NFL Season Preview: Defensive Player of the Year
Craig Jones 
With the season nearly here, it is time to look at some season long bets as the build up to the new NFL season on Free Bets continues!
Here we look in depth at the defensive player of the year market and give you the best bets for this season. We go through the top contenders, honourable mentions the next best and top tip.
Last year Patrick Surtain took home the award in a move away from history. Over the last five years he is the only player to win this award and not be an edge rusher/offensive linebacker.
NFL Defensive Player of the Year: Contenders
The four main guys are under 10/1 in this NFL betting market and are familiar names to most NFL fans. Myles Garrett, Aidan Hutchinson, Micah Parsons and T.J.Watt all have a good chance of winning this. However, there are genuine reasons to not back these guys and look for players further down the list that offer more value.
Myles Garrett has just signed a massive new deal with the Cleveland Browns this off-season. Although this might sound like good news, he spent most of the summer wanting to leave. He is now stuck on a team that is not expected to do much this year, and you must wonder if his desire to push himself will be the same as before.
Aidan Hutchinson has been amazing for the Lions ever since he was drafted back in 2022. Unfortunately, he had a horrific injury last season when he fractured his tibia and fibula. He had surgery and has been fully cleared to train with the team. Despite this it’s hard to believe that he will be able to perform at his absolute maximum till he has played some games. That will probably be enough to mean that he won’t win this award.
Micah Parsons is a top-quality edge rusher/ offensive linebacker hybrid who is the favourite with a lot of the bookmakers. Parsons has always been a consistent performer but is on a team that is likely to struggle this season. The Cowboy’s defence was poor last year and its unlikely to suddenly become amazing in one off season. Parsons has amassed 52.5 sacks in his four years playing and hasn’t won this award before. Averaging 13 sacks a season is good, but he will need to step up a lot to win this.
The final guy in the main four contenders is Pittsburgh Steelers edge rusher, T.J. Watt. The last time Watt won this award was back in 2021. As good as Watt is, it does feel like his best years are starting to be behind him. He managed to get 11.5 sacks last season which was the lowest he has had bar his rookie year and an injury riddled 2022. All off-season there has been contract negotiation issues and winning this award could be one step to far.
Honourable Mentions
It would be wrong not to speak about the 2024 winner of this award, Patrick Surtain. The Cornerback had a great season last year and another one is expected this year. However, it is unlikely that he will win again, and a top price of 40/1 is a big indicator of this.
The Denver Broncos defence should be very good and Surtain could easily be the best cornerback in the league. It’s just rare for cornerbacks to win the award anyway and to win it in back-to-back years would be breaking new ground.
There are a few more top end edge rushers that we need to speak about but are unlikely to win this award. Will Anderson had a great rookie year for the Texans, along with the team in general, only to then have a dip last year. It is expected that he and the Texans bounce back to better things this season but winning this could be a push.
Nick Bosa won this award back in 2022, with 18.5 sacks and having defensive co-ordinator, Robert Saleh back will be a huge plus for him. However, that year was a bit of an outlier when it comes to the number of sacks he got and its unlikely, he will get them again. On top of that the 49ers have lost some significant pieces on the defence and a bit of regression is expected from them.
The last honourable mention is for Trey Hendrickson. It’s been a tough off-season for Hendrickson, who has been having a ton of scrutiny about his contract negotiations. The Bengals have managed to get their main offensive pieces paid but Hendrickson is still waiting for his.
He managed to get 17.5 sacks in 2023 and then did the same again in 2024 which meant leading the league. He is threatening to hold out and miss time this season which is why he is a top price of 28/1 with some firms. If you believe that the Bengals will get the deal done, then he is a great price currently.
Next Best – Maxx Crosby @ 14/1
Maxx Crosby has had a decent NFL career so far and it looks like things might be about to pick up. The Las Vegas Raiders have been in the doldrums for a few years, but positivity is hitting Vegas. Veteran coach Pete Carroll is the new head coach and smash mouth football is what is expected.
Not only are the performances expected to get better, but Crosby has shown that he can put up decent numbers. He had 14.5 sacks in 2023 and with a renewed energy in Vegas hitting them numbers and more could be a possibility at a nice price.
Top Tip – Jared Verse @ 20/1
Jared Verse had a great rookie season for the Rams, and it is expected that he will progress in his second year. The stats don’t look that impressive, but he was instrumental in their defence. He only got 4.5 sacks but that easily could have been double.
The Rams are a team going in the right direction and their defensive front seven is young and elite. Verse has the confidence to really lead them and become a star edge rusher in this league.
He played all 17 games last season and hasn’t had any injury concerns going into this season. The price is decent at 20/1 and makes him a good candidate to bet on.
NFL Defensive Player of the Year Odds
For a full list of the odds from UK betting sites at the moment, check out below. Here you will see the players in contention for this award.
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