Charlie's Weekend Wagers: Soft Risk Can Live Up To The Hype
The ground was described as good to soft at Kempton on Friday morning ahead of today’s feature meeting with a dry day forecast.
In the Dovecote Hurdle Shallwehaveonemore (3.00) is a warm order for Gary Moore having made all to land the odds at Sandown last time. His Bumper win on good ground here from Nicky Henderson’s Walking On Air on debut is top class form, and he will prefer today’s ground to underfoot conditions when he was beaten over 20L when fourth to Constitution Hill in the Grade 1 Tolworth on heavy ground last month.
The 5-y-old is currently 25/1 for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and 20/1 with Paddy Power Non Runner No Bet for the County Hurdle.
I am a huge fan of Tom Symond’s Moriko De Chassy and he would have been considered as an each way alternative were it not for the form of the stable whose string have been well below par in recent days.
Recommendation: Shallwehaveonemore 3.00 Sandown 11/10 with Bet365
The valuable Coral Handicap Chase is an ultra competitive heat as befits such a valuable prize. Phoenix Way did us a favour when scoring at Ascot last time and I am loathe to desert him although he has a bit to find with Annsam on his penultimate run. The latter is another to consider given he looks to have been laid out for this race by Evan Williams since that fluent success and the ground is coming in his favour.
Beakstown (3.37) won his sole point-to-point over three miles, and he has his first start at the trip under rules this afternoon. He will also appreciate today’s forecast ground and I hope to see him reward each way support for Dan and Harry Skelton. The selection has bits of chase form which suggest he could be well treated from his current mark although this will be the first time, he has raced right-handed over jumps which is a slight concern.
Recommendation: Beakstown 3.37 Sandown at 20/1 with Bet365 4 places or 16/1 with Betfred 5 places.
Solwara One (4.10) has more letters than numbers next to his name this season and connections aborted a chase career when reverting to hurdles last week and he had not been asked a serious question when coming down three out behind Sizable Sam.
A clear round back over timber would have been the primary objective last week and that may well be the case again today, but I like the booking of Sam Twiston Davies although the combination parted ways four out on the selection’s chase debut at Ffos Las earlier in the season.
The selection jumped right at Aintree in a valuable handicap hurdle at the Grand National meeting back in April, but he was bang there at the last and that was a stronger race than todays.
Recommendation: Solwarra One 4.10 Kempton each way at 16/1 with bet365.
Soft Risk (3.50) puts his unbeaten record on the line in the 2m handicap hurdle at Newcastle and I will be disappointed if he doesn’t run a big race from what looks an attractive mark of 123. Trained by Nicky Richards the selection looked smart when winning his sole Bumper at Ayr back in May and has won all three starts in minor company over timber.
The 6-y-old will make a nice chaser in time but he can take this nice prize before being put away when the ground dries out in the spring. The two Donald McCain trained runners in the field should ensure a decent test although the main danger looks likely to come from bottom weight Lively Citizen who has won two of his last three starts. His trainer suggested after his latest victory at Leicester that he would target next month’s Imperial Cup and he will need to win again if he is to get into the race.
Recommendation: Soft Risk 3.50 Newcastle 11/8 with bet365
Debece (4.25) drops back in trip to 2m 4f and I expect to see David England be more positive on the 11-year-old than was the case on his reappearance when he travelled in lane eight throughout under Harry Skelton and could never get competitive in the Skybet Chase at Doncaster.
He is refitted with cheekpieces this afternoon having run very well at Sandown with this aid on his first start for Dan Skelton back in March. This is last chance saloon for a horse who has never quite fulfilled his potential, but I have long thought he was worth a try at this intermediate trip.
Recommendation: Debece 4.25 Newcastle at 9/4 with bet365
Two of my three antepost selections – Burrows Saint (4.18) and Escaria Ten – for the Grand National go head-to-head in the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse and I hope to see the Willie Mullins horse prevail in what is a genuine trial for Aintree with Ted Walsh’s Any Second Now – third in the great race last year – having to concede his two main rivals 6lbs.
Escaria Ten is fitted with blinkers for the first time this afternoon and Jordan Gainford takes over in the saddle with Adrian Heskin out of action at present, but Burrows Saint might have too much pace for the Gordon Elliot trained gelding in what could be the most informative race of the weekend.
Recommendation: Burrows Saint 4.18 Fairyhouse
