Chiefs v Texans Tips: NFL Divisional Playoffs Picks & Betting Offers
The 2025 NFL Playoffs Divisional Round kicks off on Saturday, 18 January, with an AFC clash at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City. As such, we’ve crafted our Chiefs v Texans tips in the form of a bet builder.
The top-seeded Kansas City Chiefs previously faced the No. 4 Houston Texans during the regular season. In Week 16, the Chiefs secured a 27-19 victory as 3.5-point home favourites, with the game finishing under the 42.5-point total.
This time, Kansas City is an 8.5-point home favourite, and the total has been set at 41.5 points, according to leading UK betting sites.
Chiefs v Texans Tips: 13/5 Bet Builder for NFL Divisional Round
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Chiefs v Texans Under 41.5 Points
While the top-seeded Chiefs enjoyed a bye last week, the Texans secured a commanding 32-12 home victory over the Los Angeles Chargers in the wild-card round. Houston intercepted Justin Herbert four times, including a pick-six, and sacked him on four occasions, limiting the Chargers to just 261 total yards—a testament to their impressive defensive strength.
During the regular season, Houston’s defence ranked among the best, conceding 21.9 points per game (14th) while allowing 114.0 rushing yards (11th) and 201.0 passing yards (6th). They also ranked fourth in sacks (49) and second in tackles for loss (106).
This defensive prowess will pose a significant challenge for the Chiefs, who leaned heavily on their own defence throughout the regular season. Kansas City surrendered just 19.2 points per game (4th) while allowing 101.8 rushing yards (8th) and 218.8 passing yards (18th).
Both teams struggled offensively during the regular season, with Kansas City averaging 22.6 points per game (15th) and Houston posting 21.9 points (19th). With cold weather expected at Arrowhead Stadium, we anticipate a gritty defensive battle, making the under on the total a solid starting point for our Chiefs v Texans tips.
Patrick Mahomes is unlikely to replicate Justin Herbert’s four-interception performance from last week’s wild-card clash. However, the Chiefs will need to adopt a careful approach, relying on their ground game to minimise risk and keep Houston’s defensive line at bay.
Conversely, the Texans face a tough task on the ground against Kansas City’s stout run defence. This will put added pressure on C.J. Stroud, who was the second-most-sacked quarterback in the regular season, to deliver against the Chiefs’ formidable defence.
C.J. Stroud Over 34.5 Passing Attempts
The Texans capitalised on the Chargers’ vulnerable run defence in the Wild Card round, amassing 168 yards on 34 carries, with Joe Mixon contributing 25 attempts for 106 yards and a touchdown. However, it’s unlikely Houston will replicate this success against Kansas City.
In their Week 16 loss to the Chiefs, Mixon managed just 57 yards on 14 carries, while the Texans collectively recorded 84 rushing yards. C.J. Stroud completed 23 of his 39 attempts for 244 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions.
Kansas City’s run defence has been formidable, conceding only 4.1 yards per carry (tied 4th in the NFL). They’ve limited opponents to fewer than 100 rushing yards in seven of their last 11 games. Expect the Chiefs to focus on containing Mixon and forcing Houston to rely on its aerial attack.
Consequently, Stroud is likely to attempt at least 35 passes in the Divisional Round, especially if the Texans find themselves trailing at Arrowhead Stadium. Last week, Stroud completed 22 of his 33 passes for 282 yards, a touchdown, and an interception.
During the regular season, he threw for 3,727 yards, 20 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. Stroud averaged 32.9 passing attempts across his first 16 games, excluding his brief appearance in Week 18.
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