Chiefs v Bills Tips: NFL AFC Championship Predictions & Betting Offers
The 2025 NFL Playoffs Championship Sunday is here, featuring the AFC Championship Game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, and we’ve put together our Chiefs v Bills tips in the form of a bet builder.
The Chiefs opened as 2-point home favourites with a total of 48.0 points on leading UK betting sites. Currently, Kansas City is a 1.5-point favourite, and the total has moved slightly to 48.5 points.
Kansas City and Buffalo met earlier this season in Week 11, where the Bills triumphed 30-21 as 2.5-point home favourites. The Bills avenged their 27-24 defeat to Kansas City in the 2024 Divisional Round.
Chiefs v Bills Tips: 9/4 Bet Builder for AFC Championship Game
We’ve crafted our Chiefs v Bills bet builder using Betfair, widely recognised as one of the best NFL betting sites for its excellent range of markets.
You can combine our Chiefs v Bills tips with Betfair sign up offer to claim £50 in free bets when you place a qualifying £10 bet.
Josh Allen Over 9.5 Rushing Attempts
The Bills dominated the Denver Broncos 31-7 in the wild-card round, with Josh Allen rushing eight times for 46 yards while throwing for 272 yards and two touchdowns. Last week, Buffalo edged out the Baltimore Ravens, despite Allen managing just 127 passing yards.
Baltimore outgained Buffalo 416-273 in total yards, but the Bills capitalised on a 3-0 turnover advantage. Allen showcased his versatility, scoring two rushing touchdowns on 10 carries and proving once again how dangerous he is on the ground.
Allen recorded 102 carries for 531 yards and 12 touchdowns during the regular season. In Week 11, when the Bills defeated the Chiefs at Highmark Stadium, he rushed 12 times for 55 yards and a touchdown.
Kansas City’s defense excelled in the regular season, conceding only 19.2 points per game (4th in the NFL), alongside 101.8 rushing yards (8th) and 218.8 passing yards (18th). However, Buffalo managed to post 30 points against the Chiefs through a measured and disciplined strategy, with Allen’s mobility playing a key role.
Allen thrives on physicality and frequently relies on his rushing ability. When the Chiefs knocked Buffalo out of last season’s playoffs, he had 12 carries for 72 yards and two touchdowns.
With one of the league’s strongest offensive lines supporting him, Allen often has the time to assess and exploit defensive gaps. Expect him to utilise his legs in this matchup, making Josh Allen Over 9.5 Rushing Attempts an ideal starting point for our Chiefs v Bills tips.
Xavier Worthy Over 4.5 Receptions
The Chiefs secured a 23-14 victory over the Houston Texans in the divisional round, with Travis Kelce once again shining in the postseason, recording seven receptions for 117 yards and a touchdown.
The Bills are well aware of Kelce’s threat. They managed to hold the four-time All-Pro tight end to just eight yards on two receptions in their Week 11 encounter. Wide receiver Xavier Worthy stepped up in that game, catching four of his five targets for 61 yards and a touchdown.
Since then, Worthy has been a consistent contributor, logging at least six receptions in seven consecutive games. During this stretch, he has been targeted 56 times, underlining his growing importance to the Chiefs’ passing attack.
Against the Texans last week, Worthy recorded five catches for 45 yards. The rookie, who finished the regular season with 59 receptions for 638 yards and six touchdowns, has proven to be a reliable weapon for Patrick Mahomes.
The Bills struggled against the pass during the regular season, ranking 24th in passing yards allowed (226.1 per game) and 29th in receptions allowed (23.3 per game). To make matters worse, safety Taylor Rapp is out for the AFC Championship Game, and cornerback Christian Benford remains in concussion protocol.
With Buffalo’s injury-depleted secondary likely to focus on containing Travis Kelce, Xavier Worthy should find plenty of opportunities to make an impact.
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