League Two Play-Off Final Preview: Walsall v AFC Wimbledon
Gab Sutton 
All eyes will be on Wembley once again on Monday, as Walsall and AFC Wimbledon meet in the League Two Play-Off final.
AFC Wimbledon will be slight favourites with betting sites given Walsall's dismal second half of the season, but there won't be much between the two sides.
Free Bets EFL pundit Gab Sutton examines the two sides hoping to join Doncaster, Port Vale and Bradford in League One next season
Walsall
Why they will win it
They’re creating chances.
Since Mat Sadler switched from 3-1-4-2 to 3-4-2-1 for the final day victory at Crewe, his side have been more competitive in midfield, and created more chances.
They’d not actually played badly in the previous three league games, and found themselves on the wrong side of fine margins with a mere two points accrued, but the switch – giving up on the task of finding a strike-partner for Jamille Matt – has paid dividends.
The Saddlers (club nickname – not the family of the head coach or CEO) are playing with renewed confidence: too late in some ways, perfect timing in others.
Why they might not
Of the two participants, the pressure is far greater on Walsall because of the enormous lead they enjoyed in January, when they looked nailed-on for a top three berth.
So, if the Saddlers lose at Wembley, it’ll give way to an inquest as to how they threw away such a commanding position, making the psychology of the game feel more like avoiding discomfort than pursuing joy.
There’s pressure, too, on Wimbledon, but not to the same magnitude.
Wimbledon
Why they will win it
The defence.
Wimbledon have conceded the fewest goals in League Two this season (35), kept the joint-most clean sheets (21), and come into Monday’s game off the back of three crucial 1-0 victories over Grimsby, then Notts County in the Semi-Finals.
If you put stock into the theory that the ability to grind out narrow wins through sturdy foundations translates well to knockout football, then the Dons are your team to back.
Johnnie Jackson’s side boast one of the best goalkeepers in the division in Owen Goodman, who’s heroics at Meadow Lane was crucial to their progression to the Final.
Joe Lewis, meanwhile, has been among the fourth-tier’s most consistent defenders, while Sam Hutchinson has had the defiance to battle through serious health challenges to help his team to this stage.
It’s a tight-knit group, who has achieved a top seven berth on the strength of the collective – and that may just get them over the line.
Why they might not
The attack.
Wimbledon’s lack of creativity in the last three games can be explained somewhat by game state, because they didn’t need to score in 211 of those 270 minutes of football to achieve their targets – it was just about keeping the opposition out, which they did very well.
At the same time, unless they can continue to convert from a low volume of chances, they’re going to need to show more threat at Wembley.
Flying wing-back Josh Neufville has been outstanding for two thirds of this campaign, but found life tougher when doubled up on, influential target man Omar Bugiel has looked jaded of late, while talisman Matty Stevens has scored just once since mid-February.
The Dons have struggled to find players who can do a similar job to those three, and it may be that in each case the overreliance has taken it’s toll.
Verdict
Based on recent form, Wimbledon have been extremely strong defensively, but had real challenges going forward. Walsall, on the other hand, have been strong defensively themselves, if not to the same extent, whilst offering a lot more in attack.
The trade-off suggests a Saddlers victory, as they look to bank their outstanding work from the first half of the season, by putting their post-January drop-off firmly behind them.
