Alan Kelly’s Horse Racing Tips

Horse racing tips for Hamilton, Leopardstown & Epsom on Thursday

Updated: July 16, 2025 at 7:17 pm GMT+1

Get fresh daily selections and a standout Nap of the Day from our in-house racing expert, Alan Kelly.

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Latest Profit & Loss Figures

We ended last week with a total of 10 winners, including successes at 14/1, 12/1 and 15/2, resulting in a healthy profit of +£35.58 to a £1 level stake.

I thought Saturday’s July Cup was ripe for a potential upset, unfortunately, I went for the wrong two outsiders, despite having napped the winner, No More Measures, when Richard Hughes’ charge finished second at Haydock on her previous start. No complaints though, on an otherwise excellent six days.

  • P/L for the week ending Saturday 12th July: +£35.58
  • P/L for the year 2025 to date: +£17.09
  • P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
  • P/L since 1st September 2022: +£503.08

Alan Kelly’s Horse Racing Tips

Currently described as good, the ground is likely to ease for Hamilton Park’s meeting on Thursday afternoon with the forecast of light rain throughout the day.

Good to firm conditions are expected for the other four flat meetings taking place, Leicester and Chepstow in the afternoon and Epsom and Leopardstown in the evening.


Nap - Crimson Spirit (8:05pm Epsom)

Richard Kingscote’s mount, a course and distance winner at two, is expected to complete a hat-trick of wins following victories at Salisbury and Brighton last month..


3:22pm Hamilton - Theoryofeverything

Roger Varian’s Frankel colt Sallaal has been installed the 5/4 favourite with William Hill to take this extended one mile contest on the three-year-old’s handicap debut. An opening mark of 97 seems high enough for Ray Dawson’s mount, who was far from impressive in winning a Novice Stakes over today’s course and distance back in May at odds of 1/3.

Sallaal also looked far from straightforward on that occasion, the market leader unseating his rider twice on the way to the start. A well beaten fifth at Newmarket on his previous start, I prefer the chances of David O’Meara’s THEORYOFEVERYTHING and jockey Daniel Tudhope.

Another son of Frankel, the five-year-old will appreciate the rain that is forecast at the Scottish track and comes here on the back of two excellent efforts this season. An unlucky fourth at Haydock on his reappearance (rider dropped whip), the grey made no mistake at Ayr on his most recent start earlier this month when defying top weight of 10st 4lb.

While a 5lb penalty for that victory will make things tougher for the selection, he is sure to run his race, unlike several of his rivals, in particular Ed Walker’s English Oak, who has proved very disappointing so far this season..

Recommendation: Theoryofeverything - 10/3 with bet365


6:52pm Leopardstown - Purview

The ground will need to ease considerably from the current good to firm description for David Loughnane’s soft/heavy ground specialist Sparks Fly to have a serious chance of taking this Group 3 Meld Stakes. Unless Leopardstown gets more rain than expected, this nine furlong contest should concern Joseph O’Brien’s Galen and PURVIEW from the Dermot Weld stable, although Ballydoyle’s Expanded takes a big drop in class after failing to make an impact in both Guineas (Newmarket & Curragh).

Galen is the highest rated of the seven contenders and was last seen finishing a three quarters of a length second to Haatem in Royal Ascot’s Wolferton Stakes, the Gleneagles gelding having previously taken the scalp of a less-than-forward Jan Brueghel (only horse to have beaten the St Leger/Coronation Cup winner so far) in the Alleged Stakes back in April.

While Dylan Browne McMonagle’s mount is  sure to prove a tough nut to crack, I think the concession of 12lb to the unexposed Juddmonte-owned Purview  may just prove beyond Joseph O’Brien’s runner. By Kingman and out of a Sea The Stars Listed winning mare, Colin Keane’s mount is certainly bred to be good, justifying market confidence when winning a maiden at Dundalk on his debut last November.

Making his reappearance in Leopardstown’s Group 3 Cashel Palace Hotel Derby Trial two months ago, Purview was no match for subsequent Eclipse winner Delacroix but still managed to finish four lengths in front of the third horse home, Tennessee Stud, third and fourth respectively in the Derby’s at Epsom and the Curragh.

On just his third career start, connections will be hoping for Purview to make his mark in Group company as the season progresses and can start with a victory in this fascinating renewal, named in honour of the English Fillies Triple Crown winner of 1955.

Recommendation: Purview - 15/8 with William Hill


8:05pm Epsom - Crimson Spirit (Nap)

The Daniel & Claire Kubler-trained CRIMSON SPIRIT (Nap) recorded a first victory when beating odds-on favourite Get Jiggy With It over today’s course and distance as a two-year-old back in August 2023, the son of Harry Angel going on to finish second and third at Epsom 12 months later, the gelding possibly unsuited by the heavy ground on the latter occasion.

Richard Kingscote’s mount has been in excellent form following a break of 261 days, first of all when finishing 3rd of 21 in a Class 4 handicap at York on the final day of May. The four-year-old is now on a hat-trick after recording wins at Salisbury and Brighton last month.

The selection only had a neck to spare over fellow rival Revolutionise at Brighton, but should have little trouble confirming that form on 1lb worse terms, as that four-runner contest failed to show Crimson Spirit at his best in what became a tactical affair. At the age of nine, the runner-up is well exposed, unlike the winner.

A bigger danger to Crimson Spirit is likely to come in the shape of George Baker’s Mafnood, runner-up to Archie Watson’s Aurora Majesty over today’s course and distance earlier in the month after being slowly away, with top weight Brave Empire back in fourth place.

Recommendation: Crimson Spirit (Nap) - 11/10 with bet365


* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.


Check out more from the Freebets horse racing hub, including tips, stats, market movers and today’s racecards!

Alan Kelly’s Horse Racing Tips
Charlie McCann’s Horse Racing Tips
Horse Racing Lucky 15 Tips for Today
Horse Racing Market Movers - Today’s Best Backed Horses
Horse Racing Stats & Trends - Today’s Key Pointers
Longest Travelled Horses Today
UK and Ireland Racecards for Today
Placepot Tips Today
Nap of the Day – Today’s Best Horse Racing NAPs from Our Experts

About Alan Kelly

A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.

A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.

You can follow Alan Kelly on Twitter for more racing insight.


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Alan Kelly

Alan Kelly

A successful punter, with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights down the years including a scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining freebets.com.

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