League One/Two Play-Off Preview 24/25: Who Wins Promotion?
Gab Sutton 
Birmingham and Wrexham have already booked their places in the Championship for next season, leaving four sides to fight it out for a place in the second tier of English football.
Stockport, Charlton, Wycombe and Leyton Orient will compete in the League One play-off semi-finals starting later this week after missing out on automatic promotion spots.
Free Bets' EFL expert, Gab Sutton, has taken a closer look at each side competing over the semi-finals in the next week or so and make his predictions on how things will shape up.
League One Play-Off Odds
Here's a look at how online betting sites are pricing up the four sides competing in the League One play-offs.
Stockport
Why they will win it
Winning mentality. Stockport are a club that’s been used to winning for seven years, having won three titles (and counting) in that time and attained two Play-Off finishes. Quite simply, it’s a club that knows how to win, and a team that’s done it 25 times in the league already.
Why they might not
Because of how quickly they’ve won their promotions, largely due to generous investment from local businessman Mark Stott, they’ve not had much time to evolve the squad. There are players in that group who have performed incredibly well, yet probably wouldn’t be there given the extra year to recruit.
The manager
Dave Challinor. Losing star on-loan forward Louie Barry in January could have been a crushing blow that ended their promotion push under a different manager, but ‘Chally’ knows how to adapt. He nudged mobile target man Kyle Wootton and athletic forward Isaac Olaofe closer together in response, and they’ve forged a fantastic pairing in the second half of the season
Best player
Oli Norwood. At this stage of his career, the three-time former Championship promotion winner needs legs around him, which he has in Will Collar and Owen Moxon, but technically he’s on another level. Norwood dictates games delightfully, and his switches of play are quite something to behold.
Verdict
Will beat Leyton Orient at Edgeley Park, only to just fall short at Wembley, but with plenty of pride, and optimism for the future.
Charlton
Why they will win it
Arguably the most complete squad, the best form from December onwards, and the manager with the highest pedigree at this level. It’s hard to see a clear weakness.
Why they might not
Away form is far from horrendous but not flawless either: they’ve lost nine times on the road this season, scoring a modest 29 goals, and tend to drop points travelling to the better teams in the league. However, they also won 4-0 at Wycombe on Easter Monday – so who are they facing in the semis again?
The manager
Fiery, passionate and demanding, Nathan Jones knows how to rally the troops, and let his emotions show in those big moments – like post-match of February’s crucial 2-1 victory at Leyton Orient, in which they trailed going into injury-time. There may be a handful of players who’d prefer a manager who relaxes them for those high-stakes games, but Jones would argue his animated style can be a net positive – and the results back that up.
Best player
Kayne Ramsay’s been one of the best right-backs in League One this season, Lloyd Jones, the same in central defence. Conor Coventry and Greg Docherty bring control and dynamism respectively in midfield, while Thierry Small and Tyreece Campbell offer flair and pace out wide – and then there’s Matty Godden banging them in. So take your pick! We’ll go with Jones. The club named him POTY – and who are we to argue?
Verdict
Winners.
Wycombe
Why they will win it
Richard Kone. The 21-year-old has enjoyed a phenomenal 18-month rise, having played in the lower echelons of non-league previously with Athletic Newham, but been a breath of fresh air to League One with his pace, strength, and instinctive finishing that’s seen him score 18 league goals. The Ivorian has the capability to decide any game.
Why they might not
Form. It’s comfortably the weakest of the four, with a modest 25 points accrued from 17 games since Mike Dodds replaced Matt Bloomfield in February, as the Chairboys dropped out of the top two. And, whereas each of those seven wins have come against lower, middling and out-of-form sides, the three defeats with which they finished the league campaign have come against each of their Play-Off competitors.
The manager
Mike Dodds has a fantastic coaching reputation, especially in the development scene, but it’s possible the task of coming straight into a promotion race, cold and unproven, has been a bit too much for him, in contrast with other managers in the Play-Offs – Dave Challinor, Nathan Jones and Richie Wellens – who have all delivered in the high stakes before.
Best player
Richard Kone. But we’ve already mentioned him above, so we’ll go to on-loan Cam Humphreys. A strong runner with a lovely left foot, and a developing right, the 21-year-old has shown valuable versatility this season, offered bags of energy and contributed some good numbers with seven goals and six assists – enough to interest Kieran McKenna as parent club Ipswich return to the Championship.
Verdict
Defeat to Charlton in the semis.
Leyton Orient
Why they will do it
Their performance levels have always been high. Leyton Orient had a hapless start to the season, finding themselves in the bottom four as late as November, but they knew they were playing far better than results were suggesting. And, a third of the way into the campaign, things clicked in the final third with Dan Agyei, Charlie Kelman and Tottenham loanee Jamie Donley all catching fire, coupled with the other Spurs borrow, ‘keeper Josh Keeley, keeping nine clean sheets in 10 at one stage.
Why they might not
Lack of quality in depth, in comparison with the teams around them. Stockport’s owner has a net wealth of up to £800M, Wycombe have a Kazakhstani billionaire owner, and Charlton are a former Premier League club – so it’s hardly surprising.
Head coach
Richie Wellens. Likes attacking football, but also knows how to adapt stylistically to get results. After winning League Two titles with Swindon and the O’s, the Mancunian will be delighted to have proven his managerial class at League One level, working under the stable ownership of Nigel Travis – something he didn’t have under Abdallah Lemsagam at Oldham, Lee Power at Swindon or David Blunt at Doncaster.
Best player
Ethan Galbraith. There’s a reason Wellens has signed him for Doncaster and Leyton Orient. The 23-year-old possesses exquisite technique and vision, yet crucially, not in a way that hinders the tempo of the team’s play, which is often seen in players with similar ability. The Northern Irishman has bags of energy, and despite his gift is very much a team player, happy to do a job at right-back where needed, even if he prefers playing in midfield. If Orient win the Play-Offs, Galbraith will have had a lot to do with it.
Verdict
Getting into the Play-Offs, after results went against them at the start, was a fantastic effort – though they may just miss out to Stockport in the semis.
League Two Play-Off Odds
Here's a look at how online betting sites are pricing up the four sides competing in the League One play-offs.
Walsall
Why they will win it
In terms of performances, they haven’t finished the season too badly. Before winning 1-0 at Crewe on the final day, they took two points from three games against Harrogate, Newport and Accrington Stanley, when they deserved at least five on the balances of play, and could have taken nine on another day. So, if they can find that clinical edge in front of goal, they could rediscover their sumptuous form from the first half of the season.
Why they might not
Walsall finished the season with three wins in 22, and the pain of missing out on automatic promotion in those circumstances, let alone after their last game finished due to a goal at Valley Parade, is a lot to bounce back from. Concerns over a psychological hangover are valid, and are what make the Saddlers by far the least-backed team.
Head coach
In the first half of the season, Mat Sadler demonstrated his potential as an outstanding technical coach who implemented some clear patterns of play and built a team that could create chance after chance. After star on-loan forward Nathan Lowe was recalled by Stoke in January, however, Sadler could be questioned in areas such as adaptability and motivation.
Best player
Taylor Allen. Whereas right wing-back Connor Barrett likes to attack the flank directly, his left-sided correspondent Liam Gordon tends to cut inside and link-up with… well, it used to be Nathan Lowe. Anyway, Allen’s been a key outlet on the overlap from left centre-back, and has been fantastic from set pieces, grabbing 10 goals and seven assists.
Verdict
They might respond from that massive psychological setback, and if they do it’ll be almost more impressive than going up straightforwardly, but defeat to Chesterfield feels more likely.
Notts County
Why they will win it
They’re the best rounded team in the Play-Offs. The Magpies have massively improved defensively thanks to the additions of Matty Platt and Jacob Bedeau in defence, and Alex Bass in goal. Equally, they’ve also got top creators and goalscorers in Jodi Jones, David McGoldrick and Alassana Jatta, any one of whom could decide a game single-handedly, as well as a prodigious midfield talent in Tottenham loanee, George Abbott.
Why they might not
They also have a few holes in certain areas of the XI, and there’s a feeling that they haven’t been playing particularly well of late. Some of that might be a reflection on the expectations that naturally come with being one of the biggest clubs in the league, but a return of four points from their last six games adds weight.
Head coach
Stuart Maynard. Has emphatically corrected much of last season’s defensive troubles without compromising the style, and still with Notts County being statistically one of the most creative teams in the league. It hasn’t been mesmerising all season, but the progress is clear to see.
Best player
George Abbott. Playing in a two-man midfield, the 19-year-old has had to display a real maturity to his game in terms of positional awareness to keep the shape, whilst also demonstrating some lovely touches, exquisite passing – and the odd wonder-strike thrown in for good measure.
Verdict
The best team in the Play-Offs: winners.
Wimbledon
Why they will win it
The defence. Wimbledon’s promotion bid has been a great collective effort this season, and it’s why they’ve conceded the fewest goals in the division – 35 goals in 46 games. We can pick out individual contributions, like that of defender Joe Lewis, but as a unit Johnnie Jackson’s compact side have been a very tough nut to crack.
Why they might not
The attack. They’ve relied on Omar Bugiel for target man prowess, and Matty Stevens for goals, because neither of their other strikers have performed to the same level, but it’s meant both could be burnt out, right when it matters most. Plus, the conservatism that’s at times been an organisational strength could also be a weakness if they invite good teams onto them.
The manager
After a challenging first season in charge, Johnnie Jackson has delivered significant progress in the last two campaigns with successive Play-Off pushes, and the top seven finish attained the second time around. A minority feel his job should depend on promotion, but for a club that’s been financially rebuilding from the expense of the Plough Lane return in 2020, existing achievements look reasonable.
Best player
Josh Neufville. It’s been a squad of 7/10s and 8/10s this season, rather than a handful of 9s and 10s, so the Dons’ ‘best player’ could be almost anyone. But Neufville could take on extra importance for what could be a defensive gameplan in the 1st leg at Meadow Lane, because the right wing-back’s pace and strength makes him a vital outlet.
Verdict
It’s difficult to see Wimbledon winning at Meadow Lane, because they’re likely to employ a conservative approach for the 1st leg, whereas it’s less difficult to see Notts County winning at Plough Lane if they need to. For that reason, the Dons might fall short in the Semi-Finals.
Chesterfield
Why they will do it
Form – they’re the only one that has it! It’s just one defeat in 13 league games for Chesterfield, who have gone from being 16th with games in hand in March to 7th. By contrast, Wimbledon have two wins in nine, Notts County have one win in six - and opponents Walsall have three wins in 22!
Why they might not
As much as they have experience and quality, there are areas of their XI that are in question generally, and others that could be susceptible to pace and/or swift link-up play.
The manager
It’s hard to beat Paul Cook in terms of knowhow, with the Liverpudlian having won four promotions as a manager in a decorated career in English football. He’s extremely passionate and will get his players running through brick walls for him.
Best player
Player of the Year, Armando Dobra. Chesterfield’s chances could depend on whether the agile Albanian is fit to play a part in the Play-Offs, after scoring nine goals for the Spireites.
Verdict
Momentum could see Chesterfield past Walsall, but they may fall short in the final against a side that’s sustained their challenge over the course of the campaign.
