French Open Women’s Final Betting Tips: Iga Swiatek v Jasmine Paolini
Steam Train Swiatek to march on at Roland Garros
- French Open, Women’s Final
- Roland Garros, Paris
- Saturday, June 8, 2024, 2pm
You wouldn’t bet against Iga Swiatek equalling the French Open women’s record in 12 months’ time.
The Polish world number one is within touching distance of her third straight title at Roland Garros, something Monica Seles, Justin Henin, Helen Wills, Kate Gillou, Adine Masson have all achieved down the years.
But only two players, French legends Suzanne Lenglen and Jeanne Mathey - more than 100 years ago, are the only women to have won four successive crowns.
Given Swiatek’s current dominance of the women’s game, that record is already coming into view.
Standing in her way is Italian pocket rocket Jasmine Paolini, the world number 15, chasing only a third career title and who is about to enter the world’s top 10 rankings.
Given the 28-year-old had never previously gone past the fourth round of a Grand Slam event, she has been the breakout star of this year’s French - women’s or men’s.
As impressive as she’s been - both players came through their respective semi-finals in straight sets - do I expect her to cause a shock here? No.
Swiatek, who dropped her only set in the tournament during her second-round win over Naomi Osaka, is winning her fifth Grand Slam title. But I won’t be backing her at 1/12.
I’ll be looking for value elsewhere in this French Open betting tips preview.
Swiatek to ease through her Italian Job
Betfred are offering 10/11 on their to be under 17.5 games in the match - I would be taking that, as I expect Swiatek to win 2-0 and pretty comfortably.
These two have met twice before, including at the 2022 US Open. Swiatek has won both meetings 6-3, 6-0 and 6-2, 6-1 - well within that under 17.5 games. In this tournament she has already won three times in matches with under 17.5 games.
As impressive as Paolini has been in Paris, her final opponent is way, way ahead of anything she has faced over the last fortnight.
If I had to set out the way I think this match will go, it would be for Swiatek to win the first set pretty comfortably, breaking Paolini’s resistance and running away with things.
With that in mind, I have picked out two prices of significant interest.
Betfair are offering 6/5 on either player to win the first set 6-2 or 6-3 and also 15/8 on either player to win the second set 6-0 or 6-1. They are worth serious consideration.
Back to the over and under games market, how about Betway’s 23/10 on under 15.5 games in the match? A 6-2, 6-1 success for Swiatek would secure that.
And, finally, William Hill’s #YourOdds combination at 4/1 for Swiatek to win 2-0 and to win each set 6-1 or 6-2 is also enticing.
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