Gab Sutton EFL Predictions & Betting Tips
Gab Sutton 
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EFL expert Gabriel Sutton will continue to bring you his betting tips and EFL predictions for every round of the new season here on Freebets.
His knowledge and insight on everything from the Championship to League One and League Two is unrivalled, so expect detailed betting tips and analysis from all three competitions.
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Gab Sutton’s EFL Predictions & Betting Tips
EFL pundit Gab Sutton is back with his best bets for the weekend’s action, which you can use alongside our range of football betting sites ahead of the weekend.
Middlesbrough v Plymouth
- Over 2.5 goals
With Middlesbrough and Plymouth Argyle being the chasers rather than the chasee’s in their respective vicinities of the Championship table, Good Friday’s clash at the Riverside Stadium has the makings of a thriller.
Boro are oozing with individual quality, have been among the most creative sides in the division this season and, at their best, one of the strongest in general.
On the other hand, Michael Carrick’s side also have a soft underbelly, a passivity that could make them susceptible to a side that’s fighting for survival with everything on the line.
Visitors Argyle, meanwhile, would have been six points adrift and all but down had they lost to Sheffield United on Saturday, but late goals from Ryan Hardie and Muhamed Tijani turned the game on it’s head to keep their season alive.
That unexpected stay of execution gives the Green Army fresh belief as they travel to Teesside, and with forwards like Hardie and Mustaphu Bundu, who have enjoyed some good form in the second half of the season, they do have the means to cause problems.
A game of three or more goals seems extremely likely, in a game that could feel more like basketball than football.
Stoke v Sheffield Wednesday
- Stoke to win
Three wins in six, with just one defeat, has seen Stoke put some much-needed daylight between themselves and the Championship relegation zone, with Mark Robins’ side going into the last four games with a precious five-point gap.
The Potters now have a golden opportunity to hit the 50-point mark on Good Friday with victory over Sheffield Wednesday, who are safe from relegation and out of the Play-Off equation, both in all but mathematics.
In fact, dating from 2nd January, the Owls have been one of the league’s most out-of-form sides, accruing a mere 17 points from as many games, with only Blackburn, Derby and Luton amassing inferior returns (and just by a couple of points).
The Steel City outfit had been playing well in the first half of the season, with coach Danny Rohl maximizing limited resources under Dejphon Chansiri’s much criticized ownership regime.
The South Yorkshire side didn’t then strengthen their squad in key areas in January, such as central defence and the centre-forward position, which has hamstrung them at either end, while the delays to payment of wages has put more focus on matters off the field than on them.
So, yes, Wednesday have been a better team than Stoke over the course of the season, but in terms of the permutations, there’s far more reason to believe the hosts have the incentive to get the victory that would nudge them towards the line of safety.
The Staffordshire outfit have been putting in some bright performances of late, and are enjoying some great combination play down the left-hand side between Eric Bocat and Bae Jun-Ho.
Shrewsbury v Wigan
- Wigan to win to nil
Shrewsbury staved off confirmation of their inevitable relegation for another week last Saturday, when they managed a 1-1 draw at Lincoln.
For Michael Appleton’s men to stay up, however, they’d need to win all four of their remaining games, and hope Burton Albion and Bristol Rovers lose all five and four respectively, all with a 19-goal swing between themselves and the former.
In short, it’s unrealistic, so the Shrews are preparing themselves for life in League Two next season, hoping for news of the takeover that would bring them new investment, fresh ideas and renewed hope for the next chapter – after a decade in League One.
Effectively relegated, there’s not a huge incentive for Salop, whereas visitors Wigan have the opportunity to take one giant stride towards safety.
The Latics already have a five-point cushion and, with Bristol Rovers facing an ominous trip to Wrexham that same day, a win in Shropshire could put them as many as eight points clear, and keep them at least four places above the drop zone.
The Lancashire outfit have found some solidity under Ryan Lowe, even if they’re yet to win under his guidance, and three consecutive draws have just kept the drop zone at arms’ length.
Goalkeeper Sam Tickle can keep opponents at arm’s length, too, being one of the division’s most accomplished shot-stoppers.
Grimsby v Swindon
- Grimsby to win
Grimsby drew 2-2 at Harrogate last Saturday, having held a two-goal lead going into the final five minutes.
On the one hand, it shows they’ve come a long way that they’re now disappointed with an away point, but on the other, the dropped points lent an opportunity to Colchester to close the gap to seventh to only one point, and they did just that with their victory at Newport.
The Mariners are in good form, though, with 10 points accrued from their last five games, and they do tend to do the business at home to the teams below them, with eight wins in 11 against bottom half opposition.
Swindon, though, have pushed into the top half, having begun the campaign as a relegation concern, with Ian Holloway doing great work to rally the troops and turn things around – in fact, only Bradford have accrued more points since early December.
Grimsby, however, are an extremely well-coached side and have come on leaps and bounds this year, both individually and collectively.
The likes of Cameron McJannet, George McEachran and Jason Svanthorsson have all proved inspired recruits, while Harvey Rodgers, Denver Hume, Kieran Green and Evan Khouri have progressed, to different extents, from where they were last season.
With that in mind, the hosts have a good chance of getting the win they need to stay in the top seven – and possibly extend the gap to eighth, depending on Colchester’s result against Crewe.
Tranmere v Doncaster
- Doncaster to win
Doncaster’s 1-1 draw at Salford last time out extended their unbeaten run to seven league games, with one defeat in 11 now for Grant McCann’s side.
In an automatic promotion race in which everyone bar Port Vale seems to be riddled with inconsistency at the business end, keeping a steady hand and not losing many games certainly helps Donny’s position – even if they currently find themselves outside the top three on goal difference.
McCann switched to a back-three at the Peninsula Stadium, dropping midfielder Owen Bailey and full-back Adam Senior into a defence that was missing key centre-backs Jay McGrath and Joseph Olowu.
However, McGrath is hoping to be back fit for the trip to Prenton Park, depending on how he feels after injection, and there’s a possibility that the manager will revert to his preferred 4-2-3-1, with the young centre-back alongside Tom Anderson, and Bailey moving back into midfield where he can influence things.
The obvious catch to betting on the visitors, of course, is that Tranmere are a completely different proposition under Andy Crosby, having amassed 16 points from his first nine games in charge; automatic promotion form.
However, they’ve faced two of the six contenders for automatic promotion in that period, drawing with Port Vale and managing a smash-and-grab victory at a Bradford side missing key players, so it’s possible they may still be a level off the very best teams in the league.
And, while there’s a huge incentive for Tranmere to get the win that could secure their safety if Carlisle lose to Port Vale, there’s also a huge incentive for their visitors.
Doncaster will move into the top three with a win, if Walsall fail to beat Harrogate, or if Bradford fail to beat Notts County on Thursday night – that would put them right in the driving seat going into Easter Monday.
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The Biggest EFL Matches This Week
Here are the biggest matches to keep an eye on in the EFL this week:
- Thursday - Stevenage v Birmingham (League One)
- Friday - Stoke v Sheffield United (Championship)
- Saturday - Luton v Coventry, QPR v Burnley (Championship), Bristol Rovers v Reading, Leyton Orient v Wycombe, Wrexham v Charlton (League One), Wimbledon v Port Vale, Doncaster v Bradford, Harrogate v Notts County (League Two)
- Sunday - Stevenage v Rotherham, Birmingham v Mansfield (League One)
Gab Sutton’s EFL 2024/25 Antepost Picks
Following the opening weekend of 2024-25′s EFL action, EFL pundit Gab Sutton gives us his five tips…
Championship
Promotion
Despite being held to a 3-3 draw by Portsmouth on the opening day, Leeds are favourites for promotion and can be backed at Evens, although Daniel Farke’s side are without the prodigious talents of Archie Gray and the individual craft of Crysencio Summerville, now both have left for London.
Elsewhere, Burnley are into 5/4 after that statement 4-1 opening day victory at Luton on Monday, thanks to an incisive, clinical display from Scott Parker’s men.
The Hatters, themselves, are down to 13/5 after their disappointing start, while Middlesbrough, West Brom and Sunderland are up to 3/1, 7/2 and 4/1 respectively after opening day victories.
For Boro, it’s all about Emmanuel Latte Lath, who built on his stunning form from the last quarter of last season by getting off the mark against Swansea, and could be among the top goalscorers in the division this term.
The Baggies may have a goalscorer of their own, though, in Josh Maja, who displayed impeccable poaching instincts to bag a hat-trick in the 3-1 victory at QPR.
Sunderland need a marksman, but they have pretty much everything else if Jobe Bellingham and Jack Clarke hit top form.
The one to watch, though, is Sheffield Wednesday, after Danny Rohl’s side stormed to a 4-0 opening day victory over Plymouth Argyle.
Bigger tests are surely to come for the Owls, but in terms of pressing, patterns of play, co-ordination of movement, organisation, pace and guile, they had it all and could be a serious bet at 8/1 in some places.
Relegation
Argyle look vulnerable after that trouncing at Hillsborough, and while it’s only day one, it was hard to see what they were trying to do – it’s not as if they were pressing high, or looking after the ball well, or being aggressive in their defensive third then flying forward on the counter.
It was difficult to see a discernible game plan from Wayne Rooney’s side, who could be a bet for the drop at 7/4.
Oxford were favourites before the season began but their convincing 2-0 victory over play-off aspirants Norwich has nudged them to 6/4, the same price as Argyle, and those odds will lengthen with more performances like that – especially with the likes of Cameron Brannagan and Mark Harris making the step up seamless on early evidence.
Cardiff have shortened to 3/1, perhaps surprisingly, after that 2-0 defeat to Sunderland, despite signing the likes of Calum Chambers and Anwar El Ghazi.
Millwall, meanwhile, are 10/3 for the drop after losing 3-2 to Watford: the Lions will need a target man if they want to play the way Neil Harris likes.
Preston North End, though, look value at 10/3 after parting company with manager Ryan Lowe after the opening night’s 2-0 defeat to Sheffield United – for the Lilywhites, it all hangs on who they appoint next.
Derby are a bet at 7/2 after producing one of the worst performances of the opening weekend in their 4-2 loss at Blackburn, who are now up to 9/2, following a summer of trepidation.
League One
Promotion
Despite dropping points on the opening day, with a 1-1 draw with Reading, Birmingham remain firm favourites for promotion at 4/6: understandable, with the quality of their squad and resources.
Bolton are 23/10 second-favourite after beginning with a 2-1 victory at Leyton Orient, although Ian Evatt’s side will need to improve their performance levels, after relying on goalkeeper Nathan Baxter to bail them out at Brisbane Road.
Rotherham are 3/1 despite an opening day 1-0 defeat at Exeter, while Wrexham are fourth favourites at 16/5 following the 3-2 triumph over Wycombe, but neither of those quite look the value picks.
Instead, Huddersfield at 10/3 hold appeal after a statement victory at recent play-off competitors Peterborough and, with so many moving parts of the squad, Michael Duff has shown his managerial class to deliver such a commanding opening day performance.
Charlton can also be backed at 10/3 after a great start under Nathan Jones, winning 1-0 at Wigan, while Lincoln look the value play at 11/2, under a fine coach in Michael Skubala.
It looks highly competitive, though, with so many teams aiming to be in the mix.
Relegation
Crawley Town remain 8/11 for the drop despite beginning with a 2-1 victory over Blackpool.
11/10 second-favourites are Paul Hurst’s Shrewsbury, who opened with a 1-0 defeat at Stevenage and will rely squarely on Aston Villa loanee Tommi O’Reilly for any sort of creativity.
Cambridge are also short in that regard, and could be vulnerable after two close shaves with the drop – the U’s are 11/8 to fall at the third hurdle.
Northampton enjoyed a safe, midtable season last year, after winning promotion from League Two, but could suffer from the losses of Sam Sherring, Marc Leonard and Kieron Bowie in defence, midfield and attack respectively, and are 13/8 to plummet.
We think Burton (9/4), Leyton Orient (5/2) and Stevenage (3/1) will all be fine this season, while Mansfield and Exeter (also 3/1) have boosted their chances by getting three points on the board nice and early.
League Two
Promotion
MK Dons have widened to 6/4 for promotion with Betfair after a 2-1 loss to Bradford, but they remain favourites and, having played well in that game and created a lot of chances, with Liam Kelly pulling the strings in midfield, Mike Williamson’s side should find form very soon.
Fellow Play-Off Semi-Finalists of last year, Doncaster continued their sumptuous form from the final quarter of 2023-24 into this campaign, and after a ruthless 4-1 victory over Accrington Stanley, including fine strikes from Luke Molyneux (x2), Jordan Gibson and Billy Sharp, they look a threat at 13/8.
Also 4-1 victors at the weekend were Gillingham, who swept aside fellow promotion aspirants Carlisle with a clinical attacking showing, something we haven’t associated with the Kent outfit prior to Mark Bonner’s summer appointment – they’re 2/1 to reach League One.
Chesterfield are 9/5 to attain back-to-back promotions, although Paul Cook’s star-studded squad could only manage a 1-1 draw with Swindon on opening night.
Port Vale are ones to watch at 11/5 after beginning with a 2-1 victory at Salford, as Darren Moore’s side benefit from the higher-level pedigree of George Byers in midfield.
Elsewhere, Notts County are 16/5 for promotion after being one of the best attacking sides in the league last season, and they’re hoping to remain that if Alassana Jatta can replace talisman Macaulay Langstaff, while they’ve strengthened defensively with fine additions like Jacob Bedeau.
Relegation
Morecambe are unfortunately a value play at 5/2 with Betfair for the drop because, while they do have their greatest ever manager in Derek Adams at the helm, they’re also plagued by financial uncertainty which has compromised the standard of their recruitment, and may yet incur a points deduction.
Harrogate Town, however, could be vulnerable, too, at 7/2, with question marks over the spine for Simon Weaver’s side, who aren’t expecting to be active in the remainder of the transfer window.
Accrington Stanley, on the other hand, look to be in for a struggle at 11/2 with bet365, with the mood around the club suffering from the careless treatment of legendary manager John Coleman – that mood may sour with a poor start.
Newport are 4/1 to drop through the EFL’s trapdoor under an unknown quantity in Nelson Jardim, although there can be some encouragement taken their performance in the 3-2 loss at Cheltenham, which deserved at least a point.
Swindon meanwhile, could be ones to plummet at 11/2, after ownership and structural issues led to their lowest ever finish last year – there’s a chance they could implode.
EFL Betting Tips from Gabriel Sutton
About Gab Sutton
Known for offering an expert opinion on all things EFL, Gab Sutton is a man to listen to when he talks about the Football League.
Every week, he brings his best picks in the form of Sutton’s Acca to mark your card for the weekend action.
On top of this, Gab also delivers a huge amount of insight into the EFL via his Twitter feed, so if you want to keep on top of what’s happening away from the Premier League then give Gab a follow on Twitter.
What is the EFL?
The EFL covers three of the four English leagues, consisting of the Championship, League One and League Two.
Each league has promotion and relegation, with the main goal for clubs being to get out of the Championship and up into the Premier League.
Coverage of the Premier League is everywhere, but here at Freebets, we want to focus on more than just top flight football. Thanks to the incredible knowledge Gabriel has, we’ve got an expert on hand to guide us through the Championship, League One and League Two every week of the season.
From battles at the bottom to those fighting for promotion, with three leagues, there is sure to be plenty of excitement in the 2024/25 season.
Championship Betting Tips
The second tier of English football, and the league often referred to as the toughest to gain promotion from in the world.
The prize is big, a place in the Premier League, arguably the greatest football league in the world.
But of course, everyone wants to get there. That makes the Championship highly competitive, and the 2024/25 season could well be the most competitive ever given the line up we have.
League One Betting Tips
League One comes in the middle of the pack, but has been home to a number of bigger names in recent years, and the coming season is no different.
The likes of Birmingham, Bolton, Barnsley, Charlton, Reading and Peterborough have records that show they can compete much higher, so once again, a tight finish to the season is expected.
League Two Betting Tips
League Two almost always offers a competitive environment at the top, with four teams promoted up into League One.
There’s plenty of focus points, but of course, the entire world will have eyes on Wrexham, finally back in the football league, with Hollywood ownership and ambitions to make it back-to-back promotions, they will grab 99% of the attention on this league, for sure.
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