NFL Season Preview: Coach of the Year Odds
Adam Martin 
Its not just the players that get the plaudits in the NFL.
Coach of the Year is one of the main NFL awards at the end of the season, and the odds are already out among sports betting sites with just weeks to go until the start of the season.
Free Bets NFL expert Adam Martin has had look at the main contenders and why a lot of the big names have little chance of winning.
Main Contenders
The favourite in most NFL betting markets is the Chicago Bears new head coach Ben Johnson. Its exciting times again in Chicago thanks to the arrival of the Detroit Lions' ex-offensive co-ordinator. Johnson brings a thrilling form of offence to the windy city and that’s one of the big reasons for him being favourite.
The Bears have struggled in recent years and there is hope that he can turn things around quickly. Along with a defence that ranked 13th over last season it might not take too long for things to turn around.
Mike Vrabel is next in the betting at a top price of 10/1. The new head coach of the New England Patriots has a tough job on his hands but has already made big strides. The Patriots have been poor since Tom Brady left for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers back in 2020. However, there is hope for the team that finished with the fourth-worst record last season.
Drake Maye, their new quarterback, had a solid rookie year and he should improve. They have a reasonable defence anyway and have bought in some good offensive weapons as well. Vrabel has also shown in the past that he can turn organisations around. The Tennessee Titans were poor before he turned up but were the number one seed in the playoffs back in 2021.
Next up in the betting is Liam Coen. The Jaguars new head coach showed that he is a good offensive mind during his time in Tampa Bay. Another team that has struggled of late, the Jags need a pick me up and Coen could be it. He was largely credited with improving Baker Mayfield in Tampa Bay and the hope is he can do the same with a struggling Trevor Lawrence.
The next two in the betting are Pete Carroll and Dave Canales. Carroll has taken over as head coach of the Las Vegas Raiders and there is a ton of positivity around them now. It's going to be tough for them to make the playoffs but they should improve considerably this season. Carroll also has history of turning around franchises quickly.
Canales, however, is in his second year with the Carolia Panthers. At the end of last season, we saw quarterback Bryce Young starting to develop and so improvement should happen for the whole team. Both guys' top price is 15/1 and they round out the top five in the market.
Why the Best Candidates Rarely Win
Genuinely one of the most confusing things about an award like this is that the best coaches in the league rarely win it. In the last five years Kevin Stefanski has won twice, and Mike Vrabel, Kevin O’Connell and Brian Dabol have won it once. All four coaches are quality NFL standard coaches but none of them have gone on to be involved in a Superbowl.
On occasion the best coaches do win. John Harbaugh, Sean McVay and of course Bill Belichick have all won this award before. However, the recent winners have been coaches of teams that have seen large improvements and a winning record. The last coach to win the award with a losing record was Jimmy Johnson back in 1990.
When it comes to betting on this year’s market it is clear to see that there are patterns to take notice of. Firstly, you need to find a team that you think will have a winning record. Then you also need to find a team that has been poor in the previous season and will make a big jump forward this year.
Next Best – Liam Coen @ 11/1
We have already spoken a little bit about the new Jaguars head coach, but Liam Coen does have a good chance of winning this. His time in Tampa Bay showed that he can run a decent offence and the tools are in Jacksonville to do the same. Trevor Lawrence has underperformed since being drafted by the Jags, but Liam Coen can change that.
They already have one of the most exciting young wide receivers in the NFL in Brian Thomas, but they also have Travis Hunter. The Colorado star is a true unicorn who will play both on the offence, as a wide receiver, and defence as a cornerback. Hunter brings a massive jump in quality for the Jags in two positions that they needed it.
They have a nice strength of schedule which is ranked as the 8th easiest in the NFL and the division is up for grabs. The Texans dropped off last season and could continue to go that way. The Colts have quarterback problems, and the Titans are rebuilding. The Jags are not favourites but winning the division is possible. If they do that and get to the playoffs, then Coen has a very good chance of winning coach of the year.
Top Tip – Mike Vrabel @ 10/1
Getting a price like 10/1 for Mike Vrabel to be coach of the year is great. The ex-Titans coach has made big changes to the New England Patriots already and most of them are positive. Vrabel will bring a culture into New England that they haven’t had for a few years now and that will only be positive.
He is known for having a stout defence and bringing in veterans like Robert Spillane, Harold Landry and Carlton Davis will make a big difference. The offence has also had a makeover with Stefon Diggs leading the receivers and exciting rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson.
The Patriots have a favourable schedule with the second easiest in the NFL and having a winning record is very possible. They won’t win the AFC East because they have got the Buffalo Bills to go up against, but they can be competitive. Vrabel should make a big leap forward in his first year and 10/1 is a very nice price for a previous winner.
