Alan Kelly’s Horse Racing Tips for Monday 7th November

A slightly disappointing start to the month, with a small loss of £2.80 for the first five days of November. Although our profit since the beginning of September still runs at +£105.27 to a £1 level stake.

Things could have been a lot healthier on Saturday however as our two 12/1 tips for the big handicaps, Aintree’s Grand Sefton Chase (Gesskille) and November Handicap (Teed Up) both ran really well in finishing second. The former looked particularly unlucky, as Henry Brooke’s mount would have been in front in another stride.

A fabulous three days of national hunt action to look forward to at Cheltenham this weekend and while the quality of Monday’s jump action from Carlisle and Kempton may fall some way short of what we can expect at Prestbury Park, both meetings have plenty to offer.

“Tip of the Day” - Garry Clermont (1.45pm Carlisle) - 15/8 with Paddy Power

Trainer Jonjo O’Neill has an excellent record when sending his horses to the Cumbrian racecourse and he can get the chasing career of this talented hurdler back on track with a victory in this 2m 4f novices’ limited handicap.

Alan Kelly's Nap Of The Day

1.45pm Carlisle

Jonjo O'Neill has an excellent record at the Cumbrian track

Get 15/8 on Garry Clermont with Paddy Power

At 15/8 a £10 bet would return £28.75

Carlisle

November 07, 2022

1:45 pm GMT

1.45pm Carlisle, 2m 4f - Garry Clermont (Nap)

Rated 141 when last seen over hurdles at Aintree’s Grand National meeting, the Jonjo O’Neill-trained GARRY CLERMONT was unlucky not to have landed a decent prize over the smaller obstacles last season and the seven-year-old now reverts back to fences following the gelding’s two attempts at chasing around this time two years ago.

The mount of Jonjo O’Neill Jr was challenging strongly for the lead on his chasing debut here in October 2020 when almost falling at the second-last fence, eventually going down by just over five lengths in sixth place. He was beaten less than three lengths on his other attempt over fences at Chepstow the following month, again not getting the rub of the green when suffering interference jumping the final fence.

Garry Clermont still has the potential to make his mark as a chaser and off a mark 5lb lower than over hurdles, the selection, who comes from a stable with an excellent record at the track, can make the most of the 4lb he receives from main rival Nells Son.

Alan Kelly's Nap Of The Day

1.45pm Carlisle

Jonjo O'Neill has an excellent record at the Cumbrian track

Get 15/8 on Garry Clermont with Paddy Power

At 15/8 a £10 bet would return £28.75

Carlisle

November 07, 2022

1:45 pm GMT

3.05pm Kempton, 2m 5f - Captain Morgs (Next Best)

Only seven runners for this Pertemps Qualifier but a decent contest all the same. The last time top weight Fiddlerontheroof was seen, Joe Tizzard’s charge was finishing fifth behind Noble Yeats in the Grand National. Bold Plan would prefer softer ground and will almost certainly come on for the run, while Call Me Lord is not the force of old, having not troubled the judge for almost three years.

Alan King’s Jay Bee Why makes some appeal off a mark of 130. But the combination of recent wind surgery and a return to hurdling could work the trick for Nicky Henderson’s CAPTAIN MORG who was in good form around this time last year, winning a hot handicap at Ascot along with excellent placed efforts at Cheltenham and Newbury.

Nico de Boinville’s mount has a good record fresh and off a mark only 1lb higher than when beating all bar winner Paddys Motorbike at Aintree back in May, makes plenty of appeal.

Alan Kelly's Next Best

3.05pm Kempton

Nicky Henderson’s Captain Morgs appeals at 'Burlington Bertie 100/30'

Get 10/3 on Captain Morgs with William Hill

At 10/3 a £10 bet would return £43.33

Kempton Park

November 07, 2022

3:05 pm GMT

3.50pm Carlisle, 2m 4f - Without Conviction (Each Way)

The hat-trick seeking Big Changes posts obvious claims in this 2m 4f handicap chase with the assistance of 7lb claimer Lewis Dobb. Laura Morgan’s charge is now a stone higher than when opening his account at Sedgefield last month however and is worth taking on with the Lucinda Russell-trained WITHOUT CONVICTION (e.w.).

The seven-year-old’s sole victory in seven attempts over fences came at Hexham last December on heavy ground, conditions which suited the mare perfectly. The ground at the Cumbrian racecourse is currently described as soft but with the forecast of rain on the day of the race.

Without Conviction races off a mark only 3lb higher than when recording that Hexham win, was staying-on in third place when making her reappearance at that racecourse last month, and has the services of decent 5lb claiming jockey Alan Doyle. An opening show of 6/1 looks fair enough in a race where worthwhile recent form is thin on the ground.

Alan's Tip

3.50pm Carlisle

Without Conviction should appreciate the underfoot conditions

Get 11/2 on Without Conviction (e.w.) with bet365

At 11/2 a £10 win bet would return £65

Carlisle

November 07, 2022

3:50 pm GMT

* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.

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