Chiefs v Texans Tips: NFL Week 16 Predictions & Betting Offers
Week 16 of the 2024 NFL season has arrived, featuring two games on Saturday, including an AFC showdown at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City. Houston and Kansas City are vying for playoff positions, and we’ve prepared our Chiefs v Texans tips in the form of a bet builder.
The Texans face the Chiefs for the first time in two years, with Kansas City aiming for its fourth consecutive win over Houston. Leading UK betting sites list the Chiefs as 3.5-point home favourites, with the total set at 42.5 points.
Chiefs v Texans Tips: 11/2 Bet Builder for NFL Week 16
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Chiefs v Texans Under 42.5 Points
Although the last five meetings between Houston and Kansas City have gone over the total, we’ll begin our Chiefs v Texans tips by backing the under. Both defensive units have been outstanding this season, and we anticipate a similar showing in Week 16.
The Chiefs boast the NFL's fourth-best scoring defence, conceding just 18.5 points per game. They rank third in rushing yards allowed (91.9 per game) and 14th in passing yards allowed (215.0), giving up 17 points or fewer in their last three games.
Meanwhile, the Texans rank ninth in scoring defence, allowing 21.4 points per game. They have been solid against the run, conceding 105.6 rushing yards per game (10th), while their pass defence ranks sixth, yielding just 196.9 yards per game. Over the past two weeks, they’ve surrendered a total of 32 points, defeating Jacksonville 23-20 and Miami 20-12.
The Chiefs are on a four-game winning streak, averaging 22.2 points per game during that run. Their scoring offence is ranked 12th in the league, averaging 23.5 points per game, with the Texans close behind at 23.4 points per game.
Both teams are likely to find it challenging to consistently move the chains. With both offences ranking in the bottom half of the league in red-zone efficiency, coupled with cold weather conditions, this matchup strongly favours the under.
Joe Mixon Under 17.5 Rushing Attempts
Not only do the Chiefs concede just 91.9 rushing yards per game, but they also allow a mere 3.9 yards per carry, tied for second in the NFL. This spells trouble for the Texans’ ground game, especially with Joe Mixon dealing with an ankle injury.
Although Mixon was limited in Thursday's practice, he is expected to play against the Chiefs. The Pro Bowl running back struggled against Miami in Week 15, managing only 23 yards on 12 carries.
In Week 13, Mixon excelled against Jacksonville’s struggling defence, racking up 101 yards on 20 carries. However, he racked up just 22 yards on 14 carries against Tennessee in Week 12.
Given Mixon’s ankle issue and Kansas City’s formidable run defence, the Texans are likely to rely on C.J. Stroud and their passing attack. Stroud has attempted 33 or more passes in four of his last five games.
Patrick Mahomes Over 0.5 Interceptions
Patrick Mahomes sustained an ankle injury during last week’s 21-7 victory over Cleveland. However, after participating fully in Thursday’s practice, he is set to start under centre when the Texans visit.
Mahomes has thrown for 22 touchdowns and 11 interceptions this season. While he hasn’t been picked off in four consecutive games, that streak could end against Houston’s formidable passing defence.
The Texans boast the league's best opposing passer rating (79.6). They rank second in both sacks (45) and interceptions (19), having notched at least one interception in five consecutive games, with an impressive total of 11 during that span.
Mahomes will face significant pressure in this clash. With his mobility potentially hindered by the ankle injury, the Texans will likely aim to exploit any vulnerabilities in his game.
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