Derby Day Superstitions: How America Picks Its Winners
When it comes to betting on the Kentucky Derby, we’re not just looking at the odds. From Maine to California, every state has its own lucky traditions. Some swear by coat colors, others trust their gut about spirited horses, and quite a few prefer to bet against the pack.
Backing the Underdogs
Let's start with a surprise: betting on longshots is America's favorite Derby Day superstition. Ten states, including Alaska, Colorado, Hawaii, and Pennsylvania, put their money on horses with the longest odds. Maybe there's something about those potential big payouts that captures our imagination. Or perhaps we just love a good underdog story.
The Color Theory
Not far behind are the color theorists. Nine states stick to picking horses based on their coat color. California leads this group, joined by states like Illinois, Missouri, and Virginia. Some bettors swear by specific colors, while others just go with whatever shade catches their eye that year. It's not exactly scientific, but hey – sometimes the prettiest horse does win.
Playing It Safe
Seven states, including Washington and Oklahoma, take the opposite approach. They always bet on the favorite. And why not? The favorite wins the Derby about 35% of the time, which isn't bad odds at all.
The Numbers Game
Post position betting is surprisingly popular, with seven states from Texas to Wisconsin believing certain starting gate positions bring better luck. And they might be onto something – since 1930, post position 5 has produced the most Derby winners.
Lucky Charms and Special People
Five states, including Alabama and Ohio, won't place a bet without their lucky charm in hand. Meanwhile, four states (Connecticut, Kansas, Minnesota, and North Carolina) make sure to watch the race with their lucky person. These might sound like odd traditions, but Derby Day is as much about the experience as it is about winning.
The Numbers Players
Delaware, Maryland, New Mexico, and South Dakota stick to betting their lucky numbers. Whether it's birthdays, anniversaries, or just favorite digits, these bettors trust their personal numbers to guide them to a win.
Picking the Sparkiest Horse
Four states, including New York and Arizona, watch the paddock before the race. They're looking for the horse with the most spirit – the one that looks ready to run. It's an old horseman's trick that's become a betting tradition.
Kentucky's Own Tradition
And then there's Kentucky itself. The Bluegrass State keeps it classic with the mint julep tradition. But here's the twist – they believe you need to drink it during the race, not just before, for the luck to work.
What Does It All Mean?
These superstitions tell us something interesting about Derby Day culture. It's not just about picking winners – it's about tradition, community, and having a personal connection to the race. Some people trust the odds, others trust their gut, and quite a few trust in luck.
The beauty of these Derby Day superstitions is that they make the race more fun. Sure, studying the racing forms might be more logical, but where's the joy in that? These quirky betting traditions have become part of the Derby's charm, turning a two-minute race into a full day of anticipation and excitement.
Whether you're sipping a mint julep in Kentucky or backing a longshot all the way from Alaska, your Derby Day superstition puts you in good company. After all, with 149 years of Derby history, who's to say which superstition works best? Maybe the real win is just being part of the tradition.
Methodology
In April 2025, the team at Free Bets surveyed 1,856 U.S. adults aged 21 and older.
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