Wilton Gregory (USA) – 76, first African-American cardinal, archbishop of Washington D.C., moderate and pastoral
Who's Most Likely To Be Named Pope?
If current trends continue, Luis Antonio Tagle emerges as the most likely candidate:
- Young by Vatican standards (67)
- Strong Francis-aligned theology
- Popular across both Global South and European cardinals
- Non-European but experienced in Curial leadership
How Accurate Have Bookmakers Been in Predicting the Next Pope?
Let's look at how accurate the bookmakers were in predicting the outcomes of the last three papal conclaves in 1978, 2005, and 2013.
The short answer: bookmakers have been hit-and-miss, with some accuracy in recent years, but also notable surprises.
Pope John Paul II (1978)
Real Name - Karol Wojtyła
Bookmaker Status - NOT among the top favourites
Why A Surprise? A non-Italian pope hadn't been elected in 455 years, and very few outside Poland knew him. Even the media in Rome were unprepared - he wasn't on many shortlists
What Happened? - Elected after the sudden death of Pope John Paul I - considered a compromise between reformist and conservative factions. Bookmakers and Vatican-watchers mostly expected an Italian like Cardinal Siri or Benelli
Pope Benedict XVI (2005)
Real Name - Joseph Ratzinger
Bookmaker Status - The leading favourite, as short as 3/1 on the eve of the conclave
Why Expected? - Ratzinger was Dean of the College of Cardinals and had been head of the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith (CDF) for over 20 years. Seen as Pope John Paul II's ideological successor
What Happened? - Elected quickly—on the 4th ballot, Bookmakers nailed it this time
Pope Francis (2013)
Real Name - Jorge Mario Bergoglio
Bookmaker Status - 10th to 15th range in the betting market at around 25/1
Why A Surprise? - He was already 76 and had reportedly finished second in the 2005 conclave.
He had health issues and few expected a Latin American choice. Bookmakers and pundits were focused on Cardinal Angelo Scola (Italy), Peter Turkson (Ghana), and Marc Ouellet (Canada)
What Happened? - Elected on the 5th ballot, widely seen as a compromise candidate who united different blocs
Next Pope Odds
| Next Pope | Odds |
|---|---|
| Pietro Parolin | 9/4 |
| Luis Antonio Tagle | 3/1 |
| Matteo Zuppi | 9/2 |
| Peter Turkson | 6/1 |
| Peter Erdo | 15/2 |
Odds via bet365, correct at 2pm, May 6th
