Australian Open Tennis Betting Tips: Aryna Sabalenka v Madison Keys

January 24, 2025 at 3:36 pm GMT+0
Fact Checked by Will Jackson

Can Aryna Sabalenka unlock the plan of Madison Keys as she chase a three-peat in Melbourne? Graham Hardcastle has the latest tennis betting tips ahead of the final of the Australian Open on Saturday.

Check out our tennis betting tips for the Australian Open plus the top tennis betting offers from the best betting sites.


  • Aryna Sabalenka v Madison Keys  
  • Australian Open, Women’s Singles final
  • Saturday January 25, 2025, 8.30am UK 
  • Melbourne Park, Melbourne

Australian Open Final : Tennis Betting Tips

Aryna Sabalenka to win 2-0
Aryna Sabalenka v Madison Keys
Bet £10, Get £60 in Free Bets: Available to new customers only, aged 18 or over, residing in Great Britain. The promotion will run from 11th March 2025 until discontinued by Sporting Index Ltd. using its reasonable discretion, ("Promotion Period"). Offer can only be used once per customer. For full details of the offer, see "Bet £10. Get £60 in Free Bets. How Does It Work?" below. These terms and conditions are to be read with our General Terms And Conditions, listed further below.
Aryna Sabalenka but Madison Keys most aces
Aryna Sabalenka v Madison Keys
5/4
#Ad. Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of qualifying bets. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Registration required. Time limits and T&Cs apply.
At least one tie-break in the match
Aryna Sabalenka v Madison Keys
9/4
18+. Play Safe. Online only. For new UK register customers using promo code G40. Deposit & place £10 cash single bet (min odds 1/2) on sportsbook (excl. Virtuals). Get £40 in Free Bets (4x£10), valid for sportsbook (excl. Virtuals), 7 days expiry, must use in full (£10 each). Not valid with deposits via PayPal, Neosurf, Paysafe, Apple Pay, NETELLER, Skrill, ecoPayz, Kalibra/Postpay or WH PLUS Card. One per customer. Full T&Cs apply. www.gambleaware.org #ad
Aryna Sabalenka to win each set either 6-4, 7-5 or 7-6
Aryna Sabalenka v Madison Keys
4/1
Place a min £10 bet on Sportsbook on odds of min EVS (2.0), get £50 in Free Bet Builders, Accumulators or multiples to use on any sport. Rewards valid for 30 days. Only deposits via cards or Apple Pay will qualify. T&Cs apply. Please Gamble Responsibly.

Australian Open Betting Tips Preview

Aryna Sabalenka is chasing a bit of history Down Under. She is one win away from a third successive Australian Open and, if successful, would become the first woman to achieve that feat since Martina Hingis between 1997 and 1999. 

Standing in her way is American outsider Madison Keys, who has reached her second grand slam final and her first since the 2017 US Open, which she lost in straight sets to compatriot Sloane Stephens.

There’s no doubt Keys is dangerous, as she proved in her semi-final win against world number two Iga Swiatek, who she overpowered having gone a set down.

Aggressive Keys won the second set 6-1 and then triumphed in a 10-point tiebreaker, coming from behind in that as well.

But Belarusian Sabalenka - our pre-tournament title tip, which we got at 5/2 - is playing to a different level at the moment.

She breezed her semi-final against her best mate Paula Badosa 2-0 on Thursday, and I just can’t see her losing this one.

Instead of taking Sabalenka to win the match outright, at 3/10, I would be taking her at 10/11 to win by 2-0 sets score. That’s available via SportingIndex and provides some value. 

Sabalenka has won three of their five previous meetings, dating back to August 2018, in straight sets, including 6-4, 6-3 most recently on hard court in Beijing at the start of last October. 

And, since the start of this season in Brisbane, where she won the title, she has won 11 matches and has dropped only two sets in that time. Keys has also won her last 11 matches, winning a title in Adelaide, but has dropped seven sets in that time.

Keys to win the Ace battle but lose the war

There has only been one match in the tournament which has seen Aryna Sabalenka serve more Aces than her opponent, whereas Madison Keys has found consistent success in that regard.

With that in mind, a 5/4 bet365 bet builder on Sabalenka to win the match but for Keys to serve the most Aces is enticing. 

William Hill are offering 9/4 on there to be at least one tiebreak in the match, which is worth considering. When Sabalenka beat Keys 2-1 at the 2023 US Open, they played two in that match.

In this tournament, Sabalenka has played one tiebreak, whereas Keys has played two.

I have a feeling for Sabalenka to win the first set 6-4 correct score, so there’s two bets to finish this Australian Open tennis tips preview which reflect that.

The first is a #YourOdds 4/1 shot with betfair, which is for Sabalenka to win 2-0 and each set either 6-4, 7-5 or 7-6.

The final one is 19/4 with PricedUp on Sabalenka to win the opening set of  this contest 6-4 correct score.

Women's Australian Open Latest Odds


Top Tennis Betting Offers & Free Bets

Check out the top tennis free bets and betting offers available this week.

Advertiser Disclosure:

Content on this site will contain reference to products or services from one or more of our advertisers or partners. We may receive compensation when you view ads or click on links to those products or services.

Neptune Play logo
1
Neptune Play
Bet £20 and Get £20 + 20 Free spins
18+. New Players Only. Min. £20 deposit and bet on odds 1/1 or greater required. Extra bets and bonus spins are issued within 24 hours of the qualifying bet being settled. Extra bet valid for 14 days, stake not returned. Bonus spins are valid for 24 hours, only available on the Book of Dead game. Wagering Required on Bonus Spins: x15. Terms and Conditions apply
*New members only. £10+ bet on sportsbook (ex. virtuals) at 1.5 min odds, settled within 14 days. Free Bets: accept in 7 days, valid 7 days on sportsbook only. 2x£5 Free Bets for Bet Builder only. Stake not returned. T&Cs + deposit exclusions apply. **UK and Irish horse racing win/each-way bets placed after 9am on race day. Max enhancement £50k/day. Rules and exclusions apply. Click here for full T&Cs.. Bet Responsibly. GambleAware®. 18+
Tote logo
3
Tote
Bet £10 Get £50 in Bonuses
Claim Offer
New customers online only. Valid with code B10G50 on registration. Bet min £/€10 at odds of 1/1 (2.0) or greater across sports or racing (if EW then min £/€10 Win + £/€10 Place) within 7 days of registration. Receive £/€20 Tote Credit, £/€10 Sports Bet, 2 x £/€5 Sports Acca and 50 Free Spins. 7-day expiry. Qualifying bet is the first racing pool or sports bet added to the bet-slip. 18+. Full T&Cs apply. Gambleaware.org.Full T&Cs apply.
Betway logo
4
Betway
Up to £30 Matched Free Bet + £30 Uber Eats Voucher
*New UK customers only. Min Stake: £5. Maximum Free Bet: £30. First bet on a Football, Horse Racing, Tennis, Cricket or Basketball multiple with 3+ selections. Overall odds: 3.00 (2/1) or higher. Free Bets available upon settlement of the qualifying bet. 100 Free Spins on More Unusual Suspects (£0.10 per spin) credited on settlement of qualifying Acca bet. No wagering requirements on free spin winnings. Earn a £30 Uber Eats Voucher on successful Acca qualification. Debit Card deposit only (exclusions apply). This offer is valid 7 days from the new account being registered. 18+ GambleAware.org. Bet the Responsible Way. Full Terms apply
BoyleSports logo
5
BoyleSports
Bet £10 Get £30 in Free Bets + £10 Casino Bonus
18+. New UK customers (Excluding NI) only. £40 in FREE Bets (FB) as £30 in sports bets & a £10 casino bonus (CB). Min Deposit £10. Min stake £10. Min odds Evs. FB applied on 1st settlement of any qualifying bet. FB 7-day expiry. 1 FB offer per customer, household & IP address only. Account & Payment restrictions. 14 days to accept £10 CB, then active for 3 days. CB 5x wagering & max redeemable £100. Game restrictions apply. Cashed out/Free Bets won’t apply. 30 days to qualify. T&Cs Apply
Bet442 Sport logo
6
Bet442 Sport
Bet £20, Get £20 in Free Bets
18+. New customer only.Min deposit £20. Maximum one £10 Free Bet & two £5 Bet Builder Free Bets. Quailifying bet must be placed at odds of Evens (2.00) or greater. Paid as bonus tokens: Tokens 1 Min odds Req: 4/5 (1.800, token 2 & 3 are valid for Bet Builder only and are subject to min odds of 2/1 (3.00). T&C’s apply.
Betfred logo
7
Betfred
Bet £10, Get £50 in Free Bets
New customers only. Register, deposit with Debit Card, and place first bet £10+ at Evens (2.0)+ on Sports within 7 days to get 3 x £10 in Sports Free Bets & 2 x £10 in Acca Free Bets within 10 hours of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility exclusions & T&Cs Apply. Eligibility & payment exclusions apply. Full T&Cs apply.
Welcome bonus for new players only | Maximum bonus is 100% up to £100 | Min. deposit is £10 | No max cash out | Wagering is 40x bonus | Maximum bet with an active bonus is £5 | Eligibility is restricted for suspected abuse | Cashback is cash with no restrictions | Skrill & Neteller deposits excluded |
Grosvenor logo
9
Grosvenor
Double the Odds + 100 Free Spins when you deposit £20
New Customers by invite Only. Min Deposit £20 (exc PayPal & PaySafe). Max Bonus £30 (30x wagering & max wins £2000) & 100 Free Spins @10p playable on selected games (1x wagering on wins, max wins £500) + 100% Odds Boost Token. T&Cs apply.
Ladbrokes Sports logo
10
Ladbrokes Sports
Deposit £5, Get £20 In Sports Bets + 50 Free Spins
18+ New UK+IRE Customers only. Certain deposit methods & bet types excl. Min first £5+ deposit and bet within 14 days of account reg at min odds 1/2 to get 4x £5 free bets (selected sports markets only) and 50 Free Spins (value £0.10, selected games). Valid for 7 days, stake not returned. Restrictions + T&Cs apply.
Graham Hardcastle

Top Bookmakers

BETFRED
Betfred Sign-Up Offer and Promo Code
Read Review
Kwiff Logo
Kwiff Review, Free Bets and Betting Offers 2025
Read Review
Spreadex Sports Review & Features Insight
Read Review
bet365 logo
Bet365 Review and Feature Insights
Read Review
William Hill Sports Logo
William Hill Review & Sign Up Offer
Read Review
Best CopyBet Sign Up Offer & Bonuses 2025
Read Review
BetWay Review & User Opinion
Read Review
jeffbet Logo Webp
Jeffbet Review, Sign Up Offer & Bonuses for September 2025
Read Review
Pick your bet type