Alan Kelly’s Horse Racing Tips
Alan has tips from Beverley & Thirsk on Tuesday
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Alan Kelly’s Horse Racing Tips
We head to North Yorkshire for Tuesday’s horse racing selections, Beverley in the afternoon and Thirsk in the evening.
The ground at both courses is currently described as good to firm, good in places.
Nap - Tiva (8:00pm Thirsk)
Narrowly beaten on her last two starts, David O’Meara’s consistent filly is fancied to record her second victory in a race which should be run to suit.
3:30pm Beverley - Homeland
This mile and a quarter Class 5 handicap may rest between those contenders from the Classic generation, in particular Mark Walford’s Quirke On Parole, bottom weight Heartened from the Ollie Pears stable and the Michael Dods-trained HOMELAND.
The first two finished first and third respectively over today’s course and distance last month, Kevin Stott’s mount coming out on top in a race where the first four horses home were covered by only one length. On 2lb better terms, Heartened could easily reverse that form on today’s revised terms.
However, I think this is a good opportunity for Michael Dods’ Homeland to finally get his head in front at the 8th time of asking. Following three modest efforts as a juvenile, the son of Land Force was gelded in the autumn prior to making his handicap debut at Ripon in April when beating all bar Hugo Palmer’s Triple Double A, the winner going on to further victories on his next two starts at Yarmouth and Windsor.
While Connor Beasley’s mount managed to beat only one home at Doncaster on his next outing, Homeland stumbled badly when clipping heels with a rival in the early stages of the race, after which the horse was never really travelling. Stepping up to today’s trip at Wetherby and Haydock on his two most recent starts, the selection did enough on both occasions to suggest he is more than capable of winning a race of this nature off a mark of only 61.
Recommendation: Homeland - 10/3 with bet365
6:00pm Thirsk - Calafiori
The two horses heading the weights for this 5f nursery, Richard Hannon’s Sinj and CALAFIORI from the George Boughey stable, both go into tonight’s race on the back of disappointing efforts last time. The former beat only one horse home when 13th as the 4/1 second favourite in a Newbury maiden last month, Sean Levey’s mount weakening out of contention inside the last couple of furlongs.
The latter’s comprehensive defeat at Nottingham can be put down to the fact that the son of Ardad did far too much up front, the gelding weakening inside the final furlong after leading 3 out. Billy Loghnane’s mount is better judged on his two previous efforts, in particular when finishing second to Richard Hughes’ Shaman Champion in a Leicester maiden, the winner going on to finish a creditable 9th in the Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot, earning a rating of 83 in the process.
Providing Calafiori settles better than he did at Nottingham, an opening handicap mark of 67 could prove on the lenient side. Richard Spencer’s Mwaki may have been flattered when finishing second in a four-runner Yarmouth nursery earlier in the month, a bigger danger to Calafiori possibly being that of John & Sean Quinn’s Dakota Dawn, third in a Ripon maiden last time, the runner-up going on to land our nap at Yarmouth last week.
Recommendation: Calafiori - 5/1 with bet365
8:00pm Thirsk - Tiva (Nap)
Tim Easterby’s Marajito got off the mark with an all-the-way victory in a maiden handicap at Redcar last month. David Allan’s mount is expected to take the field along once again in this Class 5 handicap over the minimum trip, but will find this tougher racing off a 7lb higher mark.
Adrian Nicholls’ Tees Aggregates,a winner at Catterick in May, wasn’t disgraced when 10th in Epsom’s 3-Y-O Dash on Derby Day, just under three lengths behind the 6th horse home, Glorious Kitty, who reopposes on 2lb worse terms. Both horses are capable of taking a hand in the finish, along with Michael Dods’ Brazilian Belle. But this looks an excellent opportunity for David O’Meara’s TIVA (Nap) to supplement her May victory at Hamilton following several creditable efforts in defeat.
After finishing 4th in a Class 4 handicap at Goodwood last month, the Mehmas filly has been narrowly beaten in 5f handicaps at Redcar and Doncaster, on the latter occasion staying-on to finish a half length third following a slow start. Daniel Tudhope’s mount is visored for the first time and is expected to take plenty of beating off a mark of 72.
Recommendation: Tiva (Nap) - 11/4 with bet365
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
You can follow Alan Kelly on Twitter for more racing insight.
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