Bills v Chiefs Tips: NFL Week 11 Predictions & Betting Offers
Week 11 of the 2024 NFL season features several compelling matchups on Sunday, notably the AFC showdown at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park. The 8-2 Buffalo Bills will host the 9-0 Kansas City Chiefs, and we've prepared our Bills v Chiefs tips in the form of a bet builder.
According to leading UK betting sites, the undefeated Chiefs are slight 2.5-point underdogs, with a total points line set at 46.5. This game marks the second meeting between Kansas City and Buffalo this year; the Chiefs edged out the Bills 27-24 at Highmark Stadium in the AFC Divisional Playoffs on January 21.
Bills v Chiefs Tips: 6/1 Bet Builder for NFL Week 11
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Josh Allen Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
The Chiefs' defence ranks among the best in the NFL. Kansas City concedes just 17.9 points per game (5th in the league), 83.2 rushing yards per game (3rd), and 3.7 yards per carry (2nd).
However, their pass defence has its weaknesses. The Chiefs are 14th in passing yards allowed (206.7 per game) and rank 26th in sacks (19). They’ve conceded 18 offensive touchdowns this season, with 13 of those coming through the air.
With this in mind, we’ll kick off our Bills v Chiefs tips by backing Josh Allen to throw at least two touchdown passes. Allen has been enjoying a strong season, throwing for 2,281 yards, 17 touchdowns, and only four interceptions across ten games.
After four consecutive weeks of throwing for at least two touchdowns, Allen went 22-of-37 for 280 yards, two interceptions, and no touchdowns last Sunday. Despite this, the Bills secured a 30-20 win over the Indianapolis Colts, and Allen will aim to rebound against the reigning Super Bowl champions.
Kareem Hunt Anytime Touchdown Scorer
The Bills have also conceded 13 receiving touchdowns this season. Notably, they have allowed the most receiving touchdowns to opposing running backs in the league (5).
As such, we anticipate the Chiefs will rely heavily on Kareem Hunt in this matchup. The Bills’ run defence has been shaky, allowing 123.2 rushing yards per game (15th in the NFL) and 4.9 yards per carry (29th).
Hunt has scored five touchdowns, all on the ground, in six games for the Chiefs this season. With Isiah Pacheco sidelined due to injury, Hunt has stepped up to lead the Chiefs’ rushing attack, proving his value as a one-time Pro Bowl running back.
Last week, Hunt managed just 35 yards on 14 carries but contributed seven receptions for 65 yards, helping the Chiefs secure a 16-14 victory over the Denver Broncos. Hunt’s ability to catch passes out of the backfield makes him a dual threat, and he stands a strong chance of finding the end zone against the Bills.
Kareem Hunt Over 60.5 Rushing Yards
The Denver Broncos give up just 3.9 yards per carry and 103.5 rushing yards per game, making this a much more favourable matchup for Kareem Hunt and the Chiefs. Kansas City head coach Andy Reid is likely to rely heavily on Hunt, putting the ball in his hands whenever possible.
As mentioned earlier, Hunt managed 35 yards on 14 carries against Denver last week while the Chiefs were playing catch-up throughout the game. In each of the previous four games, Hunt has had at least 21 carries, and in three of those outings, he posted 78 or more rushing yards.
The Bills, on the other hand, have struggled against the run recently, allowing 270 rushing yards across their last two games. Last Sunday, Colts running back Jonathan Taylor carried the ball 21 times for 114 yards against Buffalo. Since Week 5, the Bills have recorded the 12th-highest missed tackle rate in the league.
