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Latest Profit & Loss Figures
Despite an excellent Saturday with winners at 9/4, 4/1 (twice), 9/2 and a 25/1 place, we ended the week with just a small profit of +£1.13.
- P/L for the week ending Sunday 7th September: +£1.13
- P/L for the year 2025 to date: +£9.45
- P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
- P/L since 1st September 2022: +£495.44
Alan Kelly's Tips - Saturday, September 13th
The final classic of the season takes place on Town Moor at Doncaster this afternoon and we have selections for all seven races due to be shown on ITV’s Racing, including the feature race at 3:40pm.
1.15pm Doncaster - Point Of Contact (Each-Way)
Narrowly beaten in handicaps at Thirsk and Goodwood last month, it is easy to make a strong case out for the Simon & Ed Crisford-trained Treble Tee in this £70k handicap run over one mile. Oisin Murphy’s mount is short enough at current odds of 9/4 however, in which case I would rather back Andrew Balding’s POINT OF CONTACT (Each-Way) at a double-figure price.
The Blue Point colt wasn’t beaten far on all three starts this season, including when just over a length behind Godolphin’s Fifth Column in a Heritage Handicap at York’s Ebor meeting last time. P J McDonald’s mount has every chance of making the frame at the very least.
Recommendation: Point Of Contact (Each-Way) - 10/1 with Paddy Power (4 places)
1:50pm Doncaster - Oxagon
Only five runners for this Group 2 juvenile contest but hard to rule out any of the quintet, although John & Sean Quinn’s easy Ayr winner Cape Ashizuri takes a big step-up in class following that debut maiden victory. Andrew Balding’s Acomb winner Gewan sets the standard, although slight preference is for John & Thady Gosden’s wide-margin Sandown winner OXAGON.
In beating Godolphin’s Look To The Stars (a winner at Kempton next time) it was more about the manner of Oxagon’s victory than the value of the form which impressed, the Frankel colt scooting clear of his rivals in the final furlong without being asked a serious question. Oisin Murphy takes over in the saddle this afternoon from claimer Luke Catton on a horse who looks a Group performer in the making.
Recommendation: Oxagon - 2/1 with BetVictor
2:05pm Chester - Hamish
A neck separated Military Academy and HAMISH in Goodwood’s Listed Tapster Stakes back in June with the Haggas runner coming out on top. On 3lb better terms, John & Thady Gosden’s charge has every chance of reversing that form, especially if the current going description of good, good to soft in places, remains in place.
Whether the forecast rain arrives on the Roodee or not, I expect the popular nine-year-old to come out on top once again, Cieren Fallon’s mount successful on both previous visits to the course.
Recommendation: Hamish - 11/10 with bet365
2:25pm Doncaster - Jakajaro (Each-Way)
As you would expect for a Portland Handicap, another seriously competitive renewal of this extended 5f sprint handicap. On a long short list that includes Geoff Oldroyd’s Air Force One and the hat-trick seeking pair of Abarama Gold and Eternal Sunshine, the vote goes to JAKAJARO (Each-Way) from the stable of Robert Cowell.
The Too Darn Hot gelding is on a losing run of 17 since winning at Dundalk 18 months ago but has been running well in defeat this season, in particular when finishing 3rd of 27 behind Two Tribes in the Stewards’ Cup last month. Off the same mark of 96, Jamie Spencer’s mount deserves to win a decent prize and his cause may be helped with the application of cheekpieces for the first time.
Recommendation: Jakajaro (Each-Way) - 16/1 with Paddy Power (6 places)
2:40pm Chester - Ndaawi
The winner of races at Goodwood and Epsom when trained by Andrew Balding as a two-year-old in 2022, this will be just the third run on the flat for the Gordon Elliott-trained NDAAWI, the first two efforts resulting in a 7th place finish in the Ascot Stakes last year before being virtually pulled-up in the Cesarewitch four months later.
The mount of Cieren Fallon has done little wrong over the smaller obstacles however, splitting the Mullins’ pair of Kargese and Absurde in the County Hurdle at this year’s Cheltenham Festival with subsequent Ebor winner Ethical Diamond back in fourth place. Successful in the Galway Hurdle on his most recent start (getting the race in the stewards’ room after failing by a head to concede a stone to the classy Helvic Dream), Ndaawi should take the world of beating in this £100k Heritage Handicap off a mark of 89 if able to translate his hurdles form to the flat.
I think this has been a long-range target for the Cracksman gelding, who is taken to beat Charlie Johnson’s frustrating Artisan Dancer, runner-up on his last three starts, the most recent when beaten a nose on the Knavesmire six days ago.
Recommendation: Ndaawi - 7/2 with Betfred
3:00pm Doncaster - Shadow Of Light (Nap)
Winner of the Middle Park and Dewhurst as a juvenile, Godolphin’s SHADOW OF LIGHT (Nap) has yet to get off the mark as a three-year-old, but this Group 2 Park Stakes looks an ideal opportunity for the son of Lope De Vega to get his season back on track before stepping back up into Group 1 company as the season comes to a close.
Billy Loughnane’s mount started 2025 with a more than respectable length third behind stablemate Ruling Court and Field Of Gold in the Betfred 2000 Guineas when possibly racing over a trip (one mile) a shade too far for Charlie Appleby’s charge. Fifth in Royal Ascot’s Commonwealth Cup on his next start, Shadow Of Dreams, despite finishing only fourth in Deauville’s Prix Jean Prat at the beginning of July, was beaten no more than half a length on the soft ground.
Today’s 7f trip and good to soft ground should prove ideal conditions for the selection, who may have most to fear from the Ralph Beckett-trained pair of Ten Bob Tony and King’s Gamble.
Recommendation: Shadow Of Light (Nap) - 7/4 with Coral
3:40pm Doncaster - Carmers
Ballydoyle trainer Aidan O’Brien will attempt to win his ninth St Leger this afternoon, although the record breaking handler still has some way to go to match the 16 victories achieved by John Scott in the race between the years 1827 to 1862. Dual Derby winner Lambourn and Goodwood Cup victor Scandinavia are joined by Great Voltigeur fourth Stay True in a three-pronged attack on the world’s oldest classic which dates back to 1776.
A Ballydoyle success is not guaranteed however, and I think the other Irish contender, Pat Twomey’s CARMERS, is capable of causing a bit of a surprise in the hands of jockey Billy Lee.
Unraced as a juvenile, the Wootton Bassett colt won his first three starts of 2025, culminating in a victory in the Queens Vase at Royal Ascot. The drop back to a mile and a half for York’s Voltigeur Stakes last month didn’t bring the horse’s stamina into play when staying on to finish second to a rejuvenated Pride Of Arras. Back to 1m 6f and on ground which should suit, Carmers gets the narrow vote over Scandinavia, an excellent spare ride for jockey Tom Marquand
Recommendation: Carmers - 5/1 with William Hill
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
You can follow Alan Kelly on Twitter for more racing insight.
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